Affected by the epidemic, the rise of new infrastructure has become an important starting point for promoting economic growth. Affected by the investment in new infrastructure, the heavy truck market has achieved substantial returns in the first half of 2020, especially the construction vehicle market has achieved good results, and the entire project The machinery market has also benefited from it, but how long can this wave of dividends of the new infrastructure last?
On July 30, 2020, at the 2020 China Construction Machinery Elite Agents Hotspot Forum with the theme of "Post-epidemic era, how agents seek survival and change", Qi Jun, President of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, made the title " The theme sharing of the Trend Analysis of China's Construction Machinery Industry in 2020, from a macro perspective of the industry as a whole, analyzes the current status and development trend of the construction machinery market and provides a reference for industry professionals.
01
Review of the operation status of the construction machinery industry in 2019 and the first half of 2020
In 2019, China's construction machinery industry achieved revenue of 668.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, ranking in the forefront of the machinery manufacturing industry.
In 2019, the total revenue of 12 enterprise groups in the industry reached 396.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The total revenue of the 12 mainframe manufacturers accounted for 60% of the industry.
In the first half of 2020, the sales volume of the 12 main construction machinery products included in the statistics increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the export sales volume increased by 2.06% year-on-year.
From January to June this year, 12 enterprise groups in the industry achieved revenue of 202.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, and realized profits of 18 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year. The corporate profit margin reached 8.9%. The average profit of the 12 enterprise groups is 6% higher than the industry average.
02
The short-term and long-term impact of the epidemic on the construction machinery industry
In the first half of this year, according to the Association’s statistics, due to poor local funding, the overall national infrastructure operating rate is insufficient, and the overall construction machinery stock operating rate is not high. The new crown epidemic has brought short-term effects to the upstream and downstream of the construction machinery industry. Negative Effects.
Throughout the first half of the year, the overseas epidemic had little impact on the domestic supply chain. On the one hand, at the end of last year, the spare parts reserves of the OEMs were sufficient and could be maintained until the second quarter of this year. In the second quarter, the overseas supply chain system has basically returned to normal. From January to June, the overall export growth rate of the whole industry declined, but the export of excavators was recovering growth. Excavator exports increased by 17.8% from January to June.
In order to hedge the negative impact of the new crown pneumonia on the national economy, the government has increased infrastructure investment, which has effectively stimulated the demand for construction machinery. In the second quarter, China's construction machinery industry achieved contrarian growth.
Based on environmental protection policies and investment policies, Qi Jun has positive expectations for China's construction machinery market in the next five years.
In terms of environmental protection, in the context of the country’s increased environmental control of non-road mobile machinery, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the four-stage emission standards for non-road machinery will be introduced, urging high-emission old equipment to withdraw from the stock market. The relevant machinery manufacturing industry will strive for more buffer time for engine and main engine manufacturers in the communication process with the national environmental protection. It is expected that after the National IV standard technical route is released, engine companies will have an 18-month preparation period; on this basis, the OEM will reserve another 6-month buffer period.
In addition, based on the judgment of the normalization of the new crown epidemic, inward investment will become one of the main driving forces for economic growth.
Therefore, according to the "14th Five-Year Plan" of China's construction machinery industry, it is estimated that the average annual growth rate of the industry will reach 5% from 2021 to 2025.
03
Agency channel losses under the background of the growth of the excavator industry
With the rapid rebound of China's construction machinery industry after the epidemic, the production and sales of excavators have achieved higher than expected growth, but many excavator agents are facing losses, especially in the small excavation market. At the same time, such non-market competition behaviors and methods are affecting the medium and large mining markets, which will have a negative impact on the entire industry.
In this regard, host companies have also realized the seriousness of the problem, and host companies are actively taking measures. It is understood that the major OEMs have completed the profit rebate for agents in the first half of the year. The total rebate for individual companies has reached 2 billion yuan, and the subsidies for agents have been increased.
The growth of the excavator market in the future will definitely have a ceiling. Agents must hold the bottom line and do not enter a bottleneck period like the white goods industry.
04
Survival and development of agents in the post-epidemic era
Agents have reached the stage of preparing and exerting efforts in the aftermarket. The aftermarket is the main part of future profitability, even accounting for 80%. The growth of new machine sales is only the maintenance of the channel. Which agent can hold the old users in its hands and make a fuss on the stock market can guarantee the sustainable development in the next stage.
In terms of brand competition, individual brands will definitely withdraw from the market. With the decline in sales of new machines, the integration of many brand agency areas will accelerate in the future. Agents and OEMs are faced with two-way choices. Agents must put their own company’s production in the first place and identify which OEMs have development models. Sustainability.
The prevention and control of the epidemic will be the top priority of the work in the second half of this year. Without the health and safety of the employees of the agent, there will be no survival and development of the entire enterprise. Agents should start to deploy the aftermarket and increase the penetration rate of the aftermarket. Service to maintain the previous relationship with customers and maximize the core value of agent channels.
