At the end of 2021, the dump truck market is the most promising segment of the heavy truck market in 2022.
As one of the most promising segments, the heavy duty dump truck market in 2022 is obviously disappointing. It has not only suffered a series of sharp declines, but also an average decline of 81% from January to August 2022. After August, the cumulative sales decline has reached 84%, making it the worst performing segment; On the other hand, the process of new energy utilization of heavy-duty dump trucks is quite fast (the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 9.2% from January to August, more than twice the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in the terminal sales of heavy trucks), and the competition pattern of the heavy-duty dump truck market has also changed due to its high penetration rate of new energy. Therefore, although this subdivided field has suffered a series of falls, there are still some interesting points and highlights.
Will the continuous landing of heavy dump trucks continue in September? Are there any new highlights?
2962 vehicles sold in September, a month on month increase of 3%, a year-on-year decrease of less than 70% for the first time
According to the terminal sales data (traffic insurance coverage, excluding exports and military vehicles) held by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in September 2022, the domestic heavy dump truck market sold 2962 vehicles, an increase of 3% month on month (MoM) and a decrease of 65% year on year (YoY). The decrease was less than 80% for two consecutive months and then narrowed further (74% and 71% YoY respectively in July and August). The year-on-year decrease of 65% has been the smallest drop in the heavy dump truck market this year, It is also the first time this year that the decline rate of the heavy dump truck market is less than 70%. The heavy duty dump truck market has sold less than 3000 vehicles for two consecutive months. According to the analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the heavy duty dump truck market in September created the minimum decline in the monthly sales of less than 3000 vehicles, which is not contradictory. The low sales volume is due to the sluggish demand, and the minimum decline is due to the low sales volume in the same period (less than 9000 vehicles, the third lowest monthly sales volume last year). In this "same period", the demand of dump truck market is extremely bleak. So far, the heavy dump truck market has expanded to "15 consecutive drops" from the second half of 2021, with an average drop of 79% from January to September this year.
From the monthly trend of domestic heavy duty dump truck terminal sales in recent three years, the red line representing 2022 has been at a low level. The sales volume of less than 3000 units in August and September this year is a complete bottom performance. The average monthly sales volume from January to September is only more than 4100 units. You should know that the average sales volume of dump truck market in the second half of last year also exceeded 9000 units when the "six consecutive drops" occurred. It can be seen from the above figure that from July to October last year, the heavy dump truck market showed a significant month on month decline (72%, 21% and 15% month on month in July, August and September respectively). The sales volume in September has dropped to less than 9000 vehicles. However, even though the sales volume in the same period has been low, today's even more pitiful demand is still unable to sustain a "growth". In the last three months of 2021, the average monthly sales volume of heavy-duty dump truck market is about 8000 units. According to the current market situation, there is almost no chance of success. If there is no substantial positive stimulus to demand, this year's continuous decline in the heavy dump truck market will continue.
Tractors, natural gas heavy trucks and other market segments hit the bottom in April, and began to "rebound" in May. In recent months, the cumulative sales decline has narrowed month by month, but the dump truck market has not followed the same path as other market segments. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the dump truck market has been expanding all the way this year. After June, the cumulative decline has reached 85%. After July, the cumulative decline has stabilized at 85%. After August, the cumulative decline has finally narrowed slightly by 1 percentage point. After September, the cumulative decline has narrowed by 1 percentage point. However, the cumulative decline of the dump truck market from January to September, which exceeded 80%, is still the worst in all segments of the heavy truck market. In terms of figures, the performance of the heavy dump truck market from January to September this year is undoubtedly surprising and disappointing.
Dongfeng won the first two "fierce battles" of Heavy Truck/Fukuda on the monthly list
In September, the domestic heavy dump truck terminal market dropped 65% year on year, and the mainstream enterprises (the top 10 in sales) in the heavy dump truck market shared 89.87% of the total market share.
In September, the year-on-year decline of the heavy duty dump truck market narrowed by 6 percentage points compared with that in August, but 65% of the year-on-year decline still falls into the category of big drop. Many enterprises saw a decline of more than 60%. The sales of the top ten enterprises with the worst decline in sales in September fell by 85% year on year. However, Dongfeng, Foton, Dayun and other enterprises saw a decline significantly lower than the overall decline of the market, outperforming the "market"; At the same time, some enterprises in the dump truck market finally achieved growth in September. The sales volume of Sany Group in September increased by 65% year on year. In addition, Zhejiang UFO, which ranked 11th in the monthly list in September, also increased by 56% year on year.
In September, no enterprise in the heavy duty dump truck market had a monthly sales volume of more than 1000, and no enterprise in the heavy duty dump truck market had a monthly sales volume of more than 1000 for six consecutive months. Dongfeng Company, with 637 vehicles and a monthly share of 21.51%, won the first place in the heavy duty dump truck market in terms of monthly sales volume, which is the 10th consecutive month since December last year that Dongfeng ranked first in this segment; In September, Sinotruk and Foton sold 387 and 320 heavy dump trucks, ranking second and third respectively, with the difference of less than 100 vehicles. The monthly share was 13.07% and 10.8% respectively; The fourth ranked Jiefang sold 275 dump trucks in September, with a monthly share of 9.28%; In September, Shaanxi Automobile and Hongyan both sold 238 vehicles, ranking fifth, with a monthly share of 8.04%. In September, only 3 enterprises in the heavy dump truck market had a share of more than 10%, and the total share of the top five enterprises (6 enterprises) in the sales volume reached 70.73%.
New energy vehicles accounted for 9.61% from January to September, and they continued to stir up the industry pattern
From January to September this year, the domestic heavy duty dump truck market sold 37000 units, down 83% year on year. The cumulative decline was 1 percentage point smaller than that in the previous August (- 84%), a net decrease of 183000 units compared with the same period last year, which is only about 17% of the sales in the same period last year. After September, the sales ranking of heavy dump truck terminals this year has changed a lot compared with that at the end of last year: Dongfeng and Heavy Truck, which ranked second and third at the end of last year, temporarily ranked the top two in the industry after September; FAW Jiefang has risen from No. 5 at the end of last year to No. 4 in the current industry; Futian and Universiade also rose from the 6th and 7th positions at the end of last year to the 5th and 6th positions in the industry; Last year, Sany Group, which had no name in the top ten of the year-end sales list, broke into the top ten, temporarily ranking the eighth in the industry with the cumulative sales of 1330 vehicles.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 6 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to September this year achieved an increase in share, with Dongfeng and Dayun having the largest share growth, up 4.47% and 3.55% respectively; The cumulative share of Sany Group also increased by more than 2%, an increase of 2.45 percentage points; Futian, XCMG and the Third Ring Road increased by 1.14%, 0.62% and 0.56% respectively; If we expand the scope a little, Yutong, which currently ranks 11th in terms of cumulative sales, has increased its share in the heavy dump truck market by 1.78 percentage points from January to September this year compared with the same period last year.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period of last year, only two of the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales from January to September this year remained unchanged; Dongfeng, Jiefang, Futian, Universiade, Sany, XCMG and other six enterprises rose in the ranking, among which Dongfeng rose from the third place in the industry in the same period last year to the first place in the industry at present; Jiefang, Fukuda and Universiade all rose one place; Sany and XCMG rushed into the top 10 of the industry from the top 10 in the same period last year, of which Sany rose to the current 8th from the 12th in the same period, and XCMG rose to the 10th from the 11th in the same period; At present, Yutong, which ranks 11th in the industry temporarily, has risen rapidly from the top 20 in the same period last year (from January to September last year, Yutong only sold 57 vehicles). At the same time, more than one enterprise's industry ranking from January to September this year declined compared with the same period last year.
Sany, XCMG and Yutong, the three enterprises, are in the top position in the heavy dump truck industry this year, which has a great correlation with the new energy transformation of the dump truck industry. The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that 3553 of the 37000 heavy duty dump trucks in the terminal sales from January to September of this year were new energy vehicles, accounting for 9.61%, 2.3 times of the new energy heavy trucks in the heavy truck terminal sales in the previous September (4.1%), and the highest proportion of new energy in the heavy truck market. From January to September this year, the "penetration" of new energy models in the dump truck field is very fast. You should know that in 2021, new energy models will account for less than 1% of the dump truck market in the whole year, while from January to September last year, this figure was only 0.35%.
This year, the fuel type structure of the heavy truck market has changed greatly compared with that of last year, and this is also the case in the dump truck field. It can be seen from the above figure that from January to September this year, although diesel power is still the fuel type with the highest proportion in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks, it has significantly decreased by more than 10 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The total share of new energy vehicles (hybrid, fuel cell and pure electric) increased by 9.26 percentage points, of which the pure electric dump truck was the most prominent, with an increase of 8.93% over the same period last year; In addition, the proportion of heavy duty dump truck terminal sales from January to September this year also increased by 0.93 percentage points. The expansion of the proportion of new energy vehicles is stirring the industrial pattern of heavy dump trucks.
It can be seen from the above figure that among the top 12 enterprises in terms of heavy dump truck terminal sales from January to September this year, Sany, Xugong and Yutong accounted for a very high proportion of new energy models, reaching 52.63%, 82% and 98.2% respectively. It is worth mentioning that Sany, Xugong and Yutong are also the top three enterprises in terms of new energy dump trucks from January to September; At the same time, the new energy accounts for more than 5% of the sales of dump trucks of top enterprises in the industries such as Jiefang and Hongyan from January to September, and both Dongfeng and Foton dump trucks account for more than 2% of the new energy models. Among them, the new energy models of Jiefang dump trucks account for 5.11%, which is the brand with the highest proportion of new energy among the top 5 heavy dump truck enterprises. According to the analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, under the background of the national "dual carbon strategy", new energy vehicles have become a new competitive point in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks. Enterprises are still increasing their investment in new energy dump trucks. The market pattern of heavy-duty dump trucks is constantly changing because of this new competitive point.
From January to September 2022, the heavy dump truck market has suffered a sharp decline in succession. This segment, which was once considered the most promising segment of the heavy truck market this year, has never shown its "standard" under the multiple influences of sluggish demand, less than expected project commencement, epidemic situation, etc. Next, the above impact is still there. When will the pent up demand be "realized"? Is still unknown; On the other hand, whether the new energy dump truck, which accounted for 9.61% of the total sales of dump truck terminals from January to September, can continue to grow at a high speed, is the focus of the heavy dump truck market.
