From January to September 2022, the whole heavy truck market did not achieve year-on-year growth in a month, and the cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters fell by nearly 60%. In such a market environment, there is a segment that continues to stand out. In the first eight months of this year, the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 100%, and the average growth rate from January to August was as high as 472%.
Yes, that's the new energy heavy truck market! The new energy heavy truck market has been running for 8 consecutive months in 2022. In September, can the momentum of its "rush" continue? How much can the sales increase? Which heavy truck brand won the first place in the monthly sales list? Please read the analysis report.
1860 units sold in September, the third highest year-on-year growth rate, increased by 67%
According to the latest data, in September 2022, 1860 new energy heavy trucks were sold in the domestic market (the sales volume of compulsory traffic insurance terminals, excluding exports and military vehicles, the same below), a slight increase of 1% month on month compared with August, and a continuous increase of 67% year on year, 60 percentage points narrower than the previous month (127%). The new energy heavy truck market ushered in the fifth month on month and year on year double positive growth in 2022. It is worth mentioning that the year-on-year growth rate of 67% in the new energy heavy truck market in September was the first time that the new energy heavy truck market was lower than 100% since August last year. Looking at the sales volume alone, the sales volume of 1860 new energy heavy trucks in September this year was the third highest single month sales volume of this year, and it can also rank the sixth in history, which is a very good performance.
It can be seen from the above figure that, except for June 2019 (note: the increase of new energy heavy trucks in June 2019 mainly comes from the centralized licensing of pure electric mud trucks (dump trucks) purchased in Shenzhen), the red line representing 2022 is always above any color representing the previous three years. No matter what month it is, it is much higher than the sales performance of the same period in previous years. It can also be seen from the above figure that since 2021, especially from the second half of the year, the new energy heavy truck market has always shown a trend of continuous improvement. The sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in the last three months of 2021 has been at a high position, especially in the last two months (the average sales volume is close to 2500 vehicles), which undoubtedly makes it possible for the new energy heavy truck market to continue to grow at a large rate in the future, It is doubtful that we can even finish with "12 consecutive increases" in 2022.
In 2022, the demand for fuel and gas heavy truck terminals will continue to be weak. In addition to the impact of epidemic situation, in the first nine months of this year, the average terminal sales of heavy truck market will just exceed 40000 vehicles/month. From January to August, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals will account for about 4%; In September, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals expanded to 4.5% compared with the previous August. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy heavy trucks reached 15300, nearly 5000 more than the annual sales volume of last year, with a year-on-year growth of 254%. The sales volume at heavy truck terminals accounted for about 4.1%. Although the market size of heavy trucks this year is bound to shrink significantly compared with the previous two years, the proportion of 4.1% of new energy vehicles is still a figure that could not be expected a year ago.
From January to September 2022, 30 provinces (cities and districts) across the country have new energy heavy cards on the road, but the regional distribution is very uneven. More than 300 new energy heavy trucks have been registered in 13 provinces (cities and districts), including Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shanghai, Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Beijing and Zhejiang, among which more than 5000 new energy heavy trucks have been registered in Hebei Province; In 31 cities including Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Changsha, Handan, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu, Baotou, Shenzhen, Beijing, Qinhuangdao, Linfen, Ma'anshan, Taiyuan, Tianjin and Baoding, more than 100 new energy heavy trucks were registered, including 2445 in Tangshan. From January to September this year, 16% of the new energy heavy trucks registered nationwide were with Tangshan's "Ji B" brand; In Shijiazhuang from January to September this year, more than 1300 new energy heavy trucks were registered; In Changsha, Handan, Zhengzhou, Shanghai and other cities, the number of new energy heavy cards registered exceeded 700 from January to September this year. Among the top 15 cities (more than 280) in January to September, Hebei Province accounted for 5.
The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that Hebei Province accounted for 6 of the top 12 cities (with more than 150 new energy heavy trucks) in the number of licensed new energy heavy trucks from January to May this year; After June, Cangzhou and Xingtai, the two cities that ranked in the top 12 after May, were squeezed out of the top 15. After September, Cangzhou and Xingtai had dropped to the 17th and 22nd in terms of cumulative registration, while Baoding, another city in Hebei, returned to the top 15 after September. From this perspective, it is not difficult to see that not only Hebei, but also all parts of the country are accelerating the pace of new energy heavy trucks, and all parts of the country are scrambling to push new energy heavy trucks. Take the past September as an example. In addition to Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia and other three provinces (districts, cities) registered more than 100 new energy vehicles in September. Loudi, Hunan alone, registered 100 new energy vehicles in September.
The proportion of pure electric vehicles is 92.98%, and the hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck continuously "erupts"
From the perspective of fuel types, from January to September this year, the technical route of new energy heavy trucks was still dominated by pure electric vehicles (including electric replacement pure electric vehicles). As shown in the figure below, from January to September this year, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in new energy heavy trucks reached 92.98%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points compared with 90.14% in the same period last year; The hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck and hybrid heavy truck accounted for 6.92% and 0.1% of the new energy heavy truck terminal sales from January to September of this year, respectively.
In 2021, the sales of hydrogen fuel cell models in new energy heavy truck terminals accounted for 7.46%. From January to September this year, 1056 hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks were sold, with a year-on-year growth of 160%. In the first September, the actual sales of new energy heavy truck terminals accounted for 6.92%. The figure below shows that in the first nine months of this year, the sales of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks exceeded 100 in only three months. In September, 219 hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks were actually sold, a sharp increase of 1188% over the same period last year, significantly outperforming the overall growth of the new energy heavy truck market. The hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks "broke out" for two consecutive months.
Under the national "dual carbon" strategy, the demonstration and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in urban agglomerations has become more and more extensive, and more and more heavy truck brands have chosen to enter this segment. From January to September this year, there were 15 enterprises selling fuel cell heavy trucks, one more than that after August. In September, Hebei Long March also joined the fight for fuel cell heavy trucks in 2022. From January to September this year, fuel cell heavy trucks represented by Foshan Feichi, Futian, Jiefang, Dongfeng, and Jinlong series have been put on the road in Beijing, Shanghai, Taiyuan, Shenzhen, Ordos, Linfen, Jiaxing, Foshan, Yulin, Guangzhou, Baoding, etc. In September, in Shanghai alone, there were four brands of fuel cell heavy trucks on the road: Foton, Suzhou Jinlong, SAIC Hongyan and Dayun.
Six enterprises hit a record in monthly sales of 331, and Yutong/XCMG are only 1 car short
In September, Sany Group won the first place in the monthly sales list of new energy heavy trucks with 586 vehicles, which is the fifth time in a year that Sany Group won the first place in the monthly sales list of new energy heavy trucks. It is worth mentioning that the monthly sales of 586 vehicles in September not only created the highest monthly sales record of Sany this year, but also the highest monthly sales record of a single brand in the new energy heavy truck market this year.
In September this year, there were 6 enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market whose sales volume exceeded 100%, 2 less than that in August. Since 2022, at least 5 enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market have sold more than 100 vehicles every month, and 9 enterprises have sold more than 100 vehicles in June. In September, the sales gap between neighboring enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market did not open: the difference between the second and third ranked Hanma Technology and Dongfeng was only 20; The difference between Xugong and Yutong ranked 4 and 5 is only 1, and the difference between Feichi and Dayun ranked 8 and 9 is only 6; In addition, the difference between Dayun and Heavy Truck is only 2, between Heavy Truck and Jiefang is 1, and between Jiefang and Hongyan is 2. Ranking exchange occurs every month.
In 2021, there will be 13 "players" in the new energy heavy truck market with sales of 100 vehicles or more, and after May this year, there will be 13 "players" with sales of more than 100 vehicles; After September, 15 enterprises have sold more than 100 vehicles accumulatively, among which the top 11 enterprises have sold more than 300 vehicles accumulatively, the top 7 enterprises have sold more than 1000 vehicles accumulatively, and SAIC Hongyan, the eighth one, is only one step away from the cumulative sales of 1000 vehicles.
From the perspective of growth, Sany, XCMG and Hanma Technologies, the top three companies in terms of cumulative sales from January to September this year, increased by 491%, 486% and 178% year on year respectively, of which Sany and XCMG both outperformed the "big market" of the new energy heavy truck market by a large margin; In addition, the growth rate in the first nine months of this year is also very amazing due to the small sales volume of Foton Automobile, Heavy Truck and Foshan Feichi in the same period last year.
From the perspective of market share, after September, Sany Group ranked first in the industry with a cumulative sales volume of 2648 vehicles, with a cumulative share of 17.34%, up 6.95 percentage points over the same period of last year; XCMG ranked the second in the industry with the cumulative sales volume of 2040 vehicles. The cumulative share in the first nine months of this year was 13.36%, an increase of 5.29 percentage points over the same period last year; The cumulative sales of Hanma Technology, Dongfeng, Yutong, Beiben and Foton, which ranked 3-7, also exceeded 1000, reaching 1875, 1621, 1395, 1185 and 1119 respectively, with the cumulative shares of 12.28%, 10.62%, 9.14%, 7.76% and 7.33% respectively. As of September, the seven enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market had accumulated sales of more than 1000 vehicles. After September, the gap between adjacent enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market has not been opened, and the cumulative share gap between multiple groups of "neighbors" is only a little more than 1%. The cumulative share gap between Beiben and Foton, Heavy Truck and Foshan Feichi, as well as Foshan Feichi and Dayun and other adjacent enterprises is even less than 0.5%. The "qualifying match" of new energy heavy trucks in 2022 will be stimulated month by month.
From January to September 2022, the overall market of new energy heavy trucks will achieve a growth of 254%. Some enterprises' share will increase significantly, while others' share will decline significantly. According to the analysis of First Commercial Vehicle Network, in addition to the increasingly fierce market competition, the sales structure of new energy heavy truck products continues to change significantly, which is also a major factor affecting the industry pattern.
In 2021, the market share of new energy tractors will continue to rise month by month, reaching 52.91% in the whole year; In the first month of 2022, the proportion of new energy tractors in new energy heavy trucks will exceed 50%, reaching 51.6%. After September, the proportion of new energy tractors will be close to 60%, reaching 58.41% (as shown in the figure above), an increase of 5.24 percentage points over the same period of last year; On the other hand, the proportion of new energy heavy-duty special vehicles above 12T in the first nine months was only 17.47%, a decrease of 11.22 percentage points over the same period last year.
The main reason for this is that under the national "dual carbon" background, the commercial operation of tractors with high transport efficiency in fixed line scenarios such as steel plants, power plants and ports is becoming more and more mature, and the scope of implementation is becoming wider and wider.
Tractors doubled year on year in September, and the number one Sany is approaching XCMG
As the most eye-catching segment of the new energy heavy truck market in 2022, the "report card" delivered by the new energy tractor market in September was: 1051 units were actually sold, with a year-on-year growth of 100%, which is different from the overall situation of the new energy heavy truck market. In September, the new energy tractor market fell slightly month on month compared with August, with a month on month decline of 5%. However, exceeding 1000 units is also a good performance, which is the fifth time that the new energy tractor market has exceeded 1000 units this year. According to the data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, 1051 new energy tractors registered in September this year accounted for 56.51% of the whole new energy heavy truck market, down from 60.04% last month.
In September, Sany won the first place in actual sales of new energy tractor terminals with 269 licensed vehicles; Hanma Technology and XCMG ranked second and third respectively. In September, 166 and 144 new energy tractors were sold, with a difference of only 22; Dongfeng, which ranked 4th in the monthly list, also had nearly 100 vehicles, reaching 98.
In 2021, there will be 12 new energy tractor brands with more than 100 licenses in the whole year; In the first month of 2022, the number will reach 5. After September, the number will reach 14. Xiamen Jinlong, BYD and other enterprises are not far away from selling 100 new energy tractors. In 2022, the number of new energy tractors will exceed 100. Club members will surely have many more "new friends" than in 2021.
In terms of growth, 8919 new energy tractors were sold in the first nine months of this year, up 289% year on year. All enterprises have achieved substantial growth. Due to the small base in the same period last year, all enterprises are growing by more than one hundred or thousands. It is worth mentioning that the number of "participants" in new energy tractors has also increased significantly: in the first nine months of 2021, there are 18 "players" in the new energy tractor market, including Hanma Technology, Beiben, BYD, Dongfeng, Foton, Nanjing Jinlong, etc; In the first month of 2022, the number of "players" in the new energy tractor market will reach 14. After September, the number of participants in this segment will reach 24, one more than that after August. From the growth trend of the number of participating enterprises, it can also be seen that the industry is optimistic about the prospects of this subdivided field, and the entry of more powerful "players" has made the competition in the field of new energy tractors more intense this year.
In terms of market share, from January to September this year, Hanma Technology ranked first in the industry with a cumulative sales of 1364 vehicles and a cumulative share of 15.29%; The cumulative sales of XCMG and Sany New Energy Tractors also exceeded 1000, reaching 1281 and 1235, respectively, with a cumulative share of 14.36% and 13.85%, ranking second and third temporarily. It is worth mentioning that after Sany New Energy Tractors won the "championship" in August and September, their cumulative sales have been very close to that of XCMG, ranking second, with a gap of less than 50; The cumulative sales of Beiben and Foton both exceeded 800 vehicles, ranking fourth and fifth in the new energy tractor market. The cumulative shares from January to September this year were 9.95% and 9.66%, respectively. The difference between the cumulative shares was less than 0.3%, and the difference between the cumulative sales was only 25 vehicles; SAIC Hongyan and Dongfeng, ranked sixth and seventh, also sold more than 600 vehicles, 792 and 658 vehicles, respectively, with their cumulative shares of 8.88% and 7.38%; In addition, the cumulative sales of Jiefang, Foshan Feichi, Heavy Duty Truck and Dayun also exceeded 200 vehicles. These four enterprises respectively captured 4.04%, 3.18%, 3.16% and 2.71% of the new energy tractor market from January to September this year. The gap between adjacent enterprises is not large. The industry pattern after October may be another scene. Foshan Feichi is just due to its good performance in September. After September, its cumulative sales exceeded that of Heavy Duty Truck, ranking ninth.
In 2022, the new energy heavy truck market and the new energy tractor market will continue to perform well. In September, the new energy heavy truck market also achieved the third highest performance in the year. From the data point of view, in the second half of 2021, the new energy heavy truck market has obviously started to "increase". The average monthly sales volume in the second half of last year is close to 1500 vehicles, and the average monthly sales volume in the fourth quarter is more than 2000 vehicles; In the third quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the new energy heavy truck market in the three months was 114%, 127% and 67% respectively, which has dropped significantly compared with the average year-on-year growth rate of 589% in the first half of this year. In the next fourth quarter, the new energy heavy truck market will continue to grow significantly, and even it will be more and more difficult to achieve growth. At the same time, the new and old "players" in the heavy truck industry are competing more and more fiercely on the new energy track. Can the fuel cell heavy trucks that have "erupted" for two consecutive months continue to "erupt"? The ownership of the monthly sales champion and the year-end sales champion is still in doubt, and the next "competition" will certainly be more exciting.
