Yesterday, the construction machinery plate volume increased by 2.75%, the flyover in the plate, the rising and stopping of the Dagang Road, Zhengzhou coal machine, Hengli hydraulic, Taiyuan heavy industry and other stocks are also more significant. Nearly 3 trading days, the plate continued to rise, the cumulative increase of nearly 6%.
The analysis points out that in the first half of this year, the sales volume of excavators in China has increased significantly in the first half of the year, especially the export data continued to continue high and the overseas sales have doubled again, which shows that the recovery of the construction machinery industry is still continuing. The recent policy adjustment has improved market expectations. Two factors resonance, engineering machinery plate sustained pursuit of funds.
A strong recovery in sales
According to the statistics of the industry association of China engineering machinery industry, 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises, which were included in the statistics in 1-6 months of 2018, sold 120123 kinds of mining machinery products, up 60%. The sales volume of domestic market (statistical category does not contain Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) 111176 units, an increase of 57% over the same period. Export sales were 8895, up 110.5% over the same period. Among them, June single month, excavator sales 14 thousand and 200 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%; of which domestic market sales of 12 thousand and 400, an increase of 51.4%, export sales of 1723, an increase of 143.7%.
On the other hand, the construction machinery industry has entered the stage of performance release. According to the data of the securities business research report, the overall revenue of the construction machinery industry in 2017 was 164 billion 119 million yuan, up 40.89% from the same period, 49 billion 415 million yuan in the first quarter of 2018, an increase of 35.48% in the last year, and higher growth on the basis of last year's high base. As a result of the accumulation of a certain burden on the assets and liabilities of the engineering machinery plate in the history, the performance rebound lagged behind the income. From the statistical data, the performance began to rebound gradually from the first quarter of 2017. In 2017, the net profit of the construction machinery industry was 7 billion 642 million yuan, a significant increase of 218.82% compared to the same period, and the net profit of 3 billion 983 million yuan was achieved in the first quarter of 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 69.25%, and the performance elasticity was steadily released.
In response, analysts at Anxin Securities said that the industry is expected to maintain steady growth. First, update demand led: the lifespan of the excavator is 8 years or so. At present, over 8 years in the stock market, more than 20% of the life span of the excavator is still over; the environmental protection is stricter, the emission of some areas is not forced to be eliminated by the standard model; the last round of peak is in 2010-2011 years, after 8 years, corresponding to 2018-2019 years. Secondly, the new demand provides kinetic energy: the number of excavators in China is significantly higher than that of the international developed countries; the downstream fixed assets investment per 100 million yuan is at a lower level, and the mechanical replacement of artificial demand continues to catalyze, and the demand for the forklift and high altitude operating platform is strong, and the side is confirmed by the side.
The boom cycle is expected to lengthen
At the end of 2016, the industrial machinery industry began to recover from the excavator products. In 2017, the renewal cycle came, and the downstream infrastructure, mine, real estate and rural areas started to grow rapidly. The annual growth rate of the excavator was close to 100%, and the cycle superposition of the superposition of plate performance repair. Multiple factors jointly promote the rise of the plate. Among them, Hengli hydraulic and Xugong machinery shares rose larger in 2017.
After entering the 2018, the excavator shifted to medium speed growth on the basis of high base last year. How long can the industry boom cycle last? How should the plate be configured? Become the focus of current investors.
Changjiang Securities analyst said that the industry boom cycle is expected to lengthen, while the superimposed plate company report continued to repair, industry profitability elasticity is expected to accelerate the release. First, the start of the boom is maintained at a higher position with heavy machinery and concrete transmission. The opening hours of the excavator are still relatively high. The industry chain survey shows that the opening of other excavators is stable and the construction of cranes and pumps is steady and high. The post cycle lifting and concrete mechanical conduction; secondly, about 60% of the renewal ratio is dominated by the demand, and the gradual renewal release strengthens the industry development toughness. Finally, the market main body is rational, and the industrial research shows that this year the main engine factory upwards the proportion of down payment and improves the credit threshold.
Orient Securities said that in the environment of high base and macroeconomic pressure last year, the market's expectations for construction machinery were more pessimistic. The sales and construction of construction machinery, represented by the excavator, exceeded the market expectations for several months, and the inflection point before the market has never come, but the contradiction between macro investment growth down and micro sales makes the trend of the industry more blurred. In the short term, as time goes on, the market is expected to continue to repair its performance in the two quarter and expected to continue. In the long run, the growth of the industry is expected to remain around 20% in 2018, and it is still expected to maintain steady growth in 2019 after the analysis of the total social workload and historical trend analysis. It is recommended to focus on the leading enterprises that benefit from the optimization of the industrial structure, as well as the core parts suppliers of construction machinery and the leading enterprises in the post market.
