1. Construction machinery definition
China Construction Machinery Industry Product range is mainly from the general equipment manufacturing profession and special equipment manufacturing industry. In 1979, the National Planning Commission and the First Machinery Industry have developed the "Seventy-five" development plan for the China Construction Machinery Industry, which covers 18 major types of products in engineering machinery industry, and after the "Seventy-five" development plan. The national machinery industrial industry plan has confirmed 18 major types of products in construction machinery. Mainly used in national defense construction projects, transportation construction, energy industry construction and production, mining raw materials industry construction and production, agricultural and forestry water conservancy construction, industrial and civil architecture, urban construction, environmental protection and other fields.
2. Construction Current Situation of Construction Machinery Industry
Since the application range of construction machinery is mainly for large engineering and infrastructure construction, there is a certain inverse cycle regulation characteristic. With the implementation of projects such as rail transit in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan, as well as related programs such as urban internal transformation, urban village transformation, and the continuous introduction of urban village transformation, future construction machinery will gradually go out of the epidemic, and new high.
Domestic construction machinery sales continues to rise. With the rapid economic development of the domestic economy, the construction machinery industry has been growing in the construction and mechanical industry since 2015, sales have grown year-on-year for four consecutive years. Domestic engineering machinery companies continue to increase research and development, improve technical level, continuously narrow the gap between similar companies, and achieved partial transcendence, in 2019, China's construction machinery sales revenue reached 660 billion yuan, and it is expected that my country's construction machinery sales revenue in 2021 It is expected to break through 700 billion yuan.
The growth of the construction machinery industry is mainly reflected in the growth of product sales. It can be seen from the sales data of various types of engineering machinery in the past years, and the number of forklifts has always occupied the most position. The sales volume of the forked 2020 has reached 80.02 million sets of historical high, and the excavator is still the sales value of various types. The total amount of largest variety.
Xugong, three, Zhonglian Heavy Industry, 2021yellow Table, the top five. From the 20201yellow table, the 20201Yellow Table, published by the KHL Group, was founded in 2020, 2020, is $ 24.824 billion, and the market share accounts for 13.0%, and the world's first position will continue to be maintained. The ranking of the small Song Songying is $ 19.995 billion, accounting for 10.4% of the market share. In the top 50 companies, there are 10 companies in China, which are in the top of Xugong, Sanyi Heavy Industry, Zhonglian Kee, Liugong, China Longgong, Mountain River Intelligence, Mountain Shares, Futian Lovo, Zhejiang Dingli and Xiamen, Among them, Xugong , Trinity Heavy Industry and Zoomlion are located at 3, 4, 5.
2.1 Environmental Policy is charming, accelerating engineering mechanical and electrical infiltration
In terms of policy, the construction machinery industry is mainly affected by the mobility of downstream infrastructure, real estate policies and environmental policies.
2.1.1 Infrastructure Policy
2020 first raised "two new" construction, and accelerated the new infrastructure project in all parts. my country will continue to implement the expansion of domestic demand strategy, promote economic development, and focus on "two new" construction, "two new" buildings that have both consumption of people's livelihood and adjustment, and the main situation:
1. Strengthen new infrastructure construction, develop a new generation of information networks, expand 5G applications, build charging piles, promote new energy vehicles, stimulate new consumer demand, and help industry upgrades.
2. Strengthen new urbanization construction, vigorously enhance public facilities and service capabilities in the county, to adapt to the growing demand for farmers to enter the county employment. Newly started to transform the town's old community 39,000, supporting various community services such as the installation of elevators, development dining, cleaning.
3. Strengthen major engineering construction such as transportation and water conservancy. Increase the national railway construction capital of 100 billion yuan.
In August of the same year, many places in the country responded to national policies, and successively introduced a series of heavy files that support new infrastructure construction and accelerated the landing of the new infrastructure project.
2021 local government special debt of 3.65 trillion yuan. The infrastructure construction investment promoted by local government special debts is the main driving force of the growth of construction machinery. The special debt issuance of my country has been 2.15, 3.3.65 trillion yuan, considering the debt level control requirements after stimulus. Further growth in future special bonds is small, and 3.65 trillion in 2021 is in the peak level.
We believe that the construction of infrastructure construction and old community renovation in urban construction environment will further drive small construction machinery requirements, considering the continuous rise in labor costs, the machine will have a high cost performance, future construction machinery sales Small construction machinery will continue to increase. With the continued landing of the foundation investment projects, 2021 construction machinery will remain at a higher level.
2.1.2 Real Estate Policy
Real estate investment continues to warm, and the growth rate of new start-up area is gradually narrowed. Affected by the epidemic in the last quarter, the new construction area and real estate investment growth in the early years have greatly increased, as of June, the new construction area of houses is 10,1288,400 square meters, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, basically flat 2019 In the same period level; real estate investment, as of June 2021, my country's real estate development investment completion amount is 7.217907 billion yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year, although the growth rate in the beginning of the year, it has also narrowed the situation, but compared with the epidemic It is still higher than 110 billion yuan in the same period in 2019, indicating that my country's real estate investment remains back to warm.
The room is not fried, lease and purchase, and persist in three stable regulation goals is the future real estate policy direction. The State Council clearly pointed out that the position of "living room does not speculate" is clearly pointed out in the "Guidance of the National New Area to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Accelement", and It is forbidden to develop large-scale disorderly real estate development. At the same time, the State-owned Assets Committee issued a text enterprise to carry out commercial real estate investment. In terms of finance, the Bank of China issued the "Guidance Opinions on Promoting the High Quality Development of Banking and Insurance", requiring strict implementation of real estate financial supervision requirements, preventing funds from flowing into the real estate market, suppressing the leverage of the residents and promoting the health of the real estate market steady development. It can be seen that there is no change in the long-term policy direction of the real estate industry, and the house is not fried, and the rent is raised, and the three stable regulation goals, and these states are still the main principles of the future real estate industry.
Real estate corporate financing policies are gradually zoomed. On August 20, 2020, the Ministry of Housing and Construction held a focus on key housing and enterprises. It was proposed to manage real estate financing with the "three red lines". Specifically: the asset-liability rate after elimination of pre-receipts is greater than 70%; the net debt ratio is greater than 100%; cash short debt ratio is less than 1 times, and the non-standard housing enterprise will affect the scale of financing next year. According to the 2020 annual annual number of years, the three indicators have only 20 housing companies.
The land investment in the real estate enterprises is rational, and the real estate investment is still tough in the short term. The most direct and fastest influence indicators of financing policies is the land purchase area of the housing and enterprises. In June 2021, the land purchase area of the real estate industry decreased by 18.27% year-on-year. Since March, the situation has been reduced, and it is described under the influence of financing. Huaning. From the low price of land sales, the average price increase of land transactions in June 100 increased by 18.31% year-on-year, the increase was 34.57 percentage points from last month, and the future investment in the future will continue to fall. However, due to the lag of hysteresis due to hysteresis, real estate investment in the short term is still strong, and it is expected that the real estate industry will continue to show the recovery trend.
In summary, we believe that the current real estate financing policy has gradually tightened, and major housing companies have been in the stage of returning to the liabilities. Since the land payment has lag, the growth rate of real estate investment will maintain strong toughness, and the real estate investment recovery during the year The trend will not be greatly affected. However, in the long-term, the impact of financing policies will gradually be transferred from land purchase to back-end. The future relying on real estate new construction area has greatly increased the logic of the demand for engineering machinery, and with the concept of "living in the house" In the market, it gradually forms a consensus. In the next 3-5 years, funds have been greatly popped into the real estate sector, combined with the social attributes of the real estate industry unique anti-risk and steady growth, we expect the real estate industry to maintain a low-speed growth trend.
2.1.3 Environmental Policy
The environmental protection policy can be divided into two types of non-road mobile machinery (excavator, roller, tower cranes) and road mobile machinery (loaders, mobile cranes, concrete pump cars, etc.) in different mechanical types.
Non-road mobile machinery
Environmental protection requirements are increasingly strict, and the demand for equipment replacement is considerable. According to the "non-road diesel mobile mechanical pollutant emission control technology requirements", all production, import and sales of 560kW (including 560KW) non-road mobile machinery and their loading are available on December 1, 2022. Diesel engine should meet this standard requirements. We believe that with environmental policies, equipment that does not meet the emission standards will face measures such as restrictions. The implementation of the national four emission standards in the end of next year will promote the centralized explosive demand for construction machinery that does not meet the emission standards.
Compared to the national three emission standards, the national four emission standards will greatly improve the pressure on environmental pollution, the standard requires that the nitrogen oxide of the engine is reduced by 13% -45%, and the particulate matter is reduced by 50% -94%, and the old Environmental management of old equipment to promote the update iteration of engineering machinery equipment.
Beijing implements the national four emission standards in advance. On April 1, 2021, the Beijing Ecological Environment Bureau issued the "Notice on Implementing the National Fourth Stage of Non - road Mobile Machinery in Beijing", clearly indicating that the main contamination of mobile source pollution is maximum, reaching 45% due to local emissions contributions. Among them, non-road mobile mechanical discharge pollution is 14% of mobile sources, one of the important sources of Beijing mobile source emissions pollution. The Beijing Ecological Environment Bureau issued information, from December 1, 2021, in Beijing, 560KW or less (including 560KW) non-road mobile machinery and the diesel engine installed, must meet the "National Four" Road mechanical standard requirements. We believe that Beijing has implemented non-road mobile mechanical national four emission standards, which is expected to accelerate the pace of product update of host vendors and engine manufacturers, and accelerate the renewal of the renewal of construction machinery.
Road mobile machinery
The mechanical equipment such as car cranes, concrete pump trucks corresponds to road mechanical emissions standards, rather than non-road mobile mechanical emissions standards that must be in accordance with non-excavators. Road Mechanical Emission Standards Requirements for concrete machinery pump trucks sold on July 1, 2020, mixing and carrier, and lifting machinery meets the national six emission standards. Although affected by the epidemic, the National Ecological Environment Department considers the implementation of the national six emission standards, the law of the national five affected countries, the national second road road, the national six may affect the law of the country, and the environmental protection requirements are improved. Under the premise, Mechanical equipment update requirements will not be affected too much.
Environmental factors promote the main plant to seek electricity development
Energy Safety Requirements New Energy Dynamic Replace Traditional Fuel Power. The proportion of crude oil to the external oil refers to a national crude oil import volume accounts for the proportion of oil consumption of national oil, reflects the degree of dependence on oil consumption on foreign oil, is an important indicator of energy security. 50% will be used as a safety warning line in the world, and the indicator of my country has reached 72.55%, far exceeding the police quilt standard. As the powers of petroleum consumption, electricization is of great significance to ensuring my country's energy security.
my country's environmental issues are still more severe, engineering machinery and heavy card discharge pollution is serious. In 2020, the country's 337 levels of prefecture-level markets were 33 micrograms / cubic meters, down 8.3% year-on-year. From the over-years data, it can be seen that my country's PM2.5 concentration has a continuous decline, although my country has achieved environmental protection. There must be achievements, but the standards of 10 micrograms per cubic meter from the World Health Organization still have a large gap, and the environmental problems are still relatively serious. Among them, the construction machinery and heavy trucks generally adopt high-power diesel engines, high fuel consumption, large noise, contamination of the exhaust gas, and the pollution emissions of a heavy truck are equivalent to 100 cars. From the stock, there are currently about 15 million heavy trucks, and the annual fuel consumption is equivalent to 200 million cars.
Electricization is an important measure to win the blue sky defense war. During the two sessions of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Chairman of Ningde Times was submitted to the "Fully promote the construction machinery and heavy trucks and other public service fields and electricity to win the Blue Sky Defense Battle to form the global industry highland", highlighting the promotion construction machinery and heavy trucks Electricization.
Construction machinery and heavy truck electric timing tend to mature. According to the idea of the famous professor of Tsinghua University, the electric timing of the current engineering machinery and heavy trucks has matured. We analyze the current construction machinery and heavy truck electric logic mainly the following: First, the zero emissions of pure electric vehicles, high performance, energy saving and emission reduction effect; second, with the new infrastructure, power-saving facilities, battery, motor , Electronically controlled, charging / power transmission (referred to as four electricity) has basically matured, and it is expected to solve the pain points encountered in the use of heavy card electricization; three is the major battery packs and engineering machinery manufacturers to cut into the engineering machinery and electric market. New energy development in the field of construction machinery.
We believe that the current situation of environmental protection issues in my country is still severe, the implementation of new emission standards is expected to improve current environmental issues, and new policy implementation will determine the need to reach the non-standard old project mechanical update demand, and provide power for the growth of the engineering machine industry.
2.2 The demand side comes from the update and exports.
At present, my country's construction machinery market has gradually changed from incremental markets to the stock market. We believe that the future driven project mechanical needs is mainly divided into update demand, export demand.
2.2.1 Update requirements
Emission standard, service life renewal construction machinery update demand
The update demand mainly includes the active update requirements caused by the mechanical life and the passive replacement requirements arising from the national new emission standards. At present, the more common ways can be divided into reports for non-standard old engineering machinery equipment. New and sell two kinds.
The sales of construction machinery is 2010-2012, and the construction machinery emissions sold during the period are national standards. Due to the implementation of new emission standards, we believe that the update demand caused by its useful age will also be reflected in emissions. The standard improved renewal demand. Due to many types of construction machinery, it is difficult to accurately estimate when calculating different emissions standard equipment, so we choose the highest value of the volume of the volume in the construction machine as an example, to reverse the entire project machinery market, all kinds of emission standard equipment stocks, we Assumption:
1) In accordance with the 2019 domestic excavator, it is 1.45 million.
2) The excavator of the national and second, the national three emission standards accounts for 6%, 60%, and 34% respectively.
Since the different tons of excavation machinery is large in sales data, and the gap between different ton of second-hand equipment residual value is large, we selected 2015-2019 average proportional proportion (large digging, medium digging, small The digging ratio is 12.55%, 32.31%, 55.15%, respectively, and the current value data of the second-hand equipment is calculated by the use of iron second-hand excavator sales platform. We measured:
After calculation, we have obtained, assuming that the national four standard implementation does not affect the national three excavators or national three excavators can reach new emission standards through modification methods, and have higher economic benefits in this way, only considering the country, the country In the case of excavation deposits, the total value is still more than 450 billion yuan. According to 40% of the total value of the excavator, the current minimum estimate of the national and second emission standards is 1.1 trillion yuan.
Infrastructure, real estate policy accelerated engineering machinery
Although my country's construction machinery industry has entered the stock market, the total growth rate of real estate starting area, the growth rate of infrastructure investment can still be better fitted to the new demand level, to a certain extent, reflect the degree of prosperity of the construction machinery industry .
Real estate new construction area and engineering machinery have a strong correlation. It can be seen from the construction machinery sales data from the real estate new construction area and the excavator as an example. In the past 10 years, the trend of the two indicators has become consistent, and the analysis of the relevant relationships of the two have been analyzed, the new construction area growth rate is Excavator The growth rate is the highest in the month, reaching 0.6467.
The infrastructure investment is strong, and the sales of construction machinery are growing long. By correlating the growth rate of infrastructure investment and excavator, we found that the two data is poorly fitted, only 0.0488, the best effect is 12 months in advance investment growth, the correlation factor is 0.4204, it can be seen that the lag of infrastructure investment on the sales of construction machinery is strong. We analyze the main reason is that the new construction area of real estate is the starting index, and the infrastructure investment is more procedures between the projects, the time is long, so A strong lag is reflected in the fitting result.
In summary, we believe that although the real estate financing policy has gradually tightened, the new construction area of real estate is still having a certain toughness in the short term. It will support construction machinery sales data in the short term, and the overlay two will propose to support two new year new infrastructure development. Next, the infrastructure investment will be the biggest driving force for the long-term growth of the construction machinery and expect to pull the new demand for construction machinery again.
2.2.2 Export Demand
The engineering machinery export has exceeded the level of epidemic. According to customs data, 2021H1 my country's engineering machinery import export trade is $ 17.18 billion, an increase of 47.9% year-on-year. Among them, the import value is $ 2.046 billion, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year; the export amount is 15071 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, and the trade surplus is 13.825 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of $ 7.884 billion. In June 2021, imports were 346 million US dollars, an increase of 8.97% year-on-year; an export volume was US $ 3.156 billion, an increase of 94.8% year-on-year. Compared with the epidemic in 2019, the export volume in June 2021 increased by 46.2% compared with the 2019 year, and the accumulated export volume increased by 25.9% year-on-year than 2019. Overall, the engineering machinery exports in the first half of the year are better than imported, and the export situation has exceeded the epidemic.
From the destination, "a belt all the way" along the country, especially Southeast Asia, is the main export area of China's construction machinery, 2021H1 my country's construction machinery to "a belt all the way", the country exports 6.674 billion US dollars, accounting for 44.3% of all exports. The export of the whole machine is mainly flowing to the China home of Indonesia, Russia, the Philippines, and components mainly flow to developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia. In the first half of 2021, the top five countries ranked the top five in the United States, Russia, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.
The export demand for construction machinery is strong, and exports are expected to achieve more than 50% increase. Through the analysis of engineering machinery export data in the first half of 2021, the number of excavators exported in February was lower than that of the epidemic in the same period last year, the increase of 174% year-on-year, and the export amount has been steadily improved since March. In June 2021, the number of project machinery exports increased by 94.8% year-on-year. In addition, from the main export area, the number of hours can be seen. From January to June 2021, the number of hours of construction machinery export area and the national starting hours have shown a warm trend, indicating that the main export of main exports in construction machinery is gradually released, As the subsequent global epidemic is effectively controlled, the demand for engineering machinery is expected to maintain strong, and the annual export amount is expected to achieve more than 50% faster.
3. Construction machinery future development
3.1 Excavator: Domestic hydraulic substitution is worth looking forward to
3.1.1 Excavation Machinery Development Status
According to data about the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the excavator sales reached 2.31 million in June 2021, down 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed from 8.1 percentage points from last month. Among them, there are 1.7 million sales in the country, down 21.9% year-on-year, 6135 exports, an increase of 111% year-on-year.
From the sales structure, my country's excavator is mainly mainly to meet domestic demand. According to the data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in 2020, the market sales in China is 29,2864, accounting for 89.40%, accounting for 34,741 export sales, accounting for 10.60%. As of June 2021, the total number of excavators sold in the country, in the country, domestic sales of 193,700, accounting for 86.54%; export sales 30133 units, accounting for 13.46%. It can be seen that although the proportion of excavator exports in recent years have gradually increased, my country's excavation machinery sales remain mainly mainly to meet domestic demand.
Small digging sales accounts for improvement, and China's big digging will still be an important support for excavators. In terms of various models, domestic sales of excavators can be divided into three categories of small digging (28.5T) in accordance with the difference in tonnage. From the sales volume, the proportion of the small digging is presented, mainly, mainly small digging It is commonly used in urban road construction, rural garden construction, etc., which is used to replace artificial. In the long run, with the continuous increase in domestic urbanization, the growth of small digging markets still has increased potential. From the perspective of sales, although the small digging is more than 59% in sales, due to the large number of small digging, the medium is still an important support for the sale of machine sales.
The concentration of industry continues to increase, and the three heavy workers won the global lead crown. According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, as of July 2020, the CR5 of the excavator industry increased from 60.4% in 2019 to 62.9%, and the increase of 2.5 percentage points. In terms of the company's market share, the 7-month-owned brand market share reached 62.2%. Among them, Sanyi Heavy Industries continued to maintain the first position, from 26.7%, second, and three, respectively, 10.5% of Caterpillar. According to OFF-Highway Research data, the three sales of 98705 excavators in 2020, accounting for 15% of the global excavator market, and the global selling crowns. In terms of the overall, the concentration of excavator industry continues to increase, and the trend of leaders aggregate is obvious.
Xiao Song starting hours in the high position, and the downstream project is active. Xiao Song starting hours is the most widely used engineering machinery starting hours in China, which can be very good to indicate the activity of the project starting. Although the number of hours of starting hours in June has fallen by 125.5 hours in May, the current hours of starting hours are still at a high level, indicating that fixed asset investment activities such as domestic infrastructure is still more active, and the current construction machinery industry needs maintenance at a high level. superior.
The industry is still in the excavator update replacement cycle, and 2021 voting replacement requirements is about 160,000. According to the excavator sales data, it can be seen that the last sales period is 2010-2012, through the number of second mobile phone boot hours in 2010-2012, according to the average replacement period of 8-10 years according to the construction machinery And the average service life of 11,000 hours is calculated, and 2021 will still be the peak period of construction machinery.
After the measurement of us, we have not considered the impact of the emission standards, only considering the service life of the equipment, about 161,000 excavators in 2021. Since the national four emission standards will be implemented at the end of 2022, the national second and lower emission standard excavators sold by the former sales in 2016 are expected to enter the update cycle in advance.
Excavator export data is heated, and the annual export is expected to exceed 60,000 units. From the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, it can be seen that the number of excavators exported in June this year has maintained a rapid growth of growth rate. Not to be effectively controlled with the global epidemic, the export data is expected to maintain a high-speed growth situation in the second half of the year, and the annual export is expected to reach 60,000 horizontal levels, achieving a high-speed growth of around 80%.
As of the end of June, the excavator sales have completed nearly 68% sales in 2019, and the update demand driven by domestic drainage standard and new demand for infrastructure and real estate. We believe that in 2021, the excavator sales are expected to have a new historic high. In 2021, the excavator sales are expected to exceed 360,000 units. The growth rate is about 10%. It is expected to maintain a small amount of excavator in the next three years. increase.
3.1.2 Domestic hydraulic substitution is worthy of attention
Hydraulic parts account for approximately 1/4, which is a power transmission important component. The working principle of hydraulic system is to control the gas cylinder piston to expand the oil cylinder piston by hydraulic oil into the cylinder, thereby achieving transmission power, and the purpose of the operation. Hydraulic parts mainly include five hydraulic cylinders, hydraulic pumps, hydraulic valves, hydraulic motors, and hydraulic systems, which are the largest of the value of pump valve products, accounting for approximately 37%, and foreign leading enterprises hydraulic parts are mainly concentrated.
According to the data of OFF-Highway Research, the 2018 global hydraulic parts market size is approximately $ 40 billion, of which the domestic hydraulic parts market size is around 8 billion US dollars, but my country is hydraulically manufactured, but is not hydraulically manufactured. . At present, most domestic hydraulic products are in the middle and low-ends of the value chain, high-end products mainly depend on imports and a few domestic leading companies.
At present, the selection of hydraulic parts of the mainstream host factory is concentrated in Kawasaki heavy workers. At present, the main suppliers of core hydraulic parts are concentrated in Japan, Germany, the United States and other countries. At present, the main plant choice in hydraulic system is concentrated in Chikawazaki, mainly due to two aspects:
1) The hydraulic system of domestic local brand excavators generally use Kawasaki heavy work products.
2) In the early days of the development of the epidemic, Japan has been aimed to match Boshi and other German and American hydraulic pressures with a relatively optimistic epidemic situation.
The Japanese epidemic form is intensified, and the main plant will face another risk. Although the number of people accumulated infection in Japan, July 31, 202, the number of people with a minimum number of people accumulated in four major countries in China, but considering that the Japanese population base is small, the new case in the same day is second only to the United States The second high, the subsequent epidemic development will not be effectively controlled, and the parts supply of parts that are currently concentrated in Kawasaki, Japan will be affected; the United States is the country with the most severe situation in the five regions. It has increased 56,500 people on the same day. Accumulated 35.745 million people infected with new crown viruses (data as of July 31, 2021). At present, China's epidemic prevention and control form is relatively optimistic. The new increase of only 75 days on July 37. The number of people with a cumulative infection is 93,000. If the next day, the US epidemic situation will not be effectively controlled, the main unit will have to temporarily Get a low risk of risk, China Hydraulic parts Manufacturers are expected to take more orders.
Domestic hydraulic faucets are expected to benefit. At present, Kawasaki Heavy Industry in China's Kawas Chunhui Precision Machinery (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd., Kawasaki Precision Machinery (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. only produces hydraulic pumps and hydraulic motors, and the production capacity of these two factories cannot meet the needs of domestic construction machinery main units, each year my country also needs to import a lot of hydraulic parts from Japan. Since the epidemic causes a large amount of construction period, the company has purchased the equipment to take the equipment, so that the equipment demand is far more expensive, with the greater impact of the spread of the epidemic to the supplier supply of the engineering machinery, the core parts domesticization is guaranteed Effective method for supply chain security.
At present, the domestic faucet has had the ability to compete with foreign suppliers in some areas. It has been more than 50% of domestic faucet Hengli Hydraulic pressure. , Kubota, 3, Xugong, etc. are all world-renowned host plants. Future is expected to benefit from domestic replacement of hydraulic parts. Comparing the overseas hydraulic giants in the pump valve as the core product, the value of the engineering machine is 2-3 times the cylinder, 2019 constant hydraulic small digging pump valve comprehensive market share reached 30%, accounting for the proportion of operating income . At present, the three small digging can provide customers with Kawasaki and Hengli two hydraulic parts for customers to choose from their own, and the future is expected to replicate the oil tank.
3.2 Crane: Assembly Building Promotes China Large Tower Machine Development
3.2.1 Current Situation of Crane Mechanical Development
There are many kinds of lifting machinery, widely used, depending on the different constructions of the crane, mainly divided into mobile cranes and fixed cranes (tower cranes). It can be seen from the sales volume of lifting machinery. Since 2016, my country's weakness is significantly improved, mainly because the life of the lifting machine is about 8-10 years, and the last sales peak period (2009-2011) The lifting machine is facing replacement requirements.
Mobile cranes mainly include car, cars, tires, global pavement cranes and crawler cranes.
The lifting machinery is late in the construction process, and the demand is relatively late than the excavator, and the subsequent lifting machine is expected to maintain the high growth rate of sales.
3.2.2 Mobile Cranes: Emission standards drive update requirements
The proportion of car cranes is again improved, and the number of trucks will decline. Prior to 2014, the sales of car cranes showed a decline in a downward trend, from 84.51% in 2007 to the lowest 49.46% in 2015. The train crane has been continuously improved with its use of flexible use, and the characteristics of effectively enhanced logistics efficiency is constantly improving, and 2015 has reached the highest 44.44%. However, after 2015, the car crane proportion will be raised again, and the ratio of 2019 reached 71.87%, and the ratio of the car crane fell to 24.3%.
The concentration of industry is continuously improved, and the car crane Xugong City share is first. Since the car crane occupies the moving crane of more than 70%, we analyze the competitive landscape of the crane industry from the perspective of the car crane. Similar to the excavator industry, the concentration of crane industry is also increasing. Since 2016, the centralized concentration of automobile cranes has been continuously improved. In 2018, the car crane industry CR3 reached 91.98%. In the company, the top three of the city's share is Xugong heavy, Sany Heavy Industry and China Association. Among them, Xugong continued for many years to maintain the leading position, the market share is a decline, and the market share in April 2019 reached 40.30%, which was less than 50% since 2009. Sanyi Heavy Industry and the Zoomlion City share have similar to the market share, respectively, with a market share, and presents an upward trend.
Mobile lifting machinery corresponds to the national six emission standards, the next two years is the peak period of update demand. Similar to the logic of excavator, the growth of the car lifting machinery industry mainly includes the new demand and new demand driven by the environmental protection factor and the new demand driven by the infrastructure.
The life of the lifting machine is usually in 8-10 years. We assume that the equipment is updated within 8-10 years after the purchase, and according to 20%, the 9th year of the 9th, the 10th year is replaced. The demand ratio is calculated. We get 2020-22 will be the peak period of update demand. It is expected that the 2020 car crane update demand will reach 33,000 units. Detafety requirements in the 2022 car will reach 10,000 units, the next two years Lifting machinery sales have been guaranteed.
3.2.3 Tower crane: assembled building promotes the development of large tower machines
Tower cranes are a building lifting equipment, which is widely used in construction and other industries that are used vertically hoisting, moving building materials and installation building components, primarily divided into tower, flat and boom cranes.
In recent years, my country's construction industry has steadily developed, and the government vigorously promotes the development of China's tower cranes in the development of China's tower cranes. Assembly architecture refers to the construction of some or all components of the building to be prefabricated in the factory, and then transported to the construction site, which is built into buildings into buildings.
Assembly buildings are obvious compared to traditional current casting costs. Taking a prefabricated rate of 50% 26-layered architecture and the same scale of traditional cast-in-situ, assembled buildings can reduce water consumption by 35% -50% relative to traditional on-site casting buildings. Energy consumption is reduced by 20% -25 %, The amount of construction waste is reduced by 65% -70%, and the dust level PM10 is reduced by 20% -40%.
In terms of artificial cost, the construction progress of assembly construction can reduce the period of about 1/2 compared to the traditional current mode. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the monthly revenue of migrant workers in the construction industry in 2020 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and it is the second high industry in the subdivision industry. 26 layered architects with a preform rate of 50% are compared with the same-scale traditional current casting buildings, and the assembled buildings can save 54.978 million artificial costs compared to the current casting building. It has obvious advantages. According to the industry's prediction, the PC assembly building with 50% of the assembly rate is expected to achieve costs and current poured in 2024, and the follow-up cost advantage will be more obvious.
my country's assembled building is rapidly promoted, and the assembled penetration rate is still gap between developed countries. Since 2016, the State supports assembly architectural development. The State Council clearly proposes that the national assembly building accounts for 30% of the new building proportion of the country. The traditional real estate project construction uses cast-in-in-in-place architectural model, which is not high, and the prefabricated components of the assembled building are large, and the weight requirements of the tower machine are greatly improved. In assembling construction projects, the proportion of large tower machines gradually increase.
Assembly building development promotes the demand for large-scale tower machines
let's assume:
1) According to 8000 square meters, the proportion of large-scale tower protection is calculated, and the demand for 10,000 square meters of assembly construction tower is 1.25.
2) According to the 2020, the osmotylation rate of 20.5%, 2025, the penetration rate of 2025 reached 30%, calculated that the annual complex growth rate of 2020-2025 was 7.9%.
3) In 2021, the growth rate of new construction area in the whole year was maintained at 3%. Data References In January to June 2020, the new construction area of real estate, and replaced the new construction area of the building in the newly starting area of the house.
After the calculation, we got it. By 2025, my country's installed building in China will be expected to reach 97,600 units, and the annual complex growth rate is expected to reach 11.15%.
The tower industry is mainly developed by operating rental + wetting. The Tower machine industry is mainly divided into two kinds of self-purchase and lease, and the current lease is more than 80%. There are two main points for this:
1) With the continuous improvement of assembled building, real estate projects have risen on the demand for medium and large tower machines, but due to the high price of the medium and large tower, it can be seen from the Pangyuan Index, the tower price is overall Upward trend. The self-purchaser will take up a large-scale funding.
2) Lease can be divided into two models "for rent" and "wet rent", and the rent includes machine rental, and the operator is included in addition to machine equipment. The tower machine is currently using the Tower Rental Business in the Tower Machine, and the professional driver is required to operate. Considering that the proportion of large tower machines in the future will be further improved, the proportion of future tower rental business methods is expected to further improve.
Pangyuan leases for crane leasing faucet, and the market share has improved space. As of July 30, 2020, Pangyuan Rental Tower has exceeded 7,000 units, and the total weight moment is also increased from 1.28 million tons to 1.45 million tons, ranking first in the world, and the larger tower is more than 90. %. Although Pangyuan Rental Tower Insurance is the total number of domestic tower, the total number of tower, the total number of pangyuan national market is still less than 3%, which is a strong domain in the tower rental industry. Sexual characteristics lead to a comparison of the US Tower Rental Lead Joint Leases at the end of 2019, the market share of Pangyuan leasing has great improvement in the future, and it is expected to continue to improve market share with its tower.
3.3 Forklift: Electric forklift for future development trends
3.3.1 Development Status of Forklift Industry
From the data released from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Industrial Vehicle Branch, 2020 China's forklift sales has a maximum history. It is the first forklift super production big country and sales in the world. The whole year is 80.02 million units. The year-on-year increased by 31.55%; some of which achieved sales of 618,600 units in China, an increase of 35.80% year-on-year; exports achieved a sales volume of 18.17 million units, 18.87% year-on-year.
The growth rate of forklift sales in the domestic market has improved, and the export proportion has declined. According to the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Industrial Vehicle Branch, the growth rate of domestic forklift sales in 2020 is 35.8%, and the decline in the first two years before the growth rate. In terms of export data, although export sales increased by 18.87% year-on-year, the export accounting in 2020 continued to drop 2.41 percentage points.
At present, most companies in my country have not achieved real differentiation competition. The industry's gross profit margin is relatively low. Even if the industry leader Anhui Heli and Hangzhu Group's sales gross profit margin is only 17.72%, 20.35%, more companies It is based on price competition to fight for market share. This epidemic will accelerate the quick exit of backward production capacity to a certain extent, and for many years, companies are looking for domestic and foreign resource integration, and quality companies are expected to obtain innovative, leading and sales and service network advantages with their products. more attention.
3.3.2 Consumption Upgrade requires the improvement of logistics efficiency, and AGV is worth looking forward to
Residents' consumption is continuously upgraded, and the logistics speed requires an increase in sorting efficiency. With the rapid development of China's consumption and the rapid development of the e-commerce industry, consumers have gradually improved the requirements of delivery, and my country's logistics sorting link is basically in the artificial sorting stage. The logistics sorting link needs to account for 50% of the logistics center. The above, the required time accounts for more than 40% of the logistics center work hours, and the integrated cost required to account for 15-20% of the cost of logistics center. However, with the continuous upgrade of residents, more and more quantities and varieties will reduce the sorting efficiency, thus affecting consumer experience. Since 2018, Jingdong, Amazon, Alibaba, Shentong, SF and other e-commerce giants and express industry faucets have put on sorting robots, AGV, and no warehouse. In September 2018, the rookie and Yuantong Express super robot distribution center was officially opened in Yuantong Hangzhou Transit Center, and 350 robots in the middle of the venue, and 350 robots can sort more than 500,000 parcels every day. The AGV logistics sorting system liberates logistics workers from a monotonous repetition, greatly enhances the efficiency and accuracy of logistics sorting.
The rapid cost of labor is rapid, and the AGV is worth looking forward to. In the past period, the AGV forklift is mainly used in large industrial enterprises such as automotive, hardware, tobacco due to high prices. However, in recent years, with the national economic development, my country has gradually changed from the manufacturing major to the manufacturing power, and the increase in labor costs makes the population benefits are no longer the advantage of Chinese manufacturing. And the AGV forklift can be used in a high-risk industry or a special industry, under cold and hot weather, and in areas where the light is very poor and no light. It is greatly satisfied with the requirements of environmental safety. According to statistics, 100 workers in the United States have been killed in the accidents in the forklift. The 20000 people are seriously injured, and the AGV forklift can significantly reduce the incidence of accidents.
Work environment standardization is a key point for the Future Forklift AGV breakthrough. At present, the AGV forklift navigation is mainly divided into electromagnetic navigation, tape navigation, laser navigation, inertial navigation, two-dimensional code navigation and visual navigation 6. Among them, the visual navigation technology that can be observed in real time and timely, corrective visual navigation techniques, and other methods are more demanding for the operational environment of the AGV forklift, so we believe that the downstream application industry Work environment standardization will be a key point of the future AGV forklift breakthrough.
See the forklift manufacturing enterprise transformation to the service-type manufacturing industry, focus on the overall solution of the AGV forklift. Thanks to the rapid development of domestic intelligent logistics, the demand for overall logistics solutions in the downstream enterprises is increasingly obvious, and traditional forklift manufacturing enterprises are dominated by sales forklifts. We have not satisfied our customers' differentiated demand. We believe that AGV forklift overall solutions can effectively solve customer pain points. It is the future development direction.
3.2.3 Forklift Electricization is still the future development trend
The electric forklift is gradually increased, accounting for more than 1/2. With the continuous advancement of the supply side reform structure, the forklift oil and electricity increases, and the capacity of the traditional internal combustion-fired vehicle has gradually reduced. The proportion of electric forklifts has gradually increased. From 2020, the sales volume of electric forklift is about 41 million units. The proportion is approximately 51.3%. The electric forklift sales accounts for more than 1/2, explained that with the significant increase in environmental attention, the sales difficulty of internal combustion trucks gradually increases, and the trend of further decline in the future will not reverse, and it will definitely decline in sales. .
The advantages of electric forklifts will gradually replace the internal burning trucks. Mainly reflected in the following points:
1) In terms of energy cost: electric energy consumption is much lower than diesel or oil liquefied gas. Taking a forklift with a load capacity of 3 tons as an example, a diesel-burning truck is 40L for each shift (calculated as 8 hours), and the general working conditions are fuel 5L, 5.27 yuan per liter of diesel. A shift cost is approximately 210.8 yuan. And if an electric forklift is 80V500AH battery, according to a shorty charging power consumption of 62 degrees (battery discharge is 80%, charging efficiency is 85%, line loss 120%, overcharge coefficient), general working condition For 7 hours each time, the electricity price of 1.2 yuan per degree is calculated, and a shift cost is about 85 yuan. Use the electric forklift to save 125.8 yuan energy costs per shift.
2) Maintenance costs: The maintenance cycle of the internal combustion truck is up to 500h, and many of the maintenance cycle of the electric forklift has reached more than 1000 hours. The maintenance of the electric forklift is mainly checked primarily, replaced by hydraulic oil, gear oil and hydraulic oil filter per 2000h or 3000 hours. In addition to lubrication, the internal combustion truck is to replace the engine oil and oil filter per 500h, and the hydraulic oil, oil, driving oil, and oil filter are replaced every 1000 hours. Take 3 ton forklift as an example, according to the annual operation of 2000H, the maintenance cost of internal combustion truck is 3,000-4,000 yuan, while the cost of electric forklift is only 1000-1500 yuan. Using electric forklifts can save 1500-3000 yuan per year.
3) Environmental protection: Since most forklifts are used primarily for the transportation in the warehouse, the exhaust gas emissions emissions during the internal combustion truck is greatly polluted in a closed warehouse environment. The electric forklift has the advantage of reducing exhaust gas pollution and noise contamination while completing the same amount of work, providing a more comfortable working environment.
Compared to developed countries, my country's electric forklifts still have time to develop space. According to the statistical data of the industrial vehicle branch of the China Mechanical Engineering Industry Association, the sales of domestic forklifts were 6.18,600 in 2020, of which the electric forklift sales reached 31 million. It can be seen from the forklift overhead sales data. my country's forklift electricity is climbed year by year, and it has risen from 23.5% in 2012 to 48.7% in 2020, but it is still more than 65% -75% of the European and American countries. Large improvement space, the proportion of electricity in the future will remain the rise.
Lithium batteries will accelerate alternative to lead-acid batteries. Before the power lithium battery is not widely used, the lead-acid battery dominates in the electric forklift, but with the continuous expansion of lithium battery production, the cost of lithium battery is gradually decreased to 1600 yuan, although compared to The 1000 yuan of the lead-acid battery still has a certain gap, but it has become a major development trend in electric forklifts with long service life and high energy density. According to the data of the High Industry Research Institute, the lithium battery forklift can save 300,000 yuan for the company for 8 years compared to lead-acid batteries, and the economic benefits are obvious. As future lithium battery costs further decrease, the alternative process of lead-acid batteries is expected to accelerate.
Domestic lithium battery giant Ningde Times, BYD has a layout in the electric forklift business. At the end of 2018, the C-series lithium iron truck released by the Ningde Times provided the battery and module, and the joint ventures established by the two parties were assembled battery packs, and BYD reached its leading advantage in the field of lithium iron phosphate. As early as 2013, I officially launched an electric forklift with a lithium battery in the world.
By 2023, my country's electric forklift lithium battery installed capacity is expected to exceed 100GWH. In 2020, the sales of lithium battery forklift exceeded 150,000 units, according to the amount of 25 kWh per forklift power battery, in 2020, my country has exceeded 37.5 g of the lithium battery installed. If the domestic forklift sales in 2020, the forklift market will reach 75.3 GKWH. We expect that China's lithium-ferrous battery demand will remain more than 40% in the next 3-5 years, will continue to exceed 10% of the annual cost of electric forklifts in 2023, it is expected to break through 100GWH.
3.4 Concrete Machinery: Update demand peak is coming soon
3.4.1 Current Situation of Concrete Mechanical Development
Concrete machinery is mainly divided into four major categories: pump, pump, mixer truck and mixing station. The specific use process is that the mixing station produces concrete, transported by the mixer car to the construction site, and then delivers the concrete pump to the pouring place by pump or concrete pump. Normally, 1 stirring station with 1 pump, 1 towset or car pump, 6 mixer cars, and the value of the entire equipment is about 500 million yuan.
The state has issued a policy to prohibit the on-site stirring concrete, and concrete equipment demand. For the purpose of saving resources, protecting the environment, since 2003, the state has issued policies in the country, which is strictly prohibited to stir the concrete on the construction site, and the use of ready-mixed concrete and ready-mixed mortar. At present, "ban" has achieved more obvious results in the country, and Zhejiang as an example, 2019 cement scattered rate reached 83.05%.
Cement, concrete price index can be seen as a first indicator of the concrete machinery industry. The demand for concrete machines is generally conducted in accordance with: cement - ready-mixed concrete - transportation / stirring - concrete machinery, so cement price index, concrete price index can be regarded as a preliminary index of concrete machinery. According to relevant data, the two price index continue to rise since 2016. Since the epidemic in the early years, the two data showed a small fluctuation, as of June 23, the Wind cement price index was 148.09, the concrete price index was 145.02, still in a higher position.
Concrete mixing station movement is one of the important measures to govern environmental issues across the country. In this article 2.1.3, the current environmental problem is still relatively serious. All localities have increased their efforts to rectify environmental issues. At present, environmental governance measures are mainly divided into two directions, one is concrete mixer, pump truck Emissions the upgrade of the Six Standards; the second is to gradually move towards the marginal edge of the city. External movement of concrete mixing station will increase the transportation distance in concrete, thereby driving the number of demand for concrete mixers.
Wuxi elevated bridge-side turns caused attention to the overloading of concrete transportation. On October 10, 2019, near the 312 National Road, Jiangsu Wuxi City collapsed nearly 100 meters long and elevated bridges, and experts analyzed that the main reason is overloaded. This matter has a wide range of attention to overload issues. It is understood that there is a large overload problem in the concrete transportation industry, taking a three-axis car as an example, and the tank volume is generally 12. Generally, the limit of the three-axis mixer car is about 10 tons, with a total mass of 25 tons. According to the 1 cubic concrete, it is calculated to calculate, 1 car should not overload only 4 cubic concrete. If the actual transport is calculated according to the laundering, the freight rate of 1 party concrete is 30 yuan. If the 12-party mixer is only 4 square, the freight rate is less than 80 yuan. The number of concrete mixers required for the same amount of consumption after the launder requires three times.
Domestic enterprises have completed the acquisition of three major concrete brands worldwide, and the concrete machinery market is basically monopolized by China. In September 2008, Zenlian Heavy Technology jointly took Hongyi Investment, Goldman Sachs Group and Mandarin Fund acquired 100% of the world's third largest concrete machinery manufacturer Italy CIFA company. On January 31, 2012, the three heavy work announcement announced that the Holding Subsidiary Sany Germany United CITIC Fund acquired 100% equity equity Putzmir. On July 6, 2012, Xugong Group acquired 52% of the equity of Swivi. Since then, domestic enterprises have completed the acquisition of three major concrete companies around the world. At present, the global concrete machinery market has basically monopolized by Chinese companies.
3.4.2 Demand Measurement: Emission standard update, life dual drive
The pump work environment is more meticulous to meet the non-road environment and use the life renovation needs. In the construction operation of the pump truck, it is generally not frequent on the road, but stopped in a certain position, and the work environment is more biased to the non-road environment. We believe that the service life is an important reason for the renewal needs of the main concrete pump truck. According to the life life of the pump car hanging from the iron second mobile phone, only 19 pump cars before 2008, accounting for less than 10% in the pump truck, and the surplus value of the equipment is low, so we take the pump truck Uploading life is 10-12 years, and according to the 10th year, the 11th year, the proportion of the 12th year of the 12th year, the equipment sold in the last sales peak (2010-2012) is updated, we It will be gradually released in the next four years, and it is expected to reach 10,868 at 2023.
Due to the long service life, the emission standard update will drive the pump truck update. However, the use of the national five implementation after the five implementations of the country, the national and second-equipment use, and the national implementation of the Sixth implementation will also affect the use of the national three equipment. Since the national four implementation distance this year is only 7 years this year, the country's three real estate is 12 years this year, this It means that there will be a lot of pump trucks that have not reached the service life will face updates under emissions standards, so we believe that emission standards will significantly increase the update requirements of pump trucks on the above measurement.
Concrete mixer use life-end annual capacity. Since the concrete mixer is used for 8 years, the national three-discharge mixer environmental requirements improve the demand for equipment updates can be reflected in the need of life. Therefore, we assume that the mixer renewal requirements shall be calculated according to 20% in the sixth year, and 50% of the 7th year, and the eighth year of the year. We get the peak period of 2019 is the renewal of the concrete mixer truck, about 457 million units. Updating demand since 2020 will gradually weaken, about 45,000 units, will drop 1.77% year-on-year.
The export of concrete mixers has continued to rise, and foreign markets have become an important growth point. Although the sales of concrete machinery has gradually declined after the peak of sales in 2012, with the continuous development of the engineering machinery, the demand for concrete machinery and the concrete mechanical exports have risen, and the number of concrete mixer vehicles accounts for the total export of concrete machinery. 75% of the amount, the overseas market has become an important growth point of domestic concrete machinery.
In recent years, the price of concrete machinery has declined, and the number of exports after the epidemic is small. Through the statistics of the main concrete machinery export data in the past three years, we can find that in recent years, my country's concrete pump truck, the export of the mixer truck is present, and the number of exports has declined. As of April 2021, the average price of concrete mixer trucks has been It was reduced from $ 471 million in early 2018 to $ 319 million. With the effective control of global epidemics, overseas countries have improved the demand for concrete machinery. In April this year, the total number of concrete mixers accumulated in the concrete mixer is 1840, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from the same period last year. We expect the number of major concrete machinery to achieve more than 10% of this year. In the future, as the global epidemic is controlled, the concrete machinery is gradually welded to the export data recovery after the mechanical industry.
