The wind blows from the Jugella cycle, and the mechanical boom is up. 2021 will be the return of the last round of the Jugella cycle. The prosperity of the machinery and equipment industry will be significantly improved, focusing on the demand for equipment driven by the growth of leaders in traditional fields and emerging fields. The epidemic has not substantially damaged the long-term economic growth during the financial crisis stage. After years of liquidation in the traditional manufacturing industry, the concentration of leading players has further increased, and the momentum and certainty of the high-tech industry have undergone new changes.
The current capital expenditure increase meets the conditions for replenishment, interest rates, liabilities, and profitability. The replenishment momentum is strong and the space is large; from the five dimensions of the current interest rate environment, manufacturing boom trends, entrepreneur confidence, overseas momentum, and domestic and foreign policy environments, the macro conditions for the boom of machinery and equipment are relatively sufficient; asset-liability restoration, The debt burden is reduced, and the necessary conditions for capital expenditure expansion are in place; continuous improvement in profitability is the core driving force for production expansion. From the perspective of the leading profit growth rate, the upward turning point of capital expenditure is 2020Q2.
The wind of capital expenditure is blowing in the eight primary industries: traditional cycle (chemical/mining/nonferrous/steel) and consumer (light industry/food and beverage/textile and clothing/automotive). From the perspective of ROIC and asset-liability ratio, building materials (photovoltaic glass), architectural decoration (professional engineering), electronics (semiconductor), national defense and military industry (aeronautical equipment, shipbuilding, communications (communication equipment) and other industries also have strong capital Spending momentum.
Track and individual stock recommendations: 1) Petrochemical and chemical equipment. Recommendation: Zhongmi Holdings/Boshi Co., Ltd./Zhongkong Technology/China Chemical. 2) Oil and gas exploitation equipment. Recommendation: Jereh shares. 3) Mining equipment. Recommendation: Zhengmei Machinery/Sany Heavy Industry/Zoomlion/Aidi Precision/Guomao/Construction Machinery. 4) Equipment for processing sand and gravel aggregates and scrap steel. Beneficiary subject: Zhejiang Mining Stock/Huahong Technology. 5) Consumer goods and service manufacturing equipment. Recommendation: Jack Stock/Meiya Optoelectronics; Beneficiary: Hongya CNC. 6) New energy vehicle batteries and electronic control equipment. Recommendation: Leading Intelligence/Hangke Technology/Inovance Technology. 7) Equipment in the aerospace field. Recommendation: Jonhon Optronic. 8) Other periodic field equipment. Recommendation: China Test Testing/China Metallurgical/Zhejiang Dingli; beneficiary subject: Baichu Electronics. 9) Other consumer equipment. Recommendation: Topband/Heertai/Xinyuan Micro; beneficiary target: Xinjie Electric/Jiechang Drive/Yizumi.
Fund selection: Based on the long-term high allocation of the machinery and equipment industry, ten funds are selected from two dimensions with strong investment and research capabilities in the machinery industry. Rongtong Industry Prosperity/Chuangjin Hexin Industrial Cycle Selection/Xinhua Optimal Dividend/CEIBS Advanced Manufacturing/HSBC Jinxin Intelligent Manufacturing Pioneer/Guangfa Excellent Enterprise Selection/Minsheng Plus Bank Urbanization/Hongde Strategic Transformation/Boshi Extended Growth Theme/Baoying Hongli income.
