The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation has not been effectively curbed and complex domestic and international environment in 1-7 this year. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, China's equipment industry has maintained steady growth, strong growth in major product output, continuous improvement in enterprise efficiency and rapid overall growth in exports, but there is still insufficient effective demand. Upstream raw material prices and export transportation costs have risen sharply, and the stability of the industrial chain supply chain is still facing challenges. It is expected that the equipment industry will show a "high before low" operation trend throughout the year, and the task of high-quality development is extremely arduous. Based on the analysis of the above problems and situation, we put forward to focus on expanding domestic demand and continuously expand the application of innovative products; Strengthen accurate implementation of policies to help enterprises reduce cost pressure; Strengthen innovation drive and enhance the competitiveness of industrial chain and supply chain; Coordinate with various parties to alleviate the impact of rising maritime prices; Take multiple measures to solve the problem of difficult recruitment of enterprises and other policy measures.
1、 Overview from January to July
（1） Basic characteristics
1. Overall, it maintained steady growth, and the growth rate of operating revenue of major industries decreased month by month
With the continuous recovery of domestic and international demand, from January to July this year, China's equipment industry [1] maintained rapid growth as a whole. The growth rate of operating revenue of seven major industrial industries maintained double-digit growth, but the growth rate decreased month by month (see Table 1). From January to July, the operating revenue of China's equipment industry reached 17.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, a decrease of 30.9 percentage points over the first quarter and an average increase of 11.0% in the two years. Among them, the operating revenue of metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased rapidly year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, 25.2% and 32.9% respectively. The metal products industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and instrument manufacturing industry grew rapidly on average in the past two years, increasing by 14.7%, 11.5%, 13.6% and 11.9% respectively.
From January to July, the added value of major industries in the equipment industry maintained rapid growth. The added value of general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew by more than 20%, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% and 26.2% respectively, down 18.4 and 19.1 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter. The added value of automobile manufacturing industry increased by 16.7% year-on-year, down 38.4 percentage points from the first quarter, and the monthly added value maintained double-digit growth for 14 consecutive months.
2. The output of main products increased strongly, and the automobile output fell since June
With the recovery of the domestic economy, the output of major products of the equipment industry has increased strongly this year. From January to July, in addition to metal products, 69 of the 75 main products mainly monitored by 6 industrial categories achieved year-on-year growth. Among them, CNC metal cutting machine tools increased significantly. With the substantial growth of automobile manufacturing, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries, the recovery and growth of machine tool market demand have been driven. Since this year, the machine tool industry has shown a restorative growth trend. From January to July, the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools reached 155000, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%. Major agricultural machinery products have achieved substantial growth year-on-year, and the product structure has been continuously improved. During the epidemic last year, many enterprises were in short supply due to insufficient inventory. This year, some enterprises increased inventory, resulting in a large year-on-year increase in product output. The output of large tractors and harvesters continued the growth trend of last year and increased rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 46.6% and 35.8%.
The automobile manufacturing industry as a whole showed a strong growth trend. Since June, the output began to decline year-on-year. According to the statistics of motor vehicle qualification certificate of equipment industry development center of the Ministry of industry and information technology, from January to July, China produced 14.815 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. 10.664 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 18.4%; 4.511 million commercial vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 32.5%. In July, China produced 1.654 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points over June. The output of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth trend, and the market share increased significantly. In July, the output reached 237000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 147%. From January to July, a total of 1.367 million vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 206.6% and a market share of 9.2%. Since January this year, China's monthly output of new energy vehicles has remained above the scale of 120000. From May to July, the output has exceeded 200000 in three consecutive months, with a growth rate of about 1.5 times.
3. The enterprise's benefit continues to improve and tends to grow steadily
Profits maintained rapid growth. Benefiting from the improvement of market demand, the increase of enterprise orders and the strong demand for containers, from January to July, the total profit of the equipment industry reached 1.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4% and an average increase of 13.2% in the two years. The total profits of the seven industrial categories maintained double-digit growth year-on-year. Among them, the total profits of metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and instrument manufacturing industry increased rapidly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.9%, 25.7%, 30.2% and 20.4% respectively. In terms of the average growth rate in the two years, except for the automobile manufacturing industry and the manufacturing industry of railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment, other major industries performed prominently, maintaining an average double-digit growth in the two years.
The profitability of enterprises has been greatly improved. By the end of July, the number of loss making enterprises in the equipment industry was 28000, a decrease of 2.8% over the same period last year. From January to July, the profit margin of operating revenue of equipment industry reached 6.0%, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the profit margin of seven major industrial industries was basically the same as that of the same period last year. Among the seven industrial categories, the top two industries are special equipment manufacturing and instrument manufacturing, with operating revenue profit margins of 9.6% and 7.6% respectively.
4. Exports grew rapidly as a whole, but the growth rate slowed down
The pace of economic recovery after the epidemic in various countries around the world is unbalanced. As the first economy to recover and the largest recovery, a large number of foreign trade orders have been transferred to China. From January to July, the export of equipment industry increased rapidly, the export scale exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, and all seven major industrial industries basically achieved positive growth. Among them, the export delivery value of automobile manufacturing industry increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of 48.7%, 2.2 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. The performance of complete vehicles and engines in automobile manufacturing industry was outstanding, with a year-on-year increase of 75.0% and 84.1% respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value of general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and instrument manufacturing industry decreased by 9.9%, 28.9%, 11.6%, 13% and 11.2% respectively compared with the first quarter. General equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing maintained double-digit growth on average in the past two years.
（2） Trend analysis and judgment in the second half of the year
1. Overall trend analysis
Internationally, since the beginning of this year, the world economy has shown a slow recovery trend, but the speed and intensity of recovery are affected by many risks or uncertainties such as the repeated epidemic situation and the trend of major country relations. In addition, the new US government continues to suppress China as a whole. The external environment for the development of China's equipment industry is still complex and severe. At home, China's macroeconomic operation continues the trend of stable recovery, the economic cycle is increasingly unblocked, and the market expectation is constantly improved, which plays a good supporting role in the stable operation of the equipment industry. At the same time, we should also see that the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not firm, the domestic market cycle has not been fully formed, coupled with the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices and overseas transportation costs, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has a certain impact on exports, which has put some pressure on the stable operation of the equipment industry.
It is expected that in 2021, the equipment industry will show a "high before low" operation trend. The annual growth rate of industrial added value of the equipment industry is expected to be about 8.0%, and the foreign trade export is basically balanced. Subdivided industries will be further differentiated. With the rapid growth of market demand, the industries of new energy vehicles, machine tools and industrial robots will show a steady growth momentum. Affected by factors such as rising raw material prices, insufficient supply of castings, rising shipping costs and seasonal market demand, the growth rate of main economic indicators of agricultural machinery industry and construction machinery industry slowed down or even negative growth in the second half of the year.
2. Trend analysis and judgment of key areas
The industries of new energy vehicles, machine tools and industrial robots will show a steady growth momentum. In the automobile industry, from January to July, the automobile manufacturing industry as a whole showed a strong growth trend. However, due to the increasing impact of chip supply on enterprise production month by month, the sharp rise in raw material prices and the increasing cost pressure of enterprises, it is expected that China's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 27 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. Among them, new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 2 million, a year-on-year increase of 46%. For the machine tool industry, since this year, the market demand of the machine tool industry has increased rapidly, and the industry has operated steadily and well, which has laid a good foundation for the operation of the whole year. It is expected that the main economic indicators are expected to increase by more than 5%. In the industrial robot industry, with the further expansion of the application industry and the recovery of the automobile industry, the production and sales of products will maintain growth. It is expected that the industrial robot industry will run smoothly and well in 2021, and the production and sales growth rate is expected to be more than 20%.
Affected by the rising price of raw materials, insufficient supply of castings, rising shipping costs and other factors, the growth rate of main economic indicators of agricultural machinery industry and construction machinery industry slowed down or even negative growth in the second half of the year. In the agricultural machinery industry, due to the increase of inventory by some enterprises, the output increased significantly year-on-year from January to July this year. In 2020, the revenue and profit of the agricultural machinery industry increased significantly, improving the market saturation. At the same time, the recent rise in the prices of raw materials such as steel and rubber, the rise in shipping costs and frequent exchange rate fluctuations have led to an increase in the production costs of enterprises. Although the orders of export enterprises have increased, the export profits have decreased. It is expected that this year, the agricultural machinery industry will maintain the current boom, but the growth rate of major economic indicators will slow down. In the construction machinery industry, driven by investment demand in infrastructure construction and other aspects in the first half of the year, the sales of main products showed a significant growth trend. In the second half of the year, with the decline of market demand, the market performance of construction machinery products will further decline. In the third quarter, some products will decline in the current month, and the cumulative growth rate will also decline month by month. The high price of raw materials and the failure of local funds to be in place in time have led to the stagnation of construction of some engineering projects and other adverse factors, resulting in a large decline in excavator sales. Whether the annual growth can be achieved depends on the depth adjustment in subsequent months.
2： Main problems
At present, the production and operation recovery of the equipment industry has achieved phased results. However, due to the characteristics of the industry itself, such as long industrial chain and wide cross regional scope, there are still problems such as insufficient effective demand, sharp rise in upstream raw material prices and export transportation costs, and challenges to the stability of the industrial chain supply chain.
（1） Uncertainty still exists in the world economy, and domestic demand has not fully recovered
At present, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has not been effectively curbed. The export of automobile spare parts, electrical appliances, general equipment, instruments and meters in China's equipment industry may be faced with problems such as insufficient export orders and possible performance of the project. The subsequent impact of Sino US trade friction will also affect the international competitiveness of China's equipment industrial products to a certain extent. Although the production and operation order of domestic enterprises continues to improve, the market demand has not been fully restored, and the lack of orders reflected by enterprises is still a prominent difficulty encountered in the production and operation of enterprises.
（2） The price of upstream raw materials has risen sharply, and the production and operation profits of enterprises have shrunk
Affected by the continuous sharp rise in the price of major international raw materials, the gradual withdrawal of preferential policies such as credit during the epidemic, the phased structural shortage of labor and the double control of energy consumption superimposed on the switching and power restriction in some places, the operating costs of enterprises in the equipment industry increased rapidly and the operating profits contracted relatively. From January to July, affected by the rapid rise in operating costs, the total profit of the equipment industry increased by 24.4% year-on-year, 32.9 percentage points lower than that of the national industry.
（3） The sharp increase in export transportation costs has an impact on international competitiveness
Since 2020, due to the continuous overseas epidemic and the driving up of freight and other factors, the export of equipment products has encountered difficulties in sea transportation, railway transportation and air transportation, the freight cost has increased sharply, and it is difficult to find shipping space, which has a negative impact on the global economic recovery, increasing the operation pressure and cost pressure of China's equipment industry enterprises, The international competitiveness of China's equipment industry enterprises has been impacted to a certain extent. According to the China Automobile Industry Association, since the third quarter of last year, the price of shipping containers began to rise significantly, and it is still difficult to book space under the high price. Warehouse explosion and container dumping have become the norm, resulting in a significant increase in the logistics cost of export enterprises. Due to the lack of transport capacity, some export booking enterprises have to face cancellation or delayed shipment, increasing business risks and pressure.
（4） The gap between chip supply and demand has expanded, and the stability of the industrial chain still faces challenges
At present, the novel coronavirus pneumonia and the core components of China's equipment industry are highly dependent on foreign countries. The new global crown pneumonia epidemic has not been effectively curbed, and protectionism and unilateralism have risen. From January to July, the global supply-demand gap of high-end chips further expanded, affecting 169 industries around the world. According to the statistics of the Automobile Association, at present, the supply chain risk of the automobile industry is mainly concentrated in the field of chips, and most enterprises have been affected by chip supply interruption. In addition, some enterprises reported problems in battery supply and a shortage of battery raw materials.
3、 Suggestions on policy measures
（1） We will strive to expand domestic demand and continue to expand the application of innovative products
First, adhere to the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand, stimulate the investment vitality of the whole society, and increase investment in manufacturing equipment renewal and technological transformation. Second, promote the electrification of vehicles in the public domain, improve charging and replacement facilities, further tap the potential of domestic demand, and stabilize and expand automobile consumption. Third, improve the promotion and application policies of the first domestic (set) major technical equipment, introduce relevant fault-tolerant mechanisms, and reduce the risk of using domestic products by means of benefit sharing and risk sharing.
（2） Strengthen accurate implementation of policies to help enterprises reduce cost pressure
First, continue to increase financial support for the real economy, increase loan interest discount, medium and long-term low interest loans, and alleviate the shortage of funds for enterprises. Second, standardize the market order of upstream raw materials and outward transportation, formulate flexible policies, reasonably regulate the freight and upstream material prices, and alleviate the cost pressure of enterprises. Third, implement export tax rebates, export credit insurance and other policy tools to stabilize foreign trade, continue to expand export credit, and support equipment enterprises to expand overseas markets.
（3） Strengthen innovation drive and enhance the competitiveness of industrial chain and supply chain
First, we will accelerate the implementation of chain strengthening actions in industries such as industrial machine tools, high-end medical equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles, implement industrial foundation reengineering and high-quality development funds, support industry backbone enterprises to take the lead, upstream and downstream enterprises and R & D institutions to form consortia, carry out joint research, and promote iterative upgrading of product applications. Second, focus on the "double carbon" objectives and requirements, clarify the innovation and development objectives, key paths, policies and measures of green and low-carbon technology and equipment, and accelerate the cultivation of green and low-carbon technology and equipment industry.
（4） Multi party coordination to mitigate the impact of rising sea freight prices
First, do a good job in epidemic prevention and control. Guide local ports and transportation and shipping departments to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and ensure smooth traffic. Avoid the spread of the epidemic in many areas of Guangdong and congestion in many ports in South China in the first half of this year. Second, promote the coordination of air and railway transportation allocation and alleviate the pressure of shipping cost. Help enterprises solve specific difficulties and ensure the transportation of key customers and key materials. For example, the transportation of people's livelihood materials and epidemic prevention materials. Promote and coordinate the allocation of equipment industrial products, epidemic prevention materials and online e-commerce consumer goods. The third is to consider the introduction of outward transportation management regulations to reasonably limit the rise of shipping costs. It is suggested that the market supervision department and the Ministry of transport strengthen the supervision of charges at maritime ports and investigate and deal with illegal charges according to law. Actively coordinate with international liner companies to increase the transport capacity of China's export routes and the supply of containers. Encourage container manufacturing enterprises to increase production and improve container turnover efficiency at the same time.
（5） Take multiple measures to solve the problem of difficult recruitment of enterprises
First, improve the employment service capacity and improve the employment situation monitoring mechanism. We should speed up the construction of supply and demand information service platform, enhance the employment service ability, give full play to the awesome advantages of network and mobile terminals, increase the supply of online services, broaden the channels for the supply and demand sides to exchange information and realize docking, and monitor the employment situation in real time. Second, adhere to the interactive and integrated development of industry and city, and improve the talent security system. We will improve the connection methods of endowment insurance in the flow of talents, strengthen the supervision of the implementation of social security policies, and urge employers to fully implement all kinds of social insurance according to regulations. According to the concept of industry city integration, improve the service functions such as housing, finance and transportation, and effectively solve the problem of food, housing, education, medicine and entertainment for employees in the park. Third, strengthen the construction of technical backbone and skilled personnel. Strive to establish a school enterprise cooperation training mechanism, optimize the layout and specialty setting of vocational schools, encourage enterprises to organize self-training, actively connect with high school vocational training schools, carry out school enterprise cooperation in running schools, and implement "order type" training.
[1] Equipment industry includes metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and instrument manufacturing industry.
