In July, the sales volume sales decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, the export sales, the sales demand H2 or the Marginal Improvement Consultation Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of the excavator industry is 24.12 million units perYy +27.2%, including July-79 The monthly excavator sales of 1.7 million units /YOY-9.2% (the season-adjusted diameter decreased by 1.1% year-on-year), with export 5,016 台 /YY + 75.6%. We judge that Q3 has improved the ring-based, main system: 1) On July 30th, the Politburo Conference clarified the importance of the fiscal policy, and the government's special debt issuance is expected to accelerate, and the inverse cycle adjustment of infrastructure investment is expected to be gradually highlighted; 2) Recently, the construction rate of mine in the northern region is increased, and the demand for large digging is expected to improve. Maintaining the growth of the sales of the invavator industry in the 2021 digonics industry, the sales fluctuations in the medium and long-term industry or tend to be smooth, optimistic about the current valuation level of the construction machinery sector, we believe that the sector has a configuration value.
The domestic growth rate fluctuation system is started, and the global competitiveness of the leading enterprise continues to strengthen the domestic sales of 20.6 million domestic sales in July / YOY +19.7%, July, the sales volume of the single month is 12,000 units /YOY-24.1%. Sales of product sales, July domestic large digging sales 1,940 units /YOY-26.4%, medium digging 3,576 台 /YOY-21.1%, small digging 6,813 台 /YOY-25.0%. We believe that mainly, the project started this year, compared with last year, the releasing time of excavator is not completely matched, resulting in a large amount of data, but the cumulative data is still reflected in this year's sales demand with toughness. From January to July, China's export excavators were 35,100 / YOY+102.1%, July single month export 5,016 units /YOY + 75.6%, and excavator exports still maintain high-speed growth. With the promotion of domestic enterprises and overseas gradually recover from the epidemic, we believe that this year's excavator export is expected to grow rapidly.
July National excavator starting rate and average working hours have been improved in January to June, and the total amount of real estate investment has accumulated a year of 15.00%, and the total investment (excluding electricity) completion is 7.80% year-on-year. According to Iron, July 2021, the overall excavator of the country is about 88.0%, and 0.56 PCT is increased from 0.56 PCT, and it is significantly higher than 67.8% in the same period of 2019. In July 2021, the average number of hours of the national excavator was 119.7 hours, and the ring was slightly improved (June: 117 hours). The working capacity of the excavator and the operating rate have both marginal improvement in June, reflecting the improvement trend of downstream demand.
Mining gradually complex, and H2 infrastructure investment is expected to speed up, expected to pull the demand demand marginal improvement construction machinery industry association data show that the total number of sales in July-7900 units /YOY + 5.6%, sales growth rate is lower than the overall internal sales Speed Mainly Q2 is affected by the mine commission. With the recent recent Northern regional mine completion and starting rate, Q3 is expected to improve marginal improvement. At the same time, on July 30th, the Politburo meeting proposed that active fiscal policies should improve policy effectiveness, reasonably grasp the progress of budget investment and local government bond issuance, and promote the formation of physical work in early year, emphasize the promotion of "14th Five-Year Plan" Major engineering project construction. According to WIND, July, the national issued local government new bonds approximately 1.88 trillion yuan, accounting for only about 42% of the limit, the issuance is slow, the second half of the year is expected to accelerate, pull the infrastructure investment growth, and support the second half of the year Construction machinery needs.
Adjust, the value of the valuation is high, the plate cost performance is high, optimistic about the development of the domestic leading globalization as of August 8, the domestic main plant is 10 times the 10x value (Wind consistently), lower than Caterpillar / Small Song Same PE The average value is 16 times (Peng Bo consistently), the plate PE TTM is at the lowest 2% positioning at 2014, and the plate cost performance is high. We believe that the construction machinery industry is stronger in this round cycle, and the operating conditions of the industrial chain are healthier, and the sales fluctuations in the long-term industry have stable, we are full of confidence in the global competitiveness of the China Construction Machinery Industry. The global competitiveness of the leader is expected to continue to increase, and the long-term growth potential of domestic brands is large, optimistic about the current valuation level of the engineering machinery.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is not expected; domestic economic downturn is expected; the investment of infrastructure and real estate investment is not expected; the industry's competitive environment has deteriorated; the raw material is super-expected price increase.
