According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from 2011 to 2020, the sales volume of small excavators (Note: the statistics of the association are divided by < 18.5t) increased from 82000 to 177000, realizing a blowout growth; The proportion in total sales increased from 42.41% to 54.07%, of which the peak in 2015-2016 was about 65.00%. In 2021, affected by the epidemic situation, the price rise of bulk raw materials, the "double limit" and other adverse factors, the sales volume of small excavation was 163000 units, although it decreased by 7.99% year-on-year and the proportion decreased to 47.55%, it can still be regarded as a "harvest year" of sales.
From rising to falling, the small excavation market showed fatigue
The monthly sales trend of small excavators in 2021 is almost consistent with the total sales of excavators: the sales volume broke out in an all-round way from January to March, with a year-on-year high profile of more than 45%, including a year-on-year increase of 221.60% in February to 14531 sets; In March, it set a new monthly sales record with a peak of 44368 units. However, since April, the "rise" trend has stopped abruptly, and the sales volume has decreased for nine consecutive months year-on-year. Except for 6.30% in April, the rest are hovering in the range of 20.00% ~ 50.00%. From the total sales volume of small excavation in 2017-2021 in Figure 2, after the adjustment of the previous cycle, the sales volume of small excavation has been rising from 2016 and 2017, reaching 177149 units in 2020, reaching the top of this cycle, and ending the growth trend with a slight decline of 7.99% in 2021.
In 2009, the market share of domestic excavator brands was only 24%; By 2021, only two leading enterprises Sany and XCMG had supported half of the excavator sales. The market share of foreign brands in China has gradually given way to Chinese brands. Small excavation is the "axis" and carries the process of market reconstruction. Among the manufacturers whose market share has steadily increased in recent years, all have performed well in the field of small and micro excavation. For example, Sany sy75c contributed more than 12000 small excavation sales (including sy75c Pro) in 2021, accounting for 7.54% of the total sales of small excavation in the whole year; Clg906e is the top seller of Liugong xiaodig in 2021, and its sales volume is close to 9000 units.
Combined with China's national conditions, domestic brands have much more price advantages. The smaller the machine, the greater the price difference. For ordinary individual users, buying small and micro excavation pays more attention to cost performance and cost recovery time, while the price of small excavation of foreign brands of the same ton is about 30% higher than that of domestic brands, which naturally discourages ordinary individual users.
In the post market era, can xiaodig achieve double growth of sales and profits
Throughout the year, Xiaobian noticed an interesting phenomenon: in the first half of 2021, in addition to Sany sy75c pro, Liugong clg906f-e (electric excavator) and xe17u launched by XCMG at the global micro excavation conference in October, there were few new models of small excavation, which obviously did not match the rhythm of 160000 + sales in the industry for two consecutive years. I do not know whether this is the case, or whether the enterprise "kept a low profile" and did not publicize it, hiding some "colored eggs"?
Let's look at another indisputable fact: since the second half of 2019, the negative gross profit of each small dig in sales of agents has reached 50000 ~ 80000 yuan. Even if the share rebate and other bonuses given by the manufacturer are included, the loss of each machine is mostly more than 20000 yuan. Therefore, when Xiaobian communicated with people in the industry about the topic of small excavation, he heard more than once that "there is basically no head of small excavation!" "Little dig loves who sells who sells. We don't want to sell!" It is not surprising that we have no time to take into account the new products after waiting for helpless feedback.
Small dig is an excellent cash flow strategic product. Good market performance will bring considerable working capital to the enterprise. However, in recent years, extreme credit sales models such as "low down payment and zero down payment" have become increasingly fierce, resulting in market disorder and sharp decline in market concentration. What's worse, the Zhongda mining market is also facing or will inevitably face the test of "price war". From the change of the proportion of small mining sales in 2017-2021 in Figure 3, the decline of the proportion of small mining sales may be one of the signals that the war spread to the Zhongda mining market.
As Chang Yudong, deputy general manager and service director of Shandong Lingong marketing company, once mentioned: before 2000, almost every agent had huge profits; Over time, especially after the "four trillion" stimulus in 2008, although the annual market sales volume continues to increase, the price and profit of products have been declining. By 2019, the profit of agent sales is almost zero, and even needs to be "inverted"; In 2020, the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises will also basically tend to zero; In 2021, even the price of large-scale excavation is also declining rapidly, and the market environment is further deteriorated.
For agents, since the "pre market" does not make money, can the "post market" make a difference? The answer is: although it is difficult, it is not impossible. At present, the absorption rate of domestic brand agents (the ratio between the profits generated except the sales of new machines and the overall cost of the company) is about 20% ~ 30%, while the absorption rate of some agents of foreign brands such as Caterpillar and Komatsu can reach 80% or more, indicating that the value of the post market has always existed. However, to give full play to the real value of the post market, our business model may need to undergo a major change. How did it change? We need to deeply cultivate the industry, grasp the law and discuss it carefully.
With the recent acceleration of infrastructure construction, the domestic excavator market is expected to pick up
Since the beginning of the year, the construction situation has improved. According to the China Securities News, from January 4 to 6 alone, major projects were started in batches, and the total investment of major projects announced exceeded 3 trillion yuan.
On January 4, the mobilization meeting of the first batch of major projects in Anhui Province in 2022 was held in Hefei, involving 731 major projects with a total investment of 376.06 billion yuan, involving 12 industries such as strategic emerging industries, transportation and social undertakings.
On the same day (January 4), the list of key construction projects in Hebei Province in 2022 issued by Hebei Province made it clear that 695 key construction projects were arranged in 2022, with a total investment of 1.12 trillion yuan, and it is expected to complete an investment of more than 250 billion yuan during the year. On January 5, 358 major projects in Zhejiang Province were started, with a total investment of 638.6 billion yuan.
On January 6, the first batch of major projects in Shanghai's five new towns started in 2022, with a total of 40 projects with a total investment of 132.82 billion yuan, involving high-end industries, science and innovation, infrastructure, major livelihood and other fields.
On the same day (January 6), the first batch of centralized commencement ceremony of Hainan free trade port construction project in 2022 was held in yazhouwan science and Technology City, Sanya City. 142 projects were started this time, with a total investment of 37.3 billion yuan.
At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 to all localities in advance. Compared with the issuance of new special bonds in March 2021, the issuance time of new special bonds in 2022 is significantly ahead of schedule.
Strong overseas demand for small and micro excavation
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the export volume of excavators has continued to double year-on-year since April 21. Compared with the calm second quarter after the popularity of the domestic market in the first quarter, it can be described as a "double day of ice and fire".
Behind the booming export of excavators, the surge in demand for micro excavation is a factor that can not be ignored. On the one hand, the overseas epidemic continues to recur. As a "recreational activity" at home, repairing the garden and house is undoubtedly a good choice for overseas users. Micro excavation has become the first choice for these users because of flexibility, applicability and other factors. On the other hand, domestic host enterprises have made localized customization and adaptability improvement on export micro excavation for the European and American market. The overall design is more suitable for the body shape of European and American users. Some enterprises have upgraded the export micro excavation control system automatically, which is more suitable for household use.
In addition, more personalized customization also makes domestic micro excavation popular with overseas users. Among them, the appearance color customization is also widely praised in the overseas market. The person in charge of the international market of an enterprise said that American consumers love white, Russian consumers favor green, while Indian users mostly customize white and yellow, "Capable and good-looking" is also the key to making domestic micro mining popular overseas.
The popularity of micro excavation overseas is undoubtedly a happy thing. Of course, we should also look at this problem rationally. After all, the surge of micro excavation overseas orders also makes some domestic production enterprises face the situation of insufficient production capacity. If we blindly build new plants and expand production capacity, after overseas demand returns to rationality, It is believed that the operation and maintenance of the newly-built plant and the proper disposal of the temporarily increased production line workers will also give enterprises a headache.
Of course, it is not difficult to see from the statistical data and trends that the demand for micro excavation will maintain a high level in the short term. The second parent, a member of the iron arm user group of China Construction machinery trade network, said that although small and medium-sized excavation is popular at present, micro excavation is more suitable for some special working conditions with its flexibility, and the market ownership is not saturated, so there is still a lot of demand space.
