The "four trillion" stimulus and the real estate leapfrog development detonated engineering demand, and the main construction machinery sales focus was concentrated around 2011. Infrastructure development led to a centralized demand for equipment: after the "four trillion plan" was proposed in November 2008, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in China was greatly increased, the growth rate of 2009/2010/2011 infrastructure investment completed up to 42%/18%/3.30%, and the total amount of investment completed in the year was 5.47/6.48/6.69 trillion yuan, with a total of 18 trillion and 640 billion yuan. The intensive construction of large infrastructure projects has formed a centralized demand for new equipment such as excavators, cranes, concrete pumps and road machinery, and directly drives the procurement of leaping equipment. Demand for real estate intensive construction equipment increased: in 2009-2011 years, the urbanization rate of our country jumped, from 46.59% to 51.27%, and the growth rate accelerated significantly. The process of urbanization accelerated the large-scale construction of real estate. The annual growth rate of fixed assets investment in real estate industry was up to 20.09%/33.63%/31.29% in 2009/2010/2011. Large scale real estate starts to drive the huge demand for earthwork, lifting and concrete projects, and further increase the sale of new machines for construction machinery. In 2011, the sales volume of domestic excavators / truck cranes / loaders reached 19.4/3.5/25.9 million, all at a record high.
Factor 1: different equipment itself is different from the period of Zhu La, updating demand and supporting industry boom. Before and after 2011, "artificial manufacturing" of most engineering machinery sales high point, the life of various kinds of equipment has a certain difference, the mean of the life of the excavator is about 8 years, the average life of the loader is about 9 years, the average life span of the crane is about 10 years, the average life span of the concrete pump car is over 10 years, and the span length span of the pavement machinery is long. Larger. We judge the update peak of this wheel excavator in 2018, which is estimated to be 17.0/15.0/12.0 million units in 2018/2019/2020 years, and the peak of loaders and cranes is in 2019. The sales volume of car cranes in 2018/2019/2020 is 2.65/2.95/2.90 10000 respectively, and the sales of loaders are 12/15/14 10000 respectively. The peak of car renewal is in 2020. It is expected that the sales volume of the concrete pump car is 4000/6000/8000 in 2018/2019/2020, the peak of the tower crane is in 2020, and the high point of different kinds of equipment is expected to form the wheel dynamic support for the boom cycle of the engineering machinery.
Factor two: the total demand for infrastructure and real estate is much higher than that of the previous round, and the application scene of construction machinery is constantly expanding, stimulating the quantity of equipment to keep hitting a new high. The base investment (2017) is 2.6 times as high as the last round (2011) and the real estate investment is 1.9 times more than the last round. The total amount of construction demand for the earthwork has been significantly increased, and higher demand is put forward for the total maintenance of the construction machinery. The obvious scissors gap and the total volume supplement become the important source of demand. Factor three: the current market share is healthy competition, and the demand release is relatively mild. During the boom cycle of the front wheel, major domestic engineering machinery faucets carried out a large scale of capital expenditure. In this round, the four leading capital expenditures of Sany, Xugong machinery, ZOOMLION and Liugong were not more than 700 million yuan in this round, for the last round of 1/3-1/10. In this cycle, most host plants have abandoned the last round of ultra low down payment (low to 0 payments), overlong accounts (up to 4 years) of radical sales policy, the proportion of down payment and account control generally have more stringent restrictions, we judge the current demand is not overoverdrawn. Factor four: exports provide additional increments to further expand aggregate demand. Along with the large-scale infrastructure and real estate construction of Southeast Asia, South Asia and Central Asia, the export volume of China's Excavator increased by 110.5% in the 1-6 month of 2018, and it is expected that the export of the excavator is expected to break through 15 thousand units in the whole year. Compared with the previous cycle of the previous round of boom, China's construction machinery faucets have completed the preliminary overseas layout, and the global operation ability is stronger and is expected to further benefit from the sales increment brought by overseas demand.
Investment logic: look at the boom cycle of the engineering machinery industry, with different equipment wheel support to provide effective guarantee for the profitability stability of the complete leading listed companies. Overseas expansion is expected to further improve the valuation stability, focusing on Sany (domestic engineering machinery, excavators, cranes, concrete machines) The equipment is complete, the global layout is perfect), Xugong machinery (the crane is the income and profit center, the boom period is relatively late, the performance is big), pay attention to ZOOMLION (crane and concrete machinery boom cycle, the performance increase still has space), Liu Gong (the loading machine height is relatively late, overseas layout initial Effective), continue to recommend the core of the domestic components Addie precision, Hengli hydraulic.
Risk hints: our logic is based on the overall stability of domestic downstream demand and the assumption that demand for overseas downstream increases. If domestic capital construction and real estate investment fall sharply (as compared with more than 15%) or a global trade war of large scope, it will have a greater inhibition on the normal renewal of equipment.
