In July 23, 2018, the standing meeting of the State Council proposed that the role of financial and financial policies should be deployed better, and the structure of domestic demand adjustment should be supported to promote the development of the real economy, and measures to promote effective investment around the short board, increasing strength and benefiting the people's livelihood. Three points are put forward: first, the active fiscal policy should be more active, the two is the prudent monetary policy to be relaxed and moderate, and the three is to speed up the investment of the state financing guarantee fund.
At this meeting, the state gives the market confidence in the macro policy, demands that the fiscal policy should be more active and the monetary policy should be relaxed and moderate, and Fang Zheng Securities believes that confidence is more important than gold. Under the wind of positive policy, the pessimistic expectation of the macro-economy is expected to be restored, and the industrial machinery industry will take the wind. Construction machinery leading enterprises, in the next three years on the basis of renewing demand base, with the increase of permeability, the increase of the export ratio, the optimization of the industry pattern, the large resilience of the report of the leading enterprises, is expected to exceed the cycle.
In the first half of the year, under the adverse factors such as deleveraging, social scale reduction and liquidity constraints, the market continued to worry about the sustainability of the construction machinery industry. As a result, fangzheng believes that although the sales of excavators are overexpected every month, the stock prices of leading enterprises are still not warm, which shows that the pessimistic expectation has been reflected in the first half of the stock price. The deployment of the conference not only proposed that the positive fiscal policy should be more active, the stable monetary policy should be relaxed and moderate, and the stability of the macro policy should be maintained, and the strong irritation of "flood irrigation" should be maintained, and the capital use of infrastructure projects should be promoted, and the capital needs of the construction projects should be effectively guaranteed. Under the wind of the policy, the construction of infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The growth of infrastructure investment is expected to return to normal in the second half of the year. The market pessimistic expectation will be further repaired, and the sustainability of construction machinery will be extended.
On the premise of smooth operation of domestic macro-economy, fangzheng securities is expected to maintain rapid net profit growth in the next three years and strongly recommend Sany (600031.SH), Xugong machinery (000425.SZ), Liugong (000528.SZ), Hengli hydraulic (601100.SH), Zhejiang (603338.SH), China Federation Heavy industry (000157.SZ), Addie precision (603638.SH) and other core enterprises and core components.
