Although the sales volume of heavy truck industry rose slightly in September, the overall performance was still not ideal.
In September, the sales volume rose by 13% month on month and decreased by 12% year on year
In September of this year, the heavy truck market in China sold about 52000 units (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month, 12% lower than 59200 units in the same period of last year, and a net decrease of about 7200 units. This September is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since last May.
Vertically, the year-on-year decrease in September was 12%, the second lowest in history since the beginning of 2022, only second to the year-on-year decrease of 10% in August. However, although the year-on-year decline of market sales in the last two months has been less than 15%, it is more due to the low sales base in the same period last year than to the recovery of terminal market demand.
Looking back at the third quarter of last year, the market sales volume was the first quarter of a precipitous decline. Since the national six emission regulations for diesel vehicles were implemented nationwide since July 1, last year, the sales volume of last year was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. In September 2021, the sales volume improved on a month on month basis, but still fell by 61% year on year.
With such a low monthly and quarterly base in the same period, the market sales in September this year still did not reverse year-on-year, which shows that domestic terminal demand is still not ideal.
After September, 523500 heavy trucks were sold in the market from January to September this year, down 58% from 1233000 in the same period of last year, or 709000.
The market is expected to grow for the first time in the year in October
In late September, there were some subtle changes in the overall market situation, which may lay the foundation for the market reversal in October. First of all, all enterprises have been "digesting" high inventory for several months in a row, and the inventory in the fourth quarter will be relatively low. Heavy truck enterprises and dealers will have less "burden", and the sales volume will continue to improve month on month.
Secondly, on September 21, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting proposed that in the fourth quarter of this year, the toll truck toll will be reduced by 10%, targeted financial policy support will be given to toll road operators, and financing costs will be appropriately reduced.
Therefore, the reduction of industrial inventory+the substantial positive policy will help promote the continuous improvement of the sales volume of the heavy truck industry in the fourth quarter of this year, and the sales volume in October and November is expected to achieve year-on-year growth. However, due to the unfavourable factors such as economic slowdown, low consumption and investment, sluggish logistics industry and insufficient supply of goods, it is not appropriate to have high hopes for sales in the fourth quarter.
