As one of the most promising subdivisions of the heavy truck market in 2022, the heavy dump truck market has suffered a sharp decline from January to July in 2022, with an average decline of 82% from January to July. After July, the cumulative sales decline has reached 85%, making it the worst performing subdivisions, which is quite surprising; On the other hand, the process of new energy utilization of heavy duty dump trucks is fast (the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 8.82% from January to July, 2.1 times the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminal sales), and the competition pattern of heavy duty dump truck market has also changed due to its high penetration rate of new energy. Therefore, although this subdivided field has suffered a series of falls, there are still some interesting points and highlights.
Will the continuous landing of heavy dump trucks continue in August? Are there any new highlights?
Only 2886 vehicles were sold in August, down 71% year on year. Monthly sales hit a new low
According to the terminal sales data (compulsory traffic insurance coverage, excluding exports and military vehicles), in August 2022, the domestic heavy dump truck market sold 2886 vehicles in total, down 12% month on month and 71% year on year, 3 percentage points narrower than last month (- 74%). The 71% year-on-year decline has been the smallest decline in the heavy dump truck market this year, and 2886 vehicles are the lowest monthly sales this year. The analysis shows that in August, the heavy dump truck market created the minimum decline with the lowest monthly sales volume of less than 3000 vehicles in the year, which is not contradictory. The low sales volume is due to weak demand, and the minimum decline is due to the low sales volume in the same period (less than 10000 vehicles, the third lowest monthly sales volume last year). In this "same period", the demand of dump truck market is extremely bleak. So far, the heavy dump truck market has expanded to "14 consecutive drops" from the second half of 2021, with an average drop of 81% from January to August this year.
From the monthly trend of domestic heavy dump truck terminal sales in recent three years, the red line representing 2022 has been at a low level. The sales volume of less than 3000 vehicles in August this year is a complete bottom performance. The average monthly sales volume from January to August is only more than 4200 vehicles. You should know that the average sales volume of dump trucks in the second half of last year also exceeded 9000 vehicles when the market began to decline continuously. It can be seen from the above figure that in July and August last year, the heavy dump truck market showed a significant month on month decline (72% and 21% month on month respectively), but even so, the current market situation still cannot support a "growth". In August last year, the monthly sales volume of the heavy duty dump truck market dropped to below 10000 units. In the last four months of 2021, the average monthly sales volume of the heavy duty dump truck market was about 8200 units. According to the current market situation, there is almost no chance of success. If there is no substantial positive stimulus to demand, this year's continuous decline in the heavy dump truck market will continue.
Tractors, natural gas heavy trucks and other market segments hit the bottom in April, and began to "rebound" in May. In recent months, the cumulative sales decline has narrowed month by month, but the dump truck market has not followed the same path as other market segments. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the dump truck market has been expanding all the way this year. After June, the cumulative decline has reached 85%, and after July, the cumulative decline has stabilized at 85%. After August, the cumulative decline has finally narrowed slightly by 1 percentage point. However, the cumulative decline of more than 80% from January to August is still the worst in all segments of the heavy truck market. In terms of figures, the performance of the heavy dump truck market from January to August this year is undoubtedly surprising and disappointing.
In August, the domestic heavy dump truck terminal market dropped 71% year on year, and the mainstream enterprises (the top 10 in sales) in the heavy dump truck market shared 88.5% of the total market share.
In August, the year-on-year decline of the heavy duty dump truck market narrowed slightly compared with that in July, but 71% of the year-on-year decline still falls into the category of big drop. Many enterprises saw a decline of more than 70%. The sales of the enterprises with the most serious decline in the top ten dropped by 87% in August, but there are also Dongfeng, Foton, Dayun, Sany, 3rd Ring and other enterprises whose decline was significantly lower than the overall decline of the market, outperforming the "market". In addition, Yutong's sales volume in the same period last year was zero, representing a net growth.
In August, no enterprise in the heavy duty dump truck market had a monthly sales volume of more than 1000, and no enterprise in the heavy duty dump truck market had a monthly sales volume of more than 1000 for five consecutive months. Dongfeng Company, with 554 vehicles and a monthly share of 19.2%, won the first place in the heavy duty dump truck market in terms of monthly sales volume, which is the ninth consecutive month since December of last year that Dongfeng ranked first in this segment; In August, Shaanxi Automobile and Heavy Truck sold 343 and 339 heavy duty dump trucks, ranking 2nd and 3rd respectively, with only 4 vehicles difference, and their monthly share was 11.88% and 11.75% respectively; The fourth and fifth ranked Foton and Jiefang sold 310 and 279 vehicles respectively in August, with a monthly share of 10.74% and 9.67% respectively. In August, the market share of four heavy duty dump truck enterprises continued to exceed 10%, and the total share of the top five enterprises in sales volume reached 63.24%, narrowing compared with July (66.87%).
New energy vehicles accounted for 9.2% from January to August, and they are stirring the industry pattern
From January to August this year, the domestic heavy duty dump truck market has sold 34000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 84%. The cumulative decrease is 1 percentage point smaller than that in the previous July (- 85%), a net decrease of 177400 units compared with the same period last year, which is only about 16% of the sales in the same period last year. After August, the sales ranking of heavy dump truck terminals this year has changed a lot compared with that at the end of last year: Dongfeng and Heavy Truck, which ranked second and third at the end of last year, temporarily ranked the top two in the industry after August; FAW Jiefang has risen from No. 5 at the end of last year to No. 4 in the current industry; Futian and Universiade also rose from the 6th and 7th positions at the end of last year to the 5th and 6th positions in the industry; Last year, Sany Group, which had no name in the top ten of the year-end sales list, broke into the top ten, temporarily ranking the eighth in the industry with the cumulative sales of 1099 vehicles; XCMG Heavy Truck rose from the 10th place at the end of last year to the 9th place.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 6 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to August this year achieved an increase in share, with Dongfeng and Dayun having the largest share growth, up 4.26% and 3.59% respectively; The cumulative share of Sany Group also increased by more than 2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points; Futian, Xugong and Sanhuan increased by 0.98%, 0.85% and 0.55% respectively; If we expand the scope a little, Yutong, which currently ranks 11th in terms of cumulative sales, has increased its share in the heavy dump truck market by 1.82 percentage points compared with the same period last year from January to August this year.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only one of the top ten enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to August this year remained unchanged; Dongfeng, Jiefang, Futian, Universiade, Sany, XCMG and other six enterprises rose in the ranking, among which Dongfeng rose from the third place in the industry in the same period last year to the first place in the industry at present; Jiefang, Fukuda and Universiade all rose one place; Sany and XCMG rushed into the top 10 of the industry from the top 10 in the same period last year, of which Sany rose to the current 8th from the 12th in the same period, and XCMG rose to the 9th from the 11th in the same period; At present, Yutong, which ranks 11th in the industry temporarily, has risen rapidly from the top 20 in the same period last year (from January to August last year, Yutong only sold 51 vehicles). At the same time, more than one enterprise's industry ranking from January to August this year declined compared with the same period last year.
Sany, XCMG and Yutong, the three enterprises, have been on the top position in the heavy dump truck industry this year, which is closely related to the new energy transformation of the dump truck industry. The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that 3119 of the 34000 terminal sales of heavy duty dump trucks from January to August this year were new energy vehicles, accounting for 9.2%, 2.2 times the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminal sales (4.2%) in the previous August, and the highest proportion of new energy in the heavy truck market. From January to August this year, the "penetration" of new energy vehicles in the dump truck field is very fast. You should know that in 2021, new energy vehicles will account for less than 1% of the dump truck market in the whole year, while from January to August last year, this figure was only 0.25%.
This year, the fuel type structure of the heavy truck market has changed greatly compared with that of last year, and this is also the case in the dump truck field. It can be seen from the above figure that from January to August this year, although diesel power is still the fuel type with the highest proportion in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks, it has significantly decreased by about 10 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The total share of new energy vehicles (hybrid, fuel cell and pure electric) increased by 8.93 percentage points, of which the pure electric dump truck was the most prominent, with an increase of 8.61% over the same period last year; In addition, the proportion of heavy duty dump truck terminal sales from January to August this year also increased by 1.04 percentage points. The expansion of the proportion of new energy vehicles is stirring the industrial pattern of heavy dump trucks.
It can be seen from the above figure that among the top 12 enterprises in terms of heavy dump truck terminal sales from January to August this year, XCMG, Sany and Yutong accounted for a very high proportion of new energy vehicles, reaching 81.63%, 42.58% and 98.41% respectively. It is worth mentioning that XCMG, Yutong and Sany are also the top three enterprises in terms of new energy dump trucks from January to August; At the same time, the new energy accounts for more than 4% of the sales of dump trucks of top enterprises in the industries of Jiefang, Foton and Hongyan from January to August. Among them, the new energy models of Jiefang dump trucks account for 5.49%, which is the brand with the highest proportion of new energy among the top 5 heavy dump truck enterprises. According to the analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, under the background of the national "dual carbon strategy", new energy vehicles will be the new competition point in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks. Enterprises are still increasing their investment in new energy dump trucks. The market pattern of heavy-duty dump trucks is undergoing new changes because of this new competition point.
Conclusion: From January to August 2022, the heavy duty dump truck market suffered a sharp decline in succession. This segment, which was once considered the most promising segment of the heavy truck market this year, did not show the required "level" under the multiple influences of sluggish demand, less than expected project commencement, epidemic situation, etc. Next, the above influence is still there. Can the previously suppressed demand (if any) be "realized"? When can it be "realized"? Is still unknown; On the other hand, whether the new energy dump truck, which accounted for 9.2% of the total sales of dump truck terminals from January to August, can continue to grow at a high speed, is the focus of the next heavy dump truck market.
