In September 2021, the heavy truck and tractor markets will only sell 59200 vehicles and 25200 vehicles respectively, which is obviously not the level of a "peak season". With such a low "contemporaneous period", the industry has boldly predicted that the first "victory" of the heavy truck and tractor market in 2022 will be in September, right? However, the reality is often much crueler than the prediction. The heavy truck and tractor markets continued to decline in September. In September, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to decline year on year, and the decline was slightly larger than that in August. What about the tractor market?
The sales of 22400 vehicles in September increased by 9% month on month and decreased by 11% year on year
According to the latest information, according to the data of China Automobile Association (the number of invoices issued by enterprises, the number of non terminal actual sales, the same below), in September 2022, China's heavy truck market will sell 51800 vehicles in total, up 12% month on month and down 13% year on year. Among them, as the most concerned segment of the heavy truck market, the tractor market delivered the report card of month on month increase and year on year decrease in September: sales of 22400 units, month on month increase of 9% and year on year decrease of 11%. Like the heavy truck market, the year-on-year decrease of the tractor market expanded again in September (the tractor market decreased by 1% year on year in August) after narrowing month by month for several consecutive months. It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, the tractor market dropped by more than 60% in five months, with an average decline of 67%; After entering the second half of the year, although the tractor market still failed to gain growth, the average year-on-year decline of 16% in July, August and September was much better than that in the first half of the year, including 1% and 11% in August and September, respectively, and the difference between the monthly sales volume and the same period last year was not much. As of September 2022, the tractor market has declined for 18 consecutive months.
Looking at the sales volume and growth trend of the tractor market in September of the last five years, it can be seen that the tractor market has grown in September of the last five years in 2019 and 2020. The 75300 units in September 2020 is the peak sales volume of the tractor market in September of the last five years, and it is the only time that the tractor market has exceeded 50000 units in September in the last five years; In September 2021, the tractor market dropped by 66% in the third month after the "National Six Year Plan", to the level of 20000 vehicles. The sales volume of 22400 units in the tractor market in September this year is at the lowest level in the past five years, which is less than 30% of the sales volume in September 2020, a five-year high. Compared with September 2018 and September 2019, the sales volume of about 3000 units is less than that in September last year.
After September, the cumulative sales volume of tractor market this year was less than 250000, only 237700, down 61% from 611300 in the same period last year, with a net decrease of more than 370000, less than 40% of the sales volume from January to September last year. According to the analysis of First Commercial Vehicle Network, the heavy truck market has been depressed for quite a long time due to the impact of economic slowdown, low road freight rates, reduced supply of goods, and the switch between six countries. Although the market demand is slowly recovering, it is not obvious. The impact of epidemic factors on the market in the three months of the third quarter is significantly better than that in the second quarter, but the demand is still weak, and the market recovery is far less than expected. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the tractor market this year has been expanding since February, and has dropped 68% since May. This trend has finally "stopped" in June. The cumulative sales decline in the last four months has narrowed month by month. The cumulative sales decline in the tractor market from January to September has narrowed by 7 percentage points compared with January to May. These 7 percentage points are precious in the current market environment of sluggish demand and continuous decline.
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It can be seen from the above table that the tractor market in September decreased by 11% year on year, 10 percentage points higher than that in the previous month (the tractor market in August slightly decreased by 1% year on year), and about 3000 fewer tractors were sold than that in the same period last year. Specifically, in September, the sales of the top ten enterprises increased by 4 and decreased by 6, and the number of enterprises achieving growth was the same as that in August. Jiefang, Foton, Beiben and XCMG gained growth in September, up 6%, 25%, 47% and 75% year on year respectively. Among them, Foton has achieved growth for three consecutive months, Jiefang has achieved growth for two consecutive months, and Beiben has reaped its first growth this year; Among the enterprises that declined, there were still 4 enterprises with a double-digit decline. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline dropped by 85% year on year in September. However, there were also Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile and other enterprises with a single digit decline, outperforming the "market".
Like the heavy truck market, the tractor market also achieved a month on month growth of 9% in September. In terms of mainstream enterprises, most of them performed better in September than in August. Eight of the top ten companies achieved month on month growth, including XCMG and SAIC Hongyan, whose month on month growth exceeded 100, reaching 280% and 105% respectively. Dongfeng, Beiben, JAC and other enterprises also achieved month on month growth. It is worth mentioning that the tractor sales of Beiben and XCMG in September both increased month on month and year on year.
In September, no enterprise in the tractor market continued to sell more than 10000 vehicles, and no enterprise in the tractor market has sold more than 10000 vehicles for eight consecutive months. In fact, let alone more than 10000 units, no enterprise has sold more than 5000 units in the tractor market for three consecutive months. In September, the total share of the top ten enterprises in tractor sales reached 98.63%, and the share of the top ten enterprises was less than 1.5%. In September, the total share of the top five enterprises in the tractor market reached 88.83%, and the total share of the top five enterprises in the industry continued to exceed 85%, but narrowed compared with the previous month (90.32%).
From the perspective of cumulative sales, the tractor market sold 237700 units from January to September this year, a year-on-year decrease of 61%, 2 percentage points narrower than the previous August (- 63%), and more than 370000 units less than the same period last year, about 38.9% of the cumulative sales in the same period last year. In terms of the top ten enterprises in terms of cumulative sales volume (the top ten enterprises in September are slightly different from the top ten enterprises in January September), all of the ten enterprises are in the decline range, and the cumulative decline has reached double digits. The decline of enterprises such as Heavy Truck, Shaanxi Automobile, Foton, Dayun, Beiben, Xugong, Hanma Science and Technology is lower than 61% of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "market", including Dayun The cumulative sales of Hanma Technology and XCMG decreased by 38%, 35% and 36% respectively from January to September this year, making them the only three enterprises among the top ten in terms of cumulative sales with a cumulative decline of less than 40%.
From the perspective of cumulative share, the total share of the top ten enterprises in the cumulative sales volume has reached 98.86%, and the total share of the top five enterprises in the sales volume has reached 87.92%. The total share of the industry's top 5 tractor market from January to September this year is close to 90%. Among them, the share of Jiefang and Heavy Truck has both exceeded 20%, reaching 21.81% and 21.64% respectively, and the cumulative share gap is only 0.17%; Shaanxi Automobile, Foton and Dongfeng shared 17.07%, 14.36% and 13.03% of the tractor market respectively in the first nine months of this year. The gap between neighboring enterprises has not been widened too much, and the final seating arrangement of the top five in the industry is still in doubt.
From January to September this year, the cumulative share of enterprises such as Heavy Truck, Foton, Dayun, Shaanxi Automobile, Xugong and Beiben in the tractor market has increased, of which the cumulative share of Heavy Truck from January to September this year has increased by 4.76 percentage points over the same period last year; The cumulative share of Foton tractor from January to September this year also increased by 2.63% compared with the same period last year; This year, Dayun Heavy Truck has been in the top six of the monthly list in the tractor market for 9 consecutive months, and its "play" is very stable, with its cumulative share increased by 2.15% over the same period last year. In addition, the cumulative shares of Shaanxi Automobile, XCMG and Beiben from January to September this year increased by 1.65%, 0.54% and 0.47% respectively compared with the same period last year.
From the perspective of industry pattern, the top ten members of the tractor market in September this year are different from those in August, and their rankings have also changed: XCMG tractors returned to the top ten in September, ranking eighth in the monthly list; SAIC Hongyan rose from 10th place in August to 9th place in the monthly list.
Like the heavy truck market, the tractor market in September did not enjoy the long-awaited growth when the sales volume was at a low level in the same period last year. From January to September this year, the average sales volume of tractors in the market was only 26400, which is slightly better than the last few months of last year (the average monthly sales volume of tractors in August December 2021 was only 22300), but it is still at a very low level. In October 2021, the sales volume of the tractor market is still not high, with only 20000 vehicles in the early stage, which looks like a "soft persimmon". If the tractor market in October can maintain the level of September, the first "victory" of this year's tractor should be in October.
