As a star product in the field of engineering machinery, the market of excavators has not risen for many years. It is the habit of manufacturers and agents to go to stock and price promotion.
This situation is about to change. In 2018, the price of the excavator and other engineering machinery products will be "open up" for a year.
At present, industry giants have issued a signal of price rises successively. Industry figures are expected that in 2018, the market will be "up and down", expected January sales growth or up to 200%, the annual growth rate will reach 20%.
A wave of "rising price" will be set off by engineering machinery and equipment
The sound of the increase of the excavator was made by the Komatsu company. Komatsu days prior to the agency issued a notice saying, "affected by the national environmental policy, labor, raw material prices, leading to rising production costs; the company since January 1, 2018, Komatsu models will be price increases, the price increases the amount of details issued separately."
As the company with the highest market share, Sany is more cautious about the price rise. The company has not yet issued a formal price rise document. But the company has also sent a signal of price rises.
People in Sany said the price of steel increased in 2017. Steel enterprises have always been the most core suppliers in the engineering machinery industry. This also indicates that engineering machinery and equipment will set off a "rise in price".
Therefore, Sany people suggest: "in the year after the purchase of the users of the plan, may wish to use the form of reservations or early purchase, to avoid this rise in price."
Data show that in December 5, 2017, the steel price index of the West Shinkansen reached 5230 points, a record high of 6 and a half years, and the price index of steel has increased by 50% over the same period last year.
For the construction machinery manufacturers, the cost pressure is not only reflected in the price of steel, but also the pressure of the cost increase of the other parts, such as hydraulic parts and bearings.
The latest data showed that PPI rose 5.8% in November 2017 over the same period in November, of which the PPI of general equipment manufacturing rose by 1.3%.
The price index of the industrial product factory is an index to measure the change trend and the degree of change of the production price of the industrial enterprises. Since the beginning of 2016 months, PPI and steel prices has been in a rising channel in the whole.
In this process, Sany, Liugong and other engineering machinery manufacturers still do not easily raise prices, the cost of digestion can be digested as much as possible. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2017, the contradiction between the cost and the price of the construction machinery products has reached the edge of the outbreak.
New environmental protection regulations increase the voice of the seller
Since the new year, the new regulations on environmental protection have also increased the bottom of the "price rise" of the excavators.
In January 5th, the Chengdu Municipal People's government issued "on the delineation of high emissions of non road mobile machinery prohibited area notice", from February 1, 2018 onwards, in the city of Chengdu will be designated high emissions of non road mobile machinery prohibited area, to further improve the air quality of the environment, reduce pollution emissions of non road mobile machinery.
According to reports, engineering machinery and many small boss will buy two mobile phone or cheap small manufacturers of equipment in the selection of equipment, this equipment due to manufacturing process does not pass, when in use will cause pollution of black smoke and other serious consequences, which is particularly evident in the second-hand equipment. In the face of the environmental storm, the equipment that does not pass out will face "early retirement".
In Chengdu, which is about to implement the new environmental protection regulations, many customers have said that the equipment has not been returned, and the equipment can only be shipped to the place where the policy is not so strict. They say the follow - up will not choose the product, but it can only be a bit of a point before the environmental policy is fully covered.
In 2018, more customers will not be able to find projects in the field, only to be forced to scrap high emission old machines and to buy new machines in advance.
At present, Nanjing, Chongqing, Huizhou, Ji'nan, Jining, Laiwu and other cities have been banned by high emission machines.
People in the industry believe that in the background of the strict environmental protection standards, the elimination of high emission equipment and the rapid expansion of the prohibition area have the trend of rapid expansion. In order to prevent the risk, the customer will prefer to choose the equipment produced by the leading enterprise of environmental protection.
Which companies are unanimously favored by securities firms?
"The price increase of the Komatsu excavator is a continuous signal for the excavator industry." Wang Huajun, an analyst at China and Thai securities, believes that other mainstream manufacturers have a bigger chance of following up in the period when the industry starts and sells well. If the Komatsu price increases, leading other construction machinery manufacturers to follow up, the gross profit margin of the excavator industry will be significantly improved, and the profitability of construction machinery enterprises in 2018 is expected to further improve.
According to the calculation of Liu Zhenyu's livelihood securities, the growth rate of real estate investment in 2018 is about 5%-6%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is about 15%. According to the "13th Five-Year" during the highway construction planning, the country is expected to add mileage of nearly 50 thousand kilometers, or 2020 highway mileage exceeded 170 thousand kilometers, the annual compound growth rate will remain above 6.4%. Increase the benefit from the construction demand of downstream highway construction, railway, excavators and other engineering machinery products demand continues to pick up, in the downstream supply remains tight under the condition that the excavator industry is expected to usher in the volume and price pattern, promote the construction machinery product sales continued high growth trend.
Analysts at Soochow Securities said that the current sales volume of excavators is consistent with the domestic market situation. Considering the high base effect in 2017, the industry growth rate will gradually decline in the future. In the next three years, the overall market of the will maintain a steady oscillation trend, and it is expected that the 2018-2020 year sales will fluctuate up and down in 130 thousand sets. At present, the upstream parts enterprises are in dense production, and are expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2018.
Tianfeng Securities said, according to the Chinese construction machinery association data, the domestic excavator industry proportion of CR10 increased from 71.81% in 2012 to 89.38% in 2016, leading to the industry concentration, it is recommended to grasp the strong opportunity.
China and Thai securities analysts said that in 2018, the sales of excavators will reach about 170 thousand, and the growth rate will be 20%-30%. The first quarter of 2018 is expected to exceed expectations. Infrastructure demand, renewal demand, environmental promotion, and competition pattern improvement are the main driving factors.
China and Thai securities believe that the construction machinery industry generally presents a trend of increasing market share concentration, leading enterprises to highlight the competitive advantage. In the medium and long term, it is expected that the excavator industry's leading performance in 2018 will continue to be better in 2019.
Market participants generally suggested that attention should be paid attention to the leading enterprises of Sany, and focus on the main business of the Hengli hydraulic. At the same time, the prosperity of other engineering machinery, such as concrete machinery, crane, and so on, to maintain high scenery, recommended XCMG.
