The construction machinery plate has been rising continuously. According to Tongda software, the construction machinery sector increased by 2.05%, 2.75% and 1.65% respectively in the last 3 trading days. Among them, the Dagang road machine is a three link board. Besides, the mountain lift shares, Liugong and flyover crane also have good performance.
On the news point of view, the executive meeting of the State Council has been held recently, which requires maintaining macro policy stability, insisting on not making "big water irrigation" strong stimulus, supporting the expansion of internal demand structure to promote the development of the real economy, and determining the measures to promote effective investment around the short board, the increase of strength and the benefit of the people's livelihood.
"In the first half of the year, the sales volume of the excavators is expected to exceed the market expectations, but the stock price of the leading enterprises deviates from the fundamentals, mainly in the background of tight credit, deleveraging, strict supervision and the uncertainty of Sino US trade war. The market is pessimistic about the macroeconomic expectations and the sustainability of the engineering machinery, and this year will be the peak of the industry cycle and therefore not far away. Overvalued, stock prices have fully reflected the pessimism of the market. Peng Yong, an analyst at finance and securities industry, said that the country's regular financial policy should be more active and robust, and a robust monetary policy needs to be tighten and moderate, to speed up the capital contribution of national financing guarantee funds, to adjust the financial policy and monetary policy to a positive direction, and to improve the investment in infrastructure construction in the second half of the year, and increase the investment in infrastructure. The rapid recovery will significantly boost domestic demand for excavators, especially small and medium-sized excavators, and is expected to drive sales in the second half of the year to exceed expectations.
Data show that 1-6 months this year, construction machinery sales data of various categories are also pretty eyed. Among them, 120123 sales of excavators, more than 50% year on year increase, the cumulative sales volume of loaders exceeded 75 thousand, bulldozers, planters, milling machines and other sales have increased significantly, and export sales increased more significantly.
At present, a number of construction machinery companies including Xugong machinery and Liugong have announced the first half performance notice. From the performance notice, all enterprises have achieved varying degrees of growth. At the same time, the word "profit table repair" and "gross profit margin" are frequently seen in the performance forecast of enterprises. For example, Xugong machinery issued the 2018 half year performance forecast in July 13th. The report period realized the net profit of 10.0-11.5 billion yuan, and a year-on-year increase of 81.72%-108.97%. The forecast data of the 2018 half year report on mountain and river intelligence showed that the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company was 277 million 660 thousand yuan to 319 million 729 thousand and 800 yuan in 1-6 months of 2018. 230% to 280%.
"The recovery of construction machinery industry is sustained, downstream demand such as municipal engineering and new rural construction is still relatively strong, and the performance of leading enterprises will continue to exceed expectations. Monetary and fiscal policy loosening expectations further led to improved marginal investment in infrastructure, construction machinery sector is expected to usher in the valuation repair market. It is estimated that in 2018, the total number of excavators in the whole industry is expected to reach more than 180 thousand sales units, and the growth rate will exceed 30%. The the Great Wall securities analyst, koji Creek, said.
Peng Yong further pointed out that leading construction machinery enterprises take the initiative to deal with historical burdens when demand is favorable, and the risks such as accounts receivable have been fully released. Unlike the previous round of aggressive sales model, this round of construction machinery enterprises more rational, pay more attention to the quality of sales, cash flow and asset quality is better. In the current cycle, the profitability of leading enterprises should be better, so there is still much room for flexibility in profit margins. "For the second half of the industry growth slowdown we feel that there is no need for excessive concern, although the growth of sales will be the next step, but not the industry turning point, but in a long period of time to maintain a stable growth of the new normal, income will gradually weaken the profit of leading enterprises."
