The market research in China's construction machinery circulation field will be conducted from September 8-20, 2022. The excavator models in the following report are: small excavator ≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, and large excavator ≥ 28.5t; The provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan), Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang).
01. Feedback on domestic excavator market in September 2022
1. Year on year growth expectation of overall sales
The vast majority of the surveyed agents expect that the domestic excavator market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in September. 24.14% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, an increase of 6.92 percentage points over the previous month; 18.97%, 15.52%, 24.14% and 15.51% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year. Only 1.72% of the surveyed agents expect the market to be flat in September on a year-on-year basis. No agents expect to grow in September on a year-on-year basis. Up to now, the annual peak season is obscure.
2. YOY growth forecast of small excavator sales
93.10% of the dealers expect the domestic small excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in September, an increase of 1.16 percentage points over the same period in August. 22.41% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, and 13.79%, 15.52%, 27.59% and 13.79% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline by 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year. 6.9% of the agents predicted that the small excavation market in September was flat on a year-on-year basis. Last month, there were 2.39% of agents expected to increase, but no agents expected that small digging would increase year on year in September.
3. Year on year growth forecast of medium-sized excavator sales
94.83% of the surveyed agents predicted that the domestic medium mining market would decline year-on-year in September 2022, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points over the previous month. 29.32% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, and 13.79%, 15.52%, 22.41% and 13.79% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline by 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year. 5.17% of the agents are expected to be flat on a year-on-year basis, with an increase of 3.67 percentage points over the previous month. Last month, 1% of the agents predicted growth, but in September, no agent predicted that China Dig would grow year-on-year.
4. Year on year growth forecast of large excavator sales
96.55% of the surveyed agents predicted that the domestic large excavator market would decline to varying degrees year-on-year in September 2022, 0.11 percentage points worse than last month.
27.59% of the investigated agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, 10.34% are expected to decline by 41% - 50% year on year, 13.79% are expected to decline by 31% - 40% year on year, 22.41% are expected to decline by 21% - 30% year on year, and 22.42% are expected to decline by 0% - 20% year on year. They increased by 13.20, -10.72, -14.27, 16.19 and -4.30 percentage points respectively over the previous month.
1.73% and 1.72% of the surveyed agents are expected to be flat or slightly increased year on year, respectively 1.83 percentage points lower and 1.72 percentage points higher than the previous month; Based on this, the big digging is the only category in the excavator field that the agent expects to grow year-on-year in September. The short-term market demand for big digging is obviously differentiated, and the big digging market in resource provinces is expected to remain optimistic in September.
5. Statistics of operating rate of customer's equipment in September 2022
In the first two weeks of September 2022, 24.59% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate was lower than 40%, 3.90 percentage points worse than the end of August; 16.39% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate exceeded 60%, a slight decrease of 0.85 percentage points over the end of August; The proportion of customers with 50%~60% operating rate was 27.87%, a decrease of 4.89 percentage points. From the perspective of trend, September continued the trend of August, and the operating rate of customers' equipment around the country continued to deteriorate slightly. The expected operating rate of equipment around the country would improve by September, which is not obvious at present. However, considering the small peak season of the year, even if it is not obvious, it will also have a positive impact. It is expected that the operating rate will further improve by the end of September.
6. In September 2022, it is expected that the number of new orders for complete machine sales will change year on year
91.94% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales in September 2022 would decrease year on year, a slight decrease of 8.89 percentage points over the previous month, and 8.06% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales would increase year on year.
02. Monitoring feedback on domestic excavator market price in August 2022
In August 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic excavators will change month on month
In August 2022, in the domestic excavator market, the sales transaction price of large excavators will decrease by 2.41% month on month compared with July, and the decrease will be 0.17 percentage points slower than that of last month; The sales transaction price of medium-sized excavators decreased by 2.55% month on month (MoM) compared with July, and the decline worsened by 0.29 percentage points; The sales transaction price of small excavators decreased by 0.25% month on month, with a decrease of 0.76 percentage points.
03. Feedback on domestic excavator market inventory by the end of August 2022
At the end of August 2022, the average inventory of the investigated agents in the domestic market will be 33, 3 less than the same period last month, a decrease of 8.33%; Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T is 9, the average inventory of medium-sized excavators 19-30T is 11, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 13.
04. Feedback on domestic construction machinery market risk from August to September 2022
1. Statistics on overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment in August 2022
At the end of August 2022, in the domestic market, the overdue rates of Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 of financing, mortgage or installment payments of the surveyed customers were 7.31%, 6.64% and 6.93% on average, respectively, an increase of -0.36, 0.77 and 1.66 percentage points over the end of last month. The short-term overdue rate was improved, but the overdue conditions of Phase 2 and Phase 3 were slightly deteriorated.
2. In September 2022, the expected judgment of overdue rate of customer repayment
In September 2022, 67.74% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customer repayment would increase compared with August, and 32.26% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customer repayment would decrease month on month, representing an increase of 3.17 percentage points over the previous month. In September 2022, except for the southwest region, the judgment of the overdue trend in other regions has improved by different proportions compared with the same period last month, but only the agents in South China with the expected decrease in the overdue rate account for more than the agents with the expected increase in the overdue rate.
3. In August 2022, statistics of customer's equipment project payment collection rate
At the end of August 2022, the average value of the customer's payment collection rate for equipment engineering is 51.51%, 2.02 percentage points worse than the same period of the previous month, the maximum value is 96%, and the minimum value is 0%, 2 percentage points lower and equal respectively. The customer's payment collection has deteriorated slightly in the short term.
4. From August to September of 2022, the change statistics of customer equipment shift cost
In August 2022, the shift fee income of customer's equipment decreased by 4.35% year on year for large excavators, 2.71% year on year for medium excavators, and 2.57% year on year for small excavators. The shift fee income of small, medium, and large excavators decreased slightly.
In September 2022, the unit shift fee income of the customer's equipment is expected to decrease by 0.78% month on month for large excavators, 0.46% month on month for medium excavators, and 0.48% month on month for small excavators.
