In September 2022, the heavy truck market has changed from the "golden nine" in the traditional peak season to the "iron nine" in poor demand. How about the sales volume of mainstream enterprises? Is the exit still so bright?
The sales volume in September rose 13% month on month, with 520000 units sold in the first three quarters
In September, the heavy truck market continued to wait for "dawn" in the downturn. According to the latest data, in September this year, China's heavy truck market sold about 52000 units (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% down from 59200 units in the same period last year. 52000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year.
It is worth mentioning that the year-on-year decrease of 12% in September is the second lowest in history since the beginning of 2022, only second to the year-on-year decrease of 10% in August. However, although the year-on-year decline of the market in the last two months has been less than 15%, it is more due to the low sales base in the same period last year than to the recovery of terminal demand. The year-on-year decline is because the demand is still low+the inventory is high, while the decline is less because the base is too low in the same period last year.
With regard to the reasons for the sluggish market demand and the lower than expected sales volume of heavy trucks, it is still the problem of economic slowdown and lack of confidence. In addition, in September, various enterprises were still handling high inventories, which led to the transformation of "Jinjiu" into "Tiejiu". After September, the cumulative sales volume in the third quarter of this year was only 143400, down 23% year on year; From January to September this year, the heavy truck market sold 523500 units, down 58% from the same period last year (1233000 units), with a net decrease of 709000 units.
Foton's sales of 13000 heavy trucks rose against the trend for three consecutive months
Has the competition pattern of heavy truck industry changed since September? The data shows that in the market "qualifying race" in September this year, China National Heavy Truck ranked first with 13000 vehicles; Foton Motor Corporation and Shaanxi Automobile Group once again achieved counter trend growth (the two enterprises achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in August), and Foton Motor even achieved three consecutive year-on-year increases in monthly sales; Dayun Heavy Truck has kept the sixth place in the industry. The soaring export continues to be one of the few bright spots in the heavy truck industry (even can be seen as a "winner"), and enterprises with high export share, such as Heavy Truck and Shaanxi Automobile, continue to benefit from it.
Specifically, among the first echelon of heavy trucks, FAW Jiefang sold about 8600 heavy trucks in September this year, a single digit decrease (8%) year on year; From January to September 2022, the cumulative sales volume of Jiefang Heavy Truck will be about 99400, with a market share of about 19%.
CNHTC sold about 13000 heavy trucks in September this year, and its cumulative sales from January to September was about 125100, with the market share rising to 23.9%, up 4.2 percentage points year on year. Dongfeng Company (including Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Dongfeng Liuqi Chenglong, etc.) sold about 9100 heavy trucks in September this year; From January to September this year, Dongfeng Company has sold about 95700 heavy trucks of all kinds, with a market share of 18.3%, and the cumulative sales volume is still ranked the third in the industry.
Shaanxi Automobile Group sold about 10000 heavy trucks in September, up 12% year on year; Since the beginning of the year, Shaanxi Automobile has sold about 82400 heavy trucks, with a market share of 15.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The sales volume of Foton Motor in the last three months has been very impressive. It has been growing against the trend for three consecutive months and rising sharply for two consecutive months. In September, it delivered about 6000 vehicles with a 65% year-on-year growth against the trend. The growth rate is the highest among mainstream enterprises; Its cumulative sales from January to September was about 55500 vehicles, with a market share of about 10.6%, up 2.8 percentage points.
Dayun Heavy Truck sold 1103 vehicles in September, keeping the sixth place in the industry; Its cumulative sales from January to September were 14600 units, ranking sixth in the industry. Its market share from January to September was 2.8%, up 0.8 percentage points. SAIC Hongyan sold about 700 heavy trucks in September this year, and about 10900 heavy trucks from January to September 2022, with a market share of 2.1%, temporarily ranking seventh in the industry. XCMG sold 736 heavy trucks in September this year, and about 9900 from January to September, ranking the eighth in the industry, with a market share of 1.9%, up 0.6 percentage points. Jianghuai Automobile sold about 900 heavy trucks in September, with a cumulative sales of 9700 from January to September, representing a market share of 1.9%.
What will happen to the market in the fourth quarter?
The sales volume in September fell by 12% year on year. Will the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter improve? From the current situation, the industry situation is undergoing "subtle changes". On the one hand, all enterprises have been "digesting" the high inventory for several consecutive months, and the inventory in the fourth quarter will be relatively low. Heavy truck enterprises and dealers will have less "burden", and the sales volume will continue to improve month on month. In addition, the sales volume in the same period last year was at a low point (53500 vehicles), so there was a great probability of "double increase" in the heavy truck market in October on a month on month basis and year-on-year basis; On the other hand, on September 30, the Ministry of Transport, together with the Ministry of Finance, issued the "Notice on Periodical Reduction and Exemption of Truck Tolls on Toll Roads". The notice pointed out that, from 0:00 on October 1, 2022 to 24:00 on December 31, 2022, on the basis of continuing to implement the existing policies on reduction and exemption of various types of tolls, the toll roads nationwide will uniformly reduce the truck toll by another 10%. The implementation of this policy will bring a certain positive stimulus to the logistics market and truck market.
In this sense, the reduction of industry inventory+favorable policies will promote the continuous improvement of heavy truck industry sales in the fourth quarter of this year, and the sales in October and November are expected to achieve year-on-year growth. However, due to the unfavourable factors such as economic slowdown, low consumption and investment, sluggish logistics industry, and too many cars and too few goods, it is not appropriate to have high hopes for the sales in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the sales of heavy trucks in 2022 will be about 680000~700000, down about 50% year on year.
