According to the data released by people's information on February 15, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose for five consecutive trading days after the Spring Festival, and the average price exceeded 400000 yuan / ton on February 14. Compared with the average price of 55000 yuan at the beginning of 2021, the price of battery lithium carbonate soared by 645%, an increase of more than 6 times.
Experts believe that the factors driving the soaring price of lithium salt are the serious imbalance between supply and demand. On the one hand, the reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand are the continuous rise in the sales volume of new energy vehicles, the logistics outage during the Spring Festival, the impact of the epidemic and other factors, so manufacturers actively stock lithium resources. On the other hand, due to the insufficient development of lithium ore and the serious overdraft of lithium carbonate inventory from 2020 to 2021, the imbalance between supply and demand led to a further rise in prices.
Insiders said that under the background of the continuous rise of lithium salt prices, listed companies have accelerated the development of lithium resources since this year. The demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises is still increasing. With the increase of operating rate, the demand continues to rise. It is expected that the price of battery grade lithium carbonate will maintain an upward trend.
Prices continued to rise
According to the data of business agency, on February 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.55%, reaching 400000 yuan / ton to 402000 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate accelerated upward, rising by more than 5000 yuan / ton for five consecutive trading days.
Baichuan Yingfu expects that from February 5 to February 11, the domestic output of lithium carbonate is about 3807 tons. Some manufacturers enter the maintenance stage, the output is reduced, and there is no large shipment on the market. At present, most manufacturers maintain their old customers, and there is no redundant supply, so the tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate.
Meanwhile, inventories continued to decline. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, from February 5 to February 11, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory was 4919 tons, down 0.22% from the previous week.
Upstream raw material prices also continued to rise. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the average price of spodumene concentrate reached US $2635 / ton on February 14. CITIC Securities expects the price of spodumene concentrate to exceed US $3000 / ton in the first half of the year. Previously, Australian lithium miner allkem expected the price of lithium carbonate to rise by 80% in the first half of the year.
Some market analysts believe that although the current shortage of lithium carbonate in the market has eased slightly, there is still a supply gap of about 15%, which is also the reason why the price of lithium carbonate is still rising after the Spring Festival. Considering that the demand for replenishment by enterprises is still in February and March, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise due to shortage.
Previously, domestic securities companies expected that battery grade lithium carbonate would rise to a high of 500000 yuan / ton.
The performance of lithium mining company is bright
The price rise of lithium salt also helped the performance growth of lithium mining companies. According to the data, among the 21 lithium concept stock companies that have disclosed the performance forecast or express report in 2021, 17 have increased in advance and 4 have reversed their losses.
Ganfeng lithium is expected to realize a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 368.45% - 436.76%. For the reasons for the performance growth, Ganfeng lithium said that in 2021, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industry developed rapidly, the demand for lithium salt from downstream customers increased strongly, the production and sales volume of lithium salt products increased and the price rose, and the new projects in the lithium battery sector of the company were put into operation and the production capacity was gradually released.
China mineral resources is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 500 million to RMB 560 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 186.92% - 221.35%. China Mineral Resources said that the company's 25000 ton lithium salt production line was put into operation in August 2021, and the sales of battery grade lithium hydroxide products were realized in the fourth quarter of 2021, which made a certain contribution to the company's annual performance.
Among the companies to turn losses, Tianqi lithium is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.8 billion yuan to 2.4 billion yuan in 2021. Tibet Mining is expected to realize a net profit of 110 million yuan to 165 million yuan in 2021. Tibet Mining said that in 2021, the company focused on the improvement of management system and production and operation, fully grasped the pulse of the market, firmly grasped the rising trend of lithium salt market, increased the sales of products (lithium salt products and chromite), and the sales gross profit increased significantly.
CITIC Securities pointed out that the rapid rise of lithium price in 2021 triggered concerns about resource supply and cost control in the downstream of the industrial chain. Integrated lithium producers with mining resources also have the advantages of supply and low cost. In the future, the position of the industrial chain will be strengthened, and the profits of the industrial chain will gradually focus on it, fully benefiting from the rise of lithium price
Active layout of listed companies
Experts pointed out that the price rise of lithium salt further promoted the production and expansion of listed companies.
On January 24, the official website of Zijin Mining disclosed that katamba mining, a joint venture between the company and Congo national mining development company, recently held a shareholders' meeting to start the first lithium exploration project of Zijin mining. Zijin Mining disclosed that the lithium mineralization trend of Manono lithium pegmatite extends more than 13 kilometers, with a thickness of 20m-230m, and the resource reserve of lithium oxide reaches 8.78 million tons.
On January 26, Zijin Mining announced that as of the date of the announcement, the general meeting of shareholders of new lithium company had approved the acquisition transaction, the approval or filing procedures of domestic and foreign regulatory authorities required for the acquisition of equity of new lithium company had been completed, and the EIA permit for the mining phase of phase I of 3q project had been approved. The acquisition was delivered on January 25, 2022 Toronto time. After the completion of the delivery, the company holds 100% equity of Xinli company. The first phase of 3q project will be designed to produce 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate per year according to the feasibility study scheme. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023, using the precipitation method as the main process.
On the evening of February 8, China Mineral Resources announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong China mineral rare, plans to acquire 100% equity of AFMIN and 100% equity of amzim100 jointly held by AMMS and Samm for us $180 million. AFMIN and amzim, the subject of the transaction, jointly hold 74% of the equity of bikita company. The main asset of bikita company is the bikita lithium project in Zimbabwe.
China mineral resources previously disclosed that the company's lithium fluoride products are in full production and sales. With the completion of the technical transformation project of expanding lithium fluoride to 6000 tons by the end of 2021, the company will fully release its existing production capacity and produce according to the market demand.
Ningde times official micro disclosed on February 14 that recently, Sichuan times new energy resources Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Ningde times, signed a joint venture agreement with Ganzi investment group, Yibin Sanjiang Huida company and Sichuan Tianfu Mining Company in Chengdu. According to the agreement, all parties will accelerate the exploration and development of lithium resources in the province, increase the supply of lithium resources, promote comprehensive utilization in a scientific and orderly manner, promote the coordinated development of the whole industrial chain of new energy, and provide important support for the development of trillion power battery industry in Sichuan Province.
Lithium supply will remain tight in the short term
According to the data of the passenger Federation, in 2021, the global sales volume of narrow new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.23 million, a year-on-year increase of 118%, and the world share of China's new energy passenger vehicles reached 53%. In addition, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger Federation, predicted that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was originally expected to be 4.8 million in 2022, which should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million at present, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles should reach about 25%. The number of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
In the view of insiders, in the short term, the mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources and the tight supply of power batteries around the world will be the biggest obstacle to the development of new energy vehicles. Although almost all power battery plants are expanding production and expansion, there is still a question mark whether they can meet the downstream demand in a short time.
"The mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources is the main theme in the next two years. During this period, lithium prices will continue to rise, and the future market belongs to enterprises with resources to ensure production". Insiders said. This also means that in the short term, the tight supply of lithium resources in the new energy vehicle industry will not change significantly in the short term.
