In August, the commercial vehicle market gained its first growth of this year. Many segments achieved simultaneous growth, but the "good luck" of growth did not fall on all segments. Take the heavy truck and tractor market as an example. Since the demand is always difficult to improve, the market is slowly recovering. From January to August this year, the sales volume of tractor market only exceeded 20000 in June, and the average monthly sales volume in the previous August was less than 18000.
Then, will the tractor market in August fall by one keyword? Are there any other interesting points to pay attention to? Please read the analysis report.
The actual sales of 18900 tractors in August increased by 8% month on month
According to the latest terminal sales data, in August 2022, 18900 domestic tractors were sold (excluding exports and military products, the same below), with a month on month increase of 8%, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, and a sharp decrease of 27 percentage points compared with the previous month (- 51%). It is worth mentioning that since October last year, the tractor market has seen a sharp drop of more than 50% for 10 consecutive months, and the year-on-year drop in August this year has finally narrowed to less than 30%. Compared with the same period last year, the terminal sales volume of 18900 units in August this year decreased by about 6000 units, about 76% of the same period last year. This is the first time that the terminal sales volume of tractors this year exceeded 50% of the same period last year (from January to June this year, the terminal sales volume in no month exceeded 30% of the same period last year, and the sales volume in July was about 49% of the same period last year). The terminal sales volume of tractors in 2022 has experienced "eight consecutive drops".
In terms of figures alone, since the sales volume in the same period last year was not high (only 24800 vehicles, the second lowest monthly sales volume in 2021), August was considered to be the most promising month for the tractor market to grow this year, but in fact, this is not a high sales volume in the same period for the current market situation is still high (more than 7000 vehicles higher than the average sales volume from January to July this year); On the other hand, it is also the main reason - demand. Since 2022, the logistics and transportation market has never seen substantial benefits, which is really difficult to stimulate too much terminal demand.
It can be seen from the monthly trend chart of tractor terminal sales in recent three years that this year's tractor market can almost be described as "close to the ground". The sales curve of tractor market from January to August this year is only higher than that of February 2020, when the epidemic hit. In August of this year, the sales of 18900 tractors accounted for 47.98% of the terminal sales of the whole heavy truck market (1.3 percentage points higher than 46.67% in July). From January to August of this year, the sales of tractors in the terminal sales of the whole heavy truck market accounted for 43.94%.
18900 cars. This month's sales volume is hardly outstanding in any year. From January to August this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was only 17400 units. You should know that in the second half of last year, when the heavy truck market was affected by the "six country" regulation switch, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was close to 30000 units. However, considering the current lack of terminal demand, It is not easy to narrow the year-on-year decline of the tractor terminal market to 24% (the year-on-year decline of 24% of the tractor terminal market in August is not only the smallest this year, but also the first time that the year-on-year decline of the tractor terminal market has been less than 30% since July last year). The figure above shows that the cumulative decline of the tractor terminal market sales is narrowing month by month, and the cumulative decline after August is 6 percentage points smaller than that after April, However, the cumulative decline of more than 70% from January to August is still "shocking".
More than 30% of the liberated shares of Fukuda's first three TAs increased again
As the most competitive segment in the heavy truck market, the "fight" in the tractor market is the most exciting. When the industry goes down as a whole, enterprises are more active in fighting for the market, and the monthly ranking changes every month.
In August, none of the enterprises in the tractor terminal market continued to sell more than 10000 units, while five enterprises, Jiefang, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile, sold more than 1000 units, all exceeding 2000 units, with 5788 units, 3138 units, 3112 units, 2831 units and 2090 units sold respectively.
It can be seen from the above table that the tractor terminal market is finally growing again. In August, two of the top 12 enterprises in terms of terminal sales achieved growth. In August, the sales of XCMG and Hanma Technology increased by 13% and 70% year on year respectively; Most of the declining enterprises continued to experience double-digit declines, with more than 30% of the decline in many enterprises. Among the top ten enterprises with the worst decline in sales, the sales volume in August fell 65% year on year; However, many enterprises such as Jiefang, Futian, Dongfeng, Sany, Beiben, etc. saw year-on-year decline lower than that of the industry as a whole in August, outperforming the "market". It is worth mentioning that both Foton and Huma Technologies have outperformed the tractor market "market" for eight consecutive months this year. Huma Technologies achieved its third growth this year in August, and Foton has achieved its highest monthly ranking in the tractor terminal market this year - No. 3.
It is noted that the pace of the month on month growth of the tractor market is the same as that of the tractor market in August. Most enterprises in the tractor market achieved a month on month growth in August. Among the top 12 enterprises in terms of sales, 9 enterprises performed better in August than in July. Among the top 5 enterprises in the industry, Jiefang and Foton increased by 11% and 14% month on month respectively.
From the perspective of market share, the top ten enterprises of tractor terminal sales in August accounted for 97.72% of the whole market, and the enterprises after the top 10 only sold more than 400 vehicles in total. Among them, the monthly share of FAW Jiefang ranked first reached 30.68%, which is the second time that Jiefang's monthly share in the tractor market exceeded 30% this year (the last time was in May, the monthly share was 30.66%), and the cumulative share of Jiefang in the tractor terminal market from January to August this year has reached 29.28%; Sinotruk and Foton, which ranked second and third in sales volume in August, sold 3138 and 3112 tractors respectively, with only 26 differences, and their monthly shares were 16.64% and 16.5% respectively; Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. and Shaanxi Automobile Co., Ltd., ranking fourth and fifth, sold 2831 and 2090 vehicles respectively, with a monthly share of 15.01% and 11.08% respectively. The total share of the top five enterprises in August reached 89.91% (narrowing from 92.21% in July), and TOP 5 in the tractor industry continued to lead the major forces by a large advantage.
The first eight months: ranking changes month by month to "stir" the industry pattern of new energy
From January to August of this year, the cumulative actual sales of the tractor terminal market was only 139400, a sharp drop of 74% year on year, with a net decrease of about 390000, which is only 26% of the cumulative sales of the same period last year. The ranking of tractor terminal sales from January to August this year has changed greatly compared with the ranking at the end of 2021: Foton Motor, which ranks fifth at the end of 2021, temporarily ranks fourth in the industry after August; Sany and Universiade rose from the 7th and 8th positions at the end of 2021 to the 6th and 7th positions in the industry; Hanma Technology, which failed in the top ten at the end of the year last year, has outperformed the "market" for many consecutive months and is now ranked 9th in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 6 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to August this year achieved an increase in share. The most obvious growth was that of Foton, Jiefang and Dongfeng, with an increase of 2.66 percentage points, 1.32 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points respectively; The cumulative shares of Hanma Science and Technology, Universiade, XCMG and Sany increased by 0.66%, 0.55% and 0.24% respectively.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only four of the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales from January to August this year, namely Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng and Xugong, remained unchanged; Four enterprises, including Foton, Sany, Universiade and Hanma Technology, rose in the rankings. Among them, Hanma Technology rose from the 12th place in the industry in the same period last year to the 9th place in the current industry, Foton rose one place to the 4th place in the industry, and Sany and Universiade also rose one place compared with the same period last year. Of course, if there is a rise, there will be a fall. There is also more than one enterprise whose industry ranking from January to August this year has declined compared with the same period last year.
The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that from January to August this year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals accounted for 4.2%, while in the field of tractors, the proportion reached 5.64%. This year, 7868 of the 139400 tractors listed nationwide are new energy tractors. According to the observation of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, from January to August this year, all mainstream tractor enterprises have new energy tractors on the road. As of August, the proportion of new energy in the tractor terminal sales of three enterprises has exceeded 65%. Among the tractors sold by XCMG, Hanma Technology and Beiben this year, the proportion of new energy tractors has reached 71.69%, 67.88% and 66.69% respectively; In addition, Sany and SAIC Hongyan also accounted for 32.82% and 28.49% of new energy tractors respectively.
Among the top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry, Foton's new energy tractors accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 4.09%. The new energy models of tractors sold by Dongfeng and Sinotruk this year also accounted for 2.5% and 1% respectively.
From January to August of this year, most of the enterprises with a relatively high proportion of new energy in the sales volume of tractors achieved an increase in the industry ranking or market share. Taking Hanma Technology as an example, from January to August this year, Hanma Technology sold 1765 tractors in total, a year-on-year decrease of 45% (the smallest decline for mainstream enterprises), and its cumulative share increased by 0.66% compared with the same period last year. The industry ranking rose to the ninth place from the 12th place in the same period last year. This year, Hanma Technology sold 67.88% of tractors in new energy, which has contributed a lot to the "improvement" of Hanma Technology. In addition, Sany tractor kept the sixth place in the monthly list in August, which was also supported by its new energy tractor (205 new energy tractors were sold in August, ranking first).
Conclusion: In 2022, the competition in the tractor field has been extremely fierce since the beginning of the year. After eight rounds of fierce competition, the market pattern has changed; On the other hand, the competition in the tractor market this year is not only in the competition of traditional models, but also in the competition of new energy models. At present, the "dominant" enterprises in the field of new energy tractors are constantly stirring the tractor industry pattern.
Next, the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" peak season of the heavy truck market will come, and the sales of tractor terminals in September 2021 will not be high, with only 33200 units. Then, will the "peak season"+not high sales in the same period bring the first growth of the tractor terminal market in 2022?
