Mechanical engineering is closely related to national policy and infrastructure industry, last week we briefly review the 2017 national introduction of related engineering machinery in this small series of policies and regulations, it is necessary to point out that although these regulations were launched in 2017 but will affect the long period of time. With the knocking of the New Year bell, we have entered the 2018. What factors will affect the development of construction machinery industry in the new year?
1, environmental protection
Environmental protection, without doubt, is the first factor affecting the development of the in 2018. In August 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection and the national development and Reform Commission, Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued a notice on the issuance of the "Beijing Tianjin and surrounding areas 2017-2018 years of comprehensive management of air pollution in winter and autumn crucial action plan", after the comprehensive management of autumn and winter, from October 2017 to March 2018, Beijing city PM2.5 to an average depth of 25% year-on-year decline, the number of days of heavy pollution fell 20% Tianjin city; the average concentration of PM2.5 also fell to 25%, the number of days of heavy pollution also fell to 20%; Baoding City, the average concentration of PM2.5 fell to 22%, the number of days of heavy pollution in Langfang fell by 20%; the average concentration of PM2.5 fell to 18%, the number of days of heavy pollution fell 15%. It is foreseeable that in 2018, the national requirements for environmental protection will be higher, environmental supervision will be more stringent, environmentally friendly products will be more popular in the market.
"People's Republic of China environmental protection law" has been officially implemented in January 1, 2018, the State Council has clearly defined the environmental protection tax income of the local charge all to place all this, to enhance the enthusiasm of local government, alleviate the pressure of local finances, will have a positive impact on the establishment of long-term management mechanism.
2, the structural reform of the supply side
In the nineteen report, it is put forward that building a modern economic system must focus the development of the economy on the real economy, improve the quality of the supply system as the main direction, and significantly enhance the economic quality advantage of our country. Accelerate the construction of manufacturing power, accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry, to promote the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the real economy of the depth of integration, in the high-end consumption, innovation lead, green and low-carbon economy, and sharing of modern supply chain, human capital services and other areas to cultivate new growth points, the formation of new energy. We should support the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, speed up the development of modern service industry, and aim at improving the level of international standards.
Go through the capacity to inventory, to leverage, to reduce cost, make a short board, optimizing the storage allocation of resources, efforts to promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, is an important task of engineering machinery industry is currently facing. In deepening the structural reform of supply side, the problem to be solved in construction machinery industry is not the speed of development, but the realization of high quality and high level of development and progress. With the further development of supply side structural reform, the rapid development of infrastructure such as high-speed rail, highways, bridges, ports and airports has brought wider development space to the construction machinery industry.
3, The Belt and Road
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the import and export trade volume of China's construction machinery was 19 billion 414 million US dollars from 1 to October 2017, up 17.7% from the same period. The amount of imports was 3 billion 306 million US dollars, up 23.8% over the same period last year, and the export amount was 16 billion 108 million US dollars, up 17.6% compared to the same period last year, and the trade surplus was 12 billion 802 million US dollars, up 1 billion 892 million US dollars compared with the same period last year.
In 2017 the world economy maintained obvious recovery trend, major economies growth rate is higher than the level of 2016, the United States, the euro zone economic steady growth in emerging Asian economies to maintain rapid growth, the Russian region and Latin American economies from negative to positive economic growth, the Middle East and North Africa affected by political factors decline in economic growth. "The Belt and Road" initiative to effectively promote the construction machinery exports, with the global construction machinery market, the construction of infrastructure, coupled with the overseas layout of the domestic engineering machinery enterprises gradually deepening, the future growth in overseas markets is expected to better. "The main growth The Belt and Road" is the engineering machinery, 2018 overseas exports is expected to grow more than 10%.
4, update and replace
The four emission standards of China's construction machinery will enter the implementation stage from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021. The determination of the implementation time of the four emissions of the country will certainly usher in a large number of three products in the country. In engineering machinery excavator as an example, the use of the product cycle is generally eight years or so, a peak for 2009-2011 years, at a time when the peak of the upgrading of products, although since 2017 to replace the proportion of demand has increased dramatically, becoming the main source of demand for construction machinery. As the industry will usher in the peak replacement period of stock equipment in 2018-2020 years, although the growth rate of downstream investment is slowing down and the total volume of equipment is slowing down, the high volume of construction machinery is expected to continue in 2018, considering the peak period of stock equipment replacement.
5, intelligentized
Intelligence has become a word in recent years repeatedly mentioned, before the Shenzhen city bus first unmanned Taiwan news, again will be intelligent and unmanned pushed in the teeth of the storm. In the engineering machinery industry, pilotless technology is no longer a rare thing, many enterprises have mastered this technology. Intellectualization is closely related to "made in China 2025". Realizing the intellectualization of construction machinery can not only greatly improve the overall level of China's manufacturing, but also reduce labor intensity and operation cost, and help customers improve profitability better. At present, what we lack is not intelligent technology, but the application of intelligent technology and the corresponding results. Only by increasing the intelligentized propaganda and making its results more beneficial to the grassroots users, can the intelligentized popularization be promoted better.
6, PPP
In November 17, 2017, the SASAC issued a formal document No. 192 "on the central enterprises PPP business risk management notice", clearly put forward to the PPP project to control the total costs, had to return blindlylaunch projects; through the financial capacity of the project, a priority for development and reform, financial storage project. Control the scale of investment in more than last year 50% of the net assets is not allowed, the balance is higher than 85% or a loss of nearly 2 years of continuous sub enterprise PPP investment project, not a single central enterprises need to have the PPP debt of local government revenue to ensure that no security projects may face exit or re design, not only the financing, construction and operation, etc..
This notice is for PPP, the central enterprises are the main social capital providers. Now the trend of central enterprises' investment in PPP will be tightened. For PPP, in general, it will help PPP's standardization, and there will be more opportunities for private capital. For the future PPP, it will be a change from quantity to quality, which is beneficial to the development of the engineering machinery industry.
Industry sources predict, 2018 construction machinery industry will maintain a growth rate of about 10%-30%, high growth is expected to continue, the product replacement replacement, "The Belt and Road" is still a strong growth point. The construction machinery industry is a strong cyclical industry. In the long run, it is easily affected by the factors such as real estate investment and the slow growth of infrastructure investment. In 2018, China's real estate investment or will continue to fall, infrastructure investment growth will slow, the macro demand index marginal decline, but after the rapid growth in 2017, engineering machinery and further enhance the anti risk ability, the product renewal brought strong market demand, in 2018 continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum is possible.
