In 2017, the construction machinery industry in China was represented by the main products such as excavators, loaders, cranes and so on. The industry is stable and rising. The situation is very good. Then, what economic environment and market opportunities will China's construction machinery industry face in 2018?
Macro economic outlook: in the global industrial revolution and new Juglar cycle two traction, China's economy is expected to achieve the main driving force from the small real estate cycle, make up the inventory cycle to cycle (capital expenditure cycle) of the switch, four light Chinese upgrade new energy economy.
The global economy, inflation or a slight acceleration in 2018
With the US tax cut led, the world is likely to form a new round of tax cuts. The global economic situation is: the three major cycles of the developed economies are upwards, and the global economy continues to recover. Although the labor productivity of the world's major economies still to recovery, but the capital expenditure G3 (Jugra) period, the trade cycle and financial cycle resonance upward, the developed economies would grow steadily, provide a more favorable external environment for our country.
China's economic growth or stability up to 6.9% in two and 2018
In 2018 China's economy maintained a steady upward, before the low high pace; investment in fixed assets in 2018 or stabilized at around 7.5%: real estate investment is slightly down (from 8% in 2017 to about 4.5%), but the manufacturing investment is a high probability rise (rose from 4% in 2017 to about 7%), infrastructure investment is expected to maintain 14-16% growth; manufacturing investment picked up mainly by the global and Juglar cycle of the new industrial revolution, driven by China's enterprises "production automation and management information to speed up the transformation, environmental protection equipment upgrades, and capacity utilization rate rose significantly; expected fiscal policy of China: steady monetary, financial, fiscal tightening wide.
Three, the five bright spots of China's new economic kinetic energy
1, the upgrading of the manufacturing industry: global industrial revolution and new Juglar cycle, high-end equipment manufacturing industry upgrading; 2, consumption upgrade and enhance the rate of consumption is mainly influenced by income continues to ascend continued in the high-speed growth, the wealth effect of emerging and poverty alleviation work; 3, upgrading the urbanization strategy: from the previous local towns upgrade to the city group as the main town, will be steady investment (rail and real estate investment), also can exert the effect of scale economy; 4, the FTA upgrade: the reform and opening up 40th anniversary, or into the opening of new period, opening up China's service sector will take a new step, the FTA is more likely to upgrade. 5. Xiong an new area has been transferred from the plan to the implementation stage, which has become a new driving force in the field of construction.
What market opportunities are facing in 2018
The first and nineteen sets of new journey
After nineteen, Chinese socialism into a new era, opened the two one hundred year struggle into a new journey, Chinese economic structure upgrade stage, industrial structure and consumption structure of continuous adjustment, the change of government brought about the political cycle, infrastructure investment will be strengthened, for the construction machinery industry development. In 2018, China's economic growth will increase by the rapid growth of high quality successfully switched, to maintain the overall situation of maintaining stability, the stability is the economic growth rate will not fall sharply, "into" is the economic structure continued to improve.
Nineteen promote the sustainable economic development tasks include: speeding up the construction of manufacturing power, accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry, to promote the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the depth of the real economy integration; to promote China's high-end industry to the global value chain, foster a number of world-class advanced manufacturing cluster; strengthen the construction of water conservancy, railway, highway, water, air and pipeline, information infrastructure and logistics network; stimulate and protect the entrepreneurial spirit; support the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries.
The central economic work conference pointed out that 2018 is the spirit of the party's nineteen at the beginning of the year, is the reform and opening up of 40th anniversary, is the comprehensive well-off society, built a crucial year for the implementation of the "13th Five-Year plan" link. From 2020 to 2035, we basically realized the socialist modernization. From 2035 to 2050, we built our country into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modern power.
Two. China's investment and construction continued to grow
Chinese highway, subway, underground pipe gallery, the new urban investment growth significantly, the next three years will become the major growth point, transport investment will be reduced, PPP mode is gradually mature in the country under control, become the future steady growth momentum, real estate tends to be stable in the main tone of maintaining stability "policy continuity, not. There is change radically.
1, infrastructure construction: infrastructure investment in general maintained a rapid growth. The investment in the fixed assets of the highway was about 3 trillion and 700 billion yuan, up 24.6% from the same period, and the growth rate increased by 9 percentage points over the same period. It is estimated that the investment of highway is about 4 trillion. The scale of construction enterprises is growing rapidly, and there are 7 Chinese companies in the top 10 construction companies in the world.
In 2 and 2018, the investment arrangement for fixed assets of railway was 732 billion yuan. China Railway has announced that in 2017, the national railway completed the investment of 801 billion yuan for fixed assets and more than 2100 kilometers in the new line of production. By the end of 2017, the mileage of China's railways has reached 127 thousand kilometers, of which 25 thousand kilometers of high speed railway. In addition, in 2018, the national railway fixed assets investment will be arranged by 732 billion yuan, and the new line will be put into production 4000 kilometers, of which the high speed rail is 3500 kilometers.
3, real estate: real estate development investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year; the total sales of commercial housing increased by 12.7%, and the new area of real estate began to increase by 6.9%.
4, mining industry: the investment in fixed assets of mining industry fell 10.2% year on year, but the decline continued to narrow, and the output of raw coal increased by 3.7% over the same period. After the supply side reform, production capacity has been concentrated on large open-pit coal mines and mines. The volume of production has increased significantly. Influenced by regulation and control, large mines and open-air customers have enhanced capital control for equipment and so on. The trend of equipment leasing is obvious.
5, PPP accelerated landing: 2016 PPP development year, then 2017 is the PPP project to accelerate the year of landing. China has become the world's largest and most influential PPP market, as of July, PPP storage project 14220, a total investment of 17 trillion and 800 billion yuan, an increase of 27.8%, with the policy of mature, private capital will be involved in the PPP project, led by state-owned status will change.
Three, The Belt and Road initiative to open new growth space, drive the development of enterprise internationalization
"The Belt and Road" accelerated into the 2 era, the Chinese construction enterprises in the local market share increased year by year, landing the main economic corridor leading Chinese, according to ENR statistics, in the African market share of 54.9%, 25% market share in Asia, the Middle East market share is 17.2%.
In 2017 1-11 months, "The Belt and Road" along the 61 countries foreign contracted projects 6201 copies of the contract, the new contract amount of $113 billion 520 million, which accounted for 54.1% of China's new contract amount of foreign contracted projects, an increase of 13.1%.
The interoperability of infrastructure as "vanguard Belt and Road Initiative", directly stimulate the rapid recovery of China engineering machinery industry. According to the financial industry is expected in the next ten years, "The Belt and Road along national key infrastructure construction need at least $800 billion.
China engineering machinery enterprises relying on the The Belt and Road "and actively expand international operations, strengthen along the layout of the country, with significant. In 2017 Chinese engineering machinery exports hit a record high, by the end of November, import and export trade volume reached US $21 billion 800 million, an increase of 19.4%. The export of The Belt and Road along the countries and regions reached $7 billion 860 million, an increase of 17.2%, accounting for 43.4% of total exports.
The construction machinery market is the national strategy of "going out" in stride! "The Belt and Road along the country is now the main national Chinese engineering machinery exports, with the strategy of engineering machinery, overseas sales in China accounted for a further increase, is expected to contribute The Belt and Road" market of overseas revenue is expected to more than 50%, become a strong motive power of China Construction Machinery rapid growth.
Four. Environmental policies normalize, standardize the market and promote sustainable development
1, the country's environmental protection inspectors, emission standard upgrade time, local governments continue to overweight to superovulation engineering machinery in the new control measures, shows that the government attaches importance to environmental protection, environmental regulation will become the norm in the future, but also China economy to the inevitable trend of thedevelopment of high quality, have a positive impact on the sustainable development of the construction machinery the market, bring the market long-term healthy and prosperous development.
The central environmental protection inspector, from the environmental protection department to the central leadership, has transformed from "checking up the enterprises" to "checking and supervising simultaneously, and supervising the government", which is a significant change in the environmental supervision mode. From 2016 to 2017, the central environmental protection inspector completed the coverage of all provinces in the country. The environmental protection supervision center was transferred to the Ministry of environmental protection and sent an administrative organ. It was officially renamed the "Inspectorate bureau" to further strengthen supervision. This also means that the central environmental supervision will become the norm.
2, professional agencies test, the emissions of a non road mobile machinery is equivalent to the emissions of 30 medium-sized cars, and the use of low grade fuel oil has a great impact on the environment.
In autumn and winter, the whole country has carried out a lot of action on the comprehensive treatment of air pollution. , , bulldozers and other highly polluting non road mobile machinery have become important governance objects. Many announcements have been issued to prohibit the use of high emission non road mobile machinery area. After the regulations of Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Huizhou, Dongguan, Wuhan, Wuhan, Wuhan, and so on were issued, it was forbidden to use high emission non road mobile machines in the designated areas, and the offenders were fined at the top.
According to statistics, about 2 million 500 thousand of the old machinery of the construction machinery will be eliminated. Among them, about 1400000 of the old machines belonging to one country or below, and two of the country's old machines are about 1 million. And the quantity of these equipment accounts for 1/3 of the domestic construction machinery market. That is to say, under normal circumstances, there will be about 2 million 500 thousand national zero, country one and country two construction machinery and equipment in the future. In the long run, accelerating the elimination of high emission non road machinery will significantly enhance the demand for equipment renewal.
