Recently, China's Unicorn enterprises have been listed on the stock market, and have been stockpiles of food and grass for "capital cold winter". In the first half of 2018, domestic financing amounted to 2947, a decrease of 17.1% over the same period last year. Some people worry that investment is becoming cautious and critical, and it is not good news for starting a business. I think on the contrary, if the supply of cheap capital is in the past, for industrial investment, value investment, now must be the best opportunity.
One
"Cold winter" is not the case this year. In 2015, after China announced the "de leveraging" program, the sensitive market has changed in advance. However, excessive capital supply should not be normal. "Cold winter" is precisely the correction and adjustment of the market. It is a good thing to consider the future healthy development of some industries.
As Xu Xiaoping, founder of the real fund, said, in the field of angels, the impetuosity of the market has been "agitate" by a lot of the local tyrants, and professional investors have to increase their prices if they want to invest. The cold winter of capital will make many local tyrants who don't know business and lack professional ability quit, which is more conducive to professional investors to create the best service.
Is the capital really going into the cold winter? That may not be the case.
By the end of June 2018, the scale of private equity and venture capital in China reached nearly 8 trillion yuan, and reached a high point in history. The management scale of private equity investment FOF in China reached 1 trillion and 400 billion. Among them, there are 676 government guided funds and 1 trillion and 160 billion yuan in management capital. Another group of B2B internal data statistics is that in the first half of this year, 82 B2B providers accumulated 22 billion 600 million yuan of financing, which doubled in the same period last year.
On the one hand, private equity, venture capital fund "no money", hand hold a large number of capital to be put forward; on the one hand, a good project "no lack of money", the financing of high quality projects is not affected by cold winter, but more affirmation of capital. This imbalance is not so much a "capital shortage" as an "asset shortage", which top investment institutions never believe in. For investors, whether in 1998 or 2018, the cold market is often the best time to invest.
Two
Why is it the best time to invest in industry?
I think one of the most important reasons is the changes that are taking place in the economic field. The structural reform of supply side opened in China since 2015 has made the traditional industry into a deep transition channel. The government guiding industrial fund mentioned in the previous article is expected to combine the force with the market and reconfigure the market resources.
In another battlefield, the light assets and fast growth of the Internet have experienced 10 years of rapid development. In the traditional shopping, travel, payment, tourism and other industries, new economy and new driving force have been formed, but now the investment in this field is saturated and even congested. The new technology has quietly penetrated into the real industry.
IDG capital Xiong Xiaoge believes that "business in the past is mainly based on the to C (consumer) model, and in the future, upgrading the to B (enterprise) technical service is the key." Many small and medium-sized enterprises should develop and do some services for them. This will be an important development direction in the future.
Modern horse racing is most concerned about three things: racetrack, horse and rider. Investment is also suitable for the three rules. Whether the investment is successful or if the returns are large enough, almost all VC and PE will agree with the fact that these will ultimately be decided by the track. It means that if you choose the wrong industry, even if the entrepreneur's ambition is greater, the team is stronger, can not do hundreds of billions of dollars of business.
The traditional industry in transition is not short of scale, and every track is 100 billion or more. Take the construction machinery industry where the rental equipment is located as an example, this long industrial chain covers the upstream machinery manufacturing, the intermediary sales agent, and the downstream leasing, maintenance, maintenance, training and so on. Only the equipment rental market has reached trillions of levels.
"There are no successful enterprises, only enterprises of the times." The phrase Haier founder Zhang Ruimin is the best explanation for the relationship between business success and the macro situation. It means that an enterprise can be bigger and stronger, and the entrepreneur's diligence, intelligence and belief are necessary, but 99% depends on the potential energy of the industry, and the value of the industrial track is here.
Three
Another opportunity for industrial investment comes from the profound changes brought about by technology.
In particular, new technologies such as the Internet of things, large data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence are constantly breaking through and evolving. The traditional industries with high cost and low efficiency have the possibility of transformation and upgrading. The industry itself has a strong desire for new technology and the huge demand for the new model, which has been shown very well in the field of engineering equipment leasing. Obviously.
According to the professional report, the real industry is only 1% of efficiency, and its value is amazing. If the railway system is increased by 1% efficiency, it means that the industry will increase 150 billion yuan output value. If the aviation industry saves 1% of fuel, it means that enterprises can save 200 billion yuan. Alibaba's 3.5 billion items of medical information on its logistics platform are a larger online medical market than drug sales alone.
Compared with the fierce competition in the field of shopping e-commerce and sharing bicycles, there are still few decent vehicles on the broad track of the real industry. Among the top 100 Unicorn companies released in 2018, only one of the industrial toB areas was found. However, the steel trade market, which is up to 8 trillion yuan a year, has increased from 11 people to 1600 people in 2012, and at last only made 17 billion 500 million yuan trading volume. It can be imagined that the investment space of the industry is much.
Many people worry that the huge traditional industry will be the giant that industrial capital is difficult to awaken because of its solidified benefits and traditional mode.
Such worries are not unreasonable, but we also see more changes. The government is guiding the industrial fund to introduce capital, science and technology and human resources to the trillions of events. In the vertical subdivision of the industrial field, the industry fund for "long-term layout" will be the whole industry chain, and the upgrading of China's grassroots entrepreneurship to the elite is meant to be an experienced enterprise. Executives and industry experts will be able to cross the professional threshold of industrial investment.
I believe that industrial investment is entering a critical point of outbreak in terms of policy orientation, market demand, capital reserve, and new technology development.
