1. Panoramic analysis of the industrial chain of the construction machinery manufacturing industry
Construction machinery is an important part of the equipment industry. In a nutshell, all mechanical equipment necessary for comprehensive mechanized construction projects required for earth and stone construction projects, road construction and maintenance, mobile crane loading and unloading operations, and various construction projects are called engineering machinery.
With the stimulus of increasing infrastructure investment, the demand for construction machinery has increased significantly, and it has also promoted the continuous development of my country's excellent engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises in the direction of internationalization, scale and integration. my country has become a world construction machinery manufacturing country.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the construction machinery industry mainly provides raw materials and parts for the manufacture of construction machinery products, the motor industry and the parts manufacturing industry, such as steel for construction machinery, internal combustion engines, hydraulic systems, bearings, tires, etc. .
The midstream includes different types of construction machinery manufacturing companies such as excavators, cranes, road rollers, and bulldozers;
The downstream are mainly industries that have a demand for wires and cables, such as infrastructure construction, real estate, mine excavation, cement, and rural construction.
2. Analysis of the development status of the construction machinery industry: China's construction machinery manufacturing industry is booming
——Global level: The proportion of China's construction machinery manufacturing sales is increasing year by year
Starting from the end of 2019, the global construction machinery market has entered a downward phase from the highest point of this cycle, and demand in mature markets in Europe, America and Japan fluctuates; at the same time, China's construction machinery industry continues to maintain rapid development. With the continuous upgrading and transformation of the industry, the continuous expansion of the high-end market, the strengthening of innovation capabilities, and the in-depth popularization and application of intelligent, digital, and information technology, Chinese construction machinery manufacturers have maintained a strong growth momentum and further improved their operational quality.
From 2018 to 2019, the industry peaked at more than 1.1 million units. According to a report by OffHighway Research, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, it will drop to 891,000 units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 19%.
According to the 2020 ranking of the top 50 global construction machinery manufacturers published by the British KHL Group's "International Construction" magazine, global construction equipment sales in 2019 reached 202.7 billion U.S. dollars, exceeding 200 billion U.S. dollars for the first time; and 2018 An increase of 10% compared to the year.
Although global construction equipment sales hit a record high in 2019, the growth rate is slowing. According to data from YellowTable, 2017 has increased by 25.5% compared to 2016, and the growth rate in 2018 was 13.5%. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global sales will drop sharply in 2020. Judging from the changes in the top ten, Chinese companies have become the focus. XCMG, Sany and Zoomlion all rose. As Zoomlion squeezed into the top 10, Chinese companies occupied 3 seats in the top 10.
2) Domestic level: Although affected by the epidemic in 2020, the industry as a whole is thriving
——Total revenue of China's construction machinery industry may exceed 700 billion yuan in 2020
In 2019, after five years of low development and rapid recovery and growth from 2017 to 2018, the construction machinery industry ushered in a stable development in 2019, facing a more complex international environment and greater downward pressure on the domestic economy. With the help of stable and positive macroeconomics and sustained and stable investment in fixed assets, the construction machinery industry has further demonstrated the results of industry transformation and upgrading. The accelerated renewal of second-hand equipment in the market and the positive effects of air pollution prevention and environmental protection policies on the market have been shown. The construction of "One Road" has stimulated export growth, and under the superimposed influence of many factors such as the promotion and application of new technologies and methods in construction and construction, the construction machinery market has reproduced rapid growth.
According to statistics collected by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, after deducting incomparable factors, repeated data, and non-construction machinery industry operating income, the entire industry achieved operating income of 668.1 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 12% over 2018.
According to the data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association in September 2020, in the first half of 2020, 12 key construction machinery companies across the country completed sales revenue of 235.6 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year; the industry revenue growth rate is expected to reach 7% in 2020 To 8%. According to the association's relevant data and development status, forward-looking forecasts that the total revenue of my country's construction machinery industry will reach about 714.9 billion yuan in 2020.
Note: The revenue growth rate in 2004 was 11.7%.
(2) China's excavator sales in 2020 will exceed 300,000 units
Sales of 15,462 truck-mounted cranes in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, sales of 2,290 crawler cranes, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, sales of 123,000 loaders, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%; sales of 5,807 bulldozers, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%, sales of roads 16,978 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.61%, sales of 4348 motor graders, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and sales of 608,300 forklifts, a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.
According to industry statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from January to December 2020, a total of 327,605 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 39%; of which, 292,864 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%; and 34,741 were exported, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%.
From January to December 2020, a total of 131,176 loaders of various types were sold, an increase of 6.12% year-on-year. Among them: 122,969 loaders of 3 tons and above were sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%. The total sales volume in the domestic market was 106,572 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.63%; the export sales volume was 24,604 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.55%.
(3) In 2020, China's construction machinery import and export trade volume will be nearly 25 billion U.S. dollars
According to customs data, China's construction machinery import and export trade volume reached 24.722 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, the import value reached 3.753 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.05% year-on-year; the export value reached 20.969 billion U.S. dollars, down 13.6% year-on-year, and the trade surplus reached 17.216 billion U.S. dollars.
From 2017 to 2019, my country exported the largest number of forklifts, far exceeding other types of construction machinery and equipment. In the first half of 2020, my country's total export of complete machines was 5.993 billion US dollars, down 20.5% year-on-year, accounting for 61% of total exports; parts exports were 3.797 billion US dollars, down 15.8% year-on-year, accounting for 39% of total exports.
The decrease in exports from January to June mainly included parts, forklifts, loaders, tunnel boring machines and off-highway dump trucks. The main increase in export value are: crawler excavators, all-terrain truck cranes of more than 100 tons, pavers and asphalt mixing equipment, etc.
Note: The number of forklifts in 2020 is the export value of Q1 in 2020.
(4) The number of newly established companies in 2020 will increase by 12.51% compared to the whole of 2019
According to the data of the company Chamao, during the twelve years from 2000 to 2012, the number of newly established enterprises in China's construction machinery manufacturing industry remained within the range of 20,000 to 100,000; since 2013, China's construction machinery manufacturing industry The newly established enterprises in the industry have shown a significant upward trend. In 2020, the number of newly established enterprises in China's construction machinery manufacturing industry is 1.196 million, an increase of 12.51% from the 1.063 million in 2019. On the whole, the industry is showing a prosperous situation.
(5) China's construction machinery will enter the era of stock
The possession of construction machinery is huge, and future demand will enter the era of renewal. Under the trend of low-speed economic growth and superimposed transformation and upgrading, there will be less room for new demand in the future. Under the new economic normal, construction machinery will enter the era of inventory. According to Leading Industry Research, the number of major types of construction machinery in China in 2019 reached 8.86 million units.
3. Analysis of the competition pattern of China's construction machinery market: the industry concentration remains high
——Product level: Excavator sales accounted for 57.84%
my country has a wide variety of construction machinery and is one of the countries with the most complete product categories and product varieties in the world. It has 20 categories, 109 groups, 450 models, 1090 series, and tens of thousands of models of product equipment. It is precisely because of my country's complete categories of construction machinery and outstanding advantages of serialization and complete sets, it provides construction machinery equipment guarantee for the country's economic construction.
From the perspective of market structure, the four commonly used engineering equipment of excavators, cranes, road rollers and bulldozers account for most of the shares in the construction equipment market in my country. Among them, excavators are the star products in construction machinery and occupy the absolute mainstream position in the market. , Sales in 2019 accounted for 57.84%; followed by loaders, accounting for 30.34%.
2) Regional level: Shandong and Jiangsu have become industrial clusters
According to data from Qichamao, the number of newly established enterprises in China's construction machinery manufacturing industry is far ahead of other provinces in Shandong (1.248 million) and Jiangsu (1.107 million), followed by Zhejiang (578,000) , Guangdong Province (572,000 companies) and Beijing (459,000 companies).
3) Enterprise level: Sany Heavy Industry's market share has remained the first for many years
The market competition pattern of my country's construction machinery industry can be roughly divided into four echelons. Due to the economies of scale in the construction machinery industry, after more than 60 years of development, four giant companies have emerged. Sany, Liugong, Xugong Machinery and Zoomlion have revenues of more than 10 billion. Among them, Sany and Xugong Machinery revenue is more than 40 billion yuan, products are distributed in various sub-fields, the technology level is leading, and many products have reached the international leading level;
The second echelon is the potential force of my country's construction machinery industry. Under the background of intelligent manufacturing, the intelligentization of construction machinery is an opportunity for the development of these enterprises. The revenue scale is between 4-10 billion and has a certain degree of popularity. It has certain leading advantages in different fields.
The third tier is companies with revenues of 100 to 1 billion. Such companies are small in scale, have low product R&D investment, and have a certain reputation in a certain segment, such as Aili Precision, XGMA, etc.; The fourth echelon consists of many small and medium-sized enterprises, with high product homogeneity and low technical content, relying on price advantages to seize the middle and low-end product market.
According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the number of enterprises with excavator business above designated size is the largest, up to 25; followed by loaders and road rollers, each of which is owned by 22 enterprises. The lifting platform and bulldozer are only owned by 10 enterprises above the designated size.
In terms of market share, Sany's market share increased from 5.11% in 2015 to 11.33% in 2019, which increased its market share by 6.22%; followed by Xugong Group, with its market share from 3.65% in 2015 to 8.86% in 2019 , Which increased its market share by 5.21%.
From the perspective of concentration, from 2015 to 2019, the concentration of CR3 ranges from 13.3% to 26.67%, and the concentration of CR9 ranges from 17.22% to 33.99%.
Guided by China Construction Machinery Industry Association and National Construction Machinery Quality Supervision and Inspection Center, Xuzhou Liugong's products occupy 10 seats in the "2020 China Construction Machinery Annual Product TOP50" list sponsored by "Construction Machinery and Maintenance" magazine, followed by Zoomlion occupies 6 seats; Sany Heavy Industry occupies 5 seats.
4. Forecast of the development prospects of China's construction machinery industry: "5G + construction machinery" helps domestic construction machinery companies go international
With the rapid development of a new generation of information technology, as an important part of the traditional manufacturing industry, the construction machinery industry also urgently needs to transform to digital, networked, and intelligent, and actively integrate the latest information and communication technology applications to meet the broader needs of the market lay the foundation.
The integration and development of 5G technology and construction machinery has formed a positive momentum. The advantages of 5G's low latency, large bandwidth, and wide connection make the automatic driving and remote driving of construction machinery a reality, so as to make the operation more precise and minimize human interaction. The communication between devices is delayed, which improves operation efficiency and safety.
At the Mobile World Congress in 2019, the first 5G remote control excavator jointly built by Sany, Huawei, and Yuexin Intelligent was officially unveiled and announced to be put into use; in the same year, Guangxi Liugong Group Co., Ltd. revealed that China Mobile and China Unicom 5G workstations have been established in the company's R&D center.
Construction machinery companies are increasingly trying to apply 5G technology to the equipment R&D and commercialization market, which means that the era of intelligent construction machinery will accelerate. As the application of "5G + construction machinery" is gradually on the right track, it is believed that the development and promotion of intelligent construction machinery products will achieve more significant results.
Looking forward to 2020, the China Construction Machinery Industry Association predicts that the domestic construction machinery market demand will grow steadily. Judging from the current international situation of the new crown epidemic, the export of construction machinery will be under greater pressure this year, and greater efforts are needed to maintain growth. In 2021, the market demand for construction machinery will maintain steady development, and new and updated market demand will play a role together.
According to the forecast of Off-Highway Research, China's construction machinery market will experience a cyclical decline in 2021-2023, but it is not expected to be as severe as the decline in 2012-2016. Therefore, based on historical data, forward-looking forecasts that the operating income of China's construction machinery manufacturing industry will reach about 737.9 billion yuan in 2025.
