"The machinery industry has taken new steps at the beginning of the 14th five year plan." On February 22, China Machinery Industry Federation held an information conference. Chen Bin, executive vice president of the Federation, introduced the economic operation of machinery industry in 2021 to the media. Despite the impact of various difficulties such as the spread of the epidemic, the shortage of chips, the rising price of raw materials and the shortage of power supply, the economic operation of the machinery industry was generally stable in 2021, showing a "high before low" trend, and the growth of the main economic indicators of the year exceeded expectations.
Looking forward to 2022, Chen Bin believes that China's economy will gradually return to normal operation. Although the external environment is more complex and severe and there is some pressure on domestic development, the overall machinery industry is still expected to achieve stable development. Among them, the growth rate of industrial added value and operating revenue is expected to reach about 5.5%, the overall profit level is the same as that in 2021, and the import and export trade remains stable on the whole.
Double digit growth in efficiency indicators and record high foreign trade
Chen Bin first summarized several major features in the economic operation of machinery industry in 2021:
Industrial added value achieved rapid growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 10% year-on-year, 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period; The average growth rate in the two years was 8%, 1.9 and 1.4 percentage points higher than that of national industry and manufacturing. Among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the added value of general equipment, special equipment, automobile, electrical machinery, equipment and instruments manufacturing industry increased by 12.4%, 12.6%, 5.5%, 16.8% and 12% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 8.7%, 9.4%, 6%, 12.8% and 7.6% respectively.
The output of more than 70% of products increased. Among the 121 Main products monitored by the machinery industry in 2021, there were 94 products with cumulative year-on-year growth, accounting for 77.7%; There were 27 kinds of products whose output decreased year-on-year, accounting for 22.3%. Among them, the annual output of special packaging equipment, metal containers and other products continued to increase significantly; Machine tool products showed a restorative growth. The output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 29.2% and the output of industrial robots increased by nearly 45%; The production of agricultural machinery and engineering machinery products has become more and more stable, and the growth rate has slowed down. The output growth rate of medium-sized tractors, small tractors and excavators has fallen back to single digits; The annual production and sales volume of automobiles increased after three consecutive years of year-on-year decline. In particular, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a record high. The annual production and sales volume were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times.
The benefit index achieved double-digit growth. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of machinery industry, the operating revenue in 2019 was 20.79 trillion yuan, an average increase of 20.9% year-on-year; The total profit was 1.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.64%, an increase of 23.25% over 2019, and an average increase of 11% over the two years. However, compared with the national industry, the growth rate of operating revenue and total profit of the machinery industry in 2021 was 3.78 and 22.69 percentage points lower than that of the national industry respectively; The average growth rate in the two years was 0.2 percentage points higher in operating income and 7.2 percentage points lower in total profit.
Investment in fixed assets was basically stable. Although the recovery of fixed asset investment in machinery industry in 2021 was not as expected, it remained stable on the whole. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry in the whole year, the fixed asset investment in general equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and instrument manufacturing increased by 9.8%, 24.3%, 23.3% and 12% respectively year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 1.3%, 10.2%, 6.7% and 2% respectively; The investment in automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years was 8.2%.
The operation of sub industries is generally good. In 2021, the operation situation of 14 sub industries of the machinery industry is generally good. In the whole year, the operating revenue of 14 sub industries increased year-on-year, of which other civil machinery, robot and intelligent manufacturing, machine tool and electrical appliance industries increased by more than 25%. In terms of profits, the construction machinery industry showed a year-on-year decline on the basis of the high base of the previous year; The profits of the other 13 sub industries increased year-on-year, but there was differentiation. The profits of machine tools and other civil machinery industries increased by more than 60%, while the profits of petrochemical general, heavy mining, automobile, internal combustion engine and other industries increased by less than 3%.
Foreign trade hit a record high. Thanks to the effective prevention and control of domestic epidemic and the rapid recovery of production order, machinery enterprises take the initiative to seize the first opportunity in the international market. In 2021, the foreign trade of machinery industry continued to grow rapidly, and the total import and export volume of the whole year reached US $1.04 trillion, breaking the US $1 trillion mark for the first time. Among them, the total export volume was 676.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, a record high; The total import volume was 362.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; The trade surplus reached US $314.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 168%, a record high.
The operation of the industry is in the boom range. In 2021, the prosperity index of machinery industry was always above the critical value. At the beginning of the year, based on the low base of the previous year, the prosperity index once rose to 231.18, and then fell month by month. In December at the end of the year, the prosperity index of machinery industry was 112.57, which was a low point in the year, but it was still significantly higher than the critical value and in the boom range.
Make good use of favorable factors to resolve difficulties and pressures and promote the stable growth of the industry
Referring to the development trend of the industry in 2022, Chen Bin believes that the central economic work conference has defined the general tone of "stabilizing the word and seeking progress in stability". Relevant government departments have successively issued many policies and measures to stabilize the operation of the industrial economy, expand domestic demand, promote consumption and moderately advance infrastructure investment. At the same time, major strategies and Major projects and major projects have been started one after another, providing a good macroeconomic foundation and stable and good market demand for the machinery industry. In addition, the adverse factors affecting the economic operation of the industry last year, such as the high price of raw materials, the tight supply of coal and electricity, and the shortage of chip supply, will be alleviated and improved in 2022. These favorable factors will promote the stable growth of the industry.
Covid-19 also pointed out that the international economic situation in 2022 is increasingly perplexing, and the uncertainty of the new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to impact the recovery of the world economy. The fluctuation of international capital market, the high price of bulk commodities, the poor logistics of international trade and trade, and the tightening of global supply chain still make the foreign trade environment of machinery industry more severe. The contraction of total demand in the domestic market, unstable market expectations and the weakening growth momentum of consumption and investment all pose great challenges to the stable growth of the industry.
According to the analysis, Chen Bin predicted the trend of the main sub industries of the machinery industry in 2022, and believed that the overall trend would be stable and good, and there were some differences among different sub industries.
The automobile industry will be less affected by the shortage of chips, but the impact of shrinking market demand and weakening expectation still exists. The annual growth rate of automobile production and sales is expected to be about 6%; New energy vehicles will continue to grow, with a growth rate higher than that of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.
The operation pressure of the electrical and electrical industry is great, the power supply structure of the power industry will change significantly, and the supply structure of power generation equipment will be adjusted accordingly. The supply of wind power and photovoltaic will be further strengthened, and the traditional coal-fired power equipment will be further strictly controlled. However, the large and wide range of products such as medium and low voltage switches, wires and cables will continue to maintain a high growth rate, and the growth rate of annual operating revenue is expected to be about 5% The profit growth rate is lower than that of operating revenue.
The economic operation of the petrochemical general equipment industry is greatly affected by the changes of international oil prices. Driven by the overall high level of international crude oil prices, it will show stable growth. There are many uncertain factors in the international oil market this year, but it is generally believed that the average price of crude oil will be higher than last year. It is expected that the petrochemical general equipment industry will operate steadily and improve throughout the year, and the growth rate of operating revenue will be about 6%.
The agricultural machinery industry is expected to maintain a good development trend throughout the year driven by factors such as the upgrading of existing equipment and the switching of national four emission at the end of the year.
Driven by the equipment transformation and upgrading of user industries such as steel and coal, the heavy mining equipment industry will maintain a stable operation throughout the year, but the growth rate is lower than that of the previous year.
The construction machinery industry has been rising for many years, with a high comparative base and great downward pressure. However, the stable development direction of the industry has not changed, and the annual operating revenue is expected to increase by 5% - 8%.
According to comprehensive analysis, the operation of the machinery industry is expected to achieve steady growth in 2022, the growth rate of industrial added value and operating revenue is expected to reach about 5.5%, the overall profit level is the same as that of the previous year, and the import and export trade remains stable on the whole.
Chen Bin hopes that the whole industry will adhere to the working tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, carry forward the spirit of hard work, take the initiative to meet opportunities and challenges, strive to achieve stable and healthy development of the industry, and meet the victory of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China with excellent achievements.
