For a long time, China's "explosion buy" supports manufacturing manufacturers such as construction machinery, machine tools and industrial robots in Japan, but the situation is fading away. The reduction of orders from China and the decline in equipment operation rate are very obvious. Under the influence of Sino US trade friction, the pulling force of China's growth in Japan's manufacturing industry will start to become uncertain. Japanese companies began to explore new growth engines such as pure electric vehicles and mining after China.
According to figures released by the Japan Construction Machinery Industry Association on July 31, construction machinery shipments from January to June amounted to 1.3535 trillion yen, an increase of 8.5% over the same period of last year. Exports grew by 21%, maintaining a good momentum, but slowed down compared with the 32% growth rate in 2017. China's slow investment in fixed assets and environmental restrictions seem to be a drag factor.
China's hydraulic excavator demand increased 32% year on year in June, compared with a 2 times growth rate in 2017, and the overheating state has cooled down, according to data released by Hitachi. As of June, the average operating rate of Komatsu's construction machinery in China also declined for the 5 consecutive month. Komatsu's executive director, Jiji CHO, also cautioned that "an increase in opacity should be observed very carefully in the future".
On the one hand, the demand for machine tools and industrial robots will also usher in a period of adjustment. The figures released by Japan's machine tool industry show that the order amount in June was 159 billion 200 million yen, an increase of 11.4% over the same period last year. Despite the refreshing of the June single month historical record, it has remained at a relatively high level, but the growth rate has dropped.
In particular, China's demand, which has been a driving factor for 4 consecutive months, has decreased by 7.7%. Bulk orders for EMS, such as smart phones, are considered to be decreasing and lowering the overall level.
The same situation also occurs in the field of industrial robots. According to the Japan Robotics Industry Association, orders for June (based on membership companies) were 68.8 billion yen, down 0.6% from a year earlier, and two years later. The reason is that China's export of electronic parts assembly equipment is in the doldrums.
Robots used to produce cars are better than robots used to produce smartphones, but Inaba Yoji, President and chief executive officer of the CEO, still can't hide the worry, saying that "Japan's exports have a time lag." In fact, I have personally felt that the vigilance of the Chinese market is growing, and I feel that Chinese customers are watching the impact of Sino-US trade frictions.
Under such circumstances, the focus of attention from all sectors of Japan has shifted to the next source of profits. The construction machinery industry has noticed that the demand for mining machinery for large-scale mining dump trucks such as coal and iron ore has increased. Coupled with the revival of resource prices, the demand for precious metals needed for pure electric vehicles and electronic components will rekindle. Some industry groups said that "the volume of mining machinery shipments to Indonesia and other countries has increased", and they are full of expectations for relying on mining machinery to support market demand.
Machine tools and robots are also seeing signs of new demand that can replace smart phones. "FA (factory automation) investment may erupt after a period of dormancy," said Akagawa Electric's President Hao Ogasawa. The key words are China's 5G and pure electric vehicles. The company is focusing on the rise of new industries and continues to invest actively in servo motors.
