The bottom of the excavator is gradually clear in stages
The high point of the current cycle of excavators appeared in April 2021, and then began to enter the negative growth stage. From May 2021 to may 2022, the cumulative decline period was one year. Considering that the growth rate of excavator sales has begun to turn negative since May 2021, the year-on-year angular pressure on excavator sales has decreased since June 2022, and the absolute sales of excavators has also entered the vicinity of 20000 units, and the subsequent year-on-year growth pressure has decreased.
From the perspective of cycle, there is still pressure at present
The demand for excavators comes from the construction volume (infrastructure + real estate + mining investment), and the supply of excavators comes from the stock. Whether the increase of construction volume can bring the sales of new excavators, which is concerned by the market, the core need to be solved is the position of the current load rate of existing excavators.
From the perspective of inventory cycle, the industry conducted "excess" inventory replenishment under the disturbance of the epidemic in 2020. According to the estimation of 9-year service life, the number of domestic excavators at the end of 2021 was about 1.4 million. Reviewing the relationship between the number of excavators and the total amount of capital construction + real estate investment + mining investment from 2006 to 2021, it can be calculated that the investment amount of a single excavator in 2011 was 21 million yuan, which was also the top of the previous round of excavator sales, After that, the indicator began to rebound around RMB 29million in 2016. However, the investment growth rate in that year exceeded the growth rate of excavator ownership, which led to the indicator continuing to rise to RMB 30million in 2017, and then began to enter the downward channel. In 2021, the indicator fell to RMB 25million, not to the position of RMB 29~30million in 2016-2017. Therefore, from the perspective of cycle, there is still a certain pressure on the excavator sales.
The current position is similar to the stage from the end of 2012 to the beginning of 2013
1. Similar location: 2012 and 2022 are the first year of the decline of the high point of excavator. The peak of the last cycle in China occurred in April, 2011. From May, 2011 to October, 2012, the pressure on the overall high base in 2012 was relieved. The year-on-year decline of excavator began to weaken in October, 2012. Compared with the high point of the current cycle in March, 2021, the cumulative decline from April, 2021 to may, 2022 was 14 months, and the further down, the greater the decline, Subsequent year-on-year downward pressure decreases;
2. Similar macro policies: the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone in 2011 and the high unemployment rate in the United States have had a great impact on China's foreign trade exports. However, China's economic endogenous growth momentum is insufficient, and the automobile production and sales continue to hover around zero growth. Affected by the policy of home appliances going to the countryside, replacing old ones with new ones, and the expiration of energy-saving subsidies, the growth rate of production and sales of major home appliances has dropped, and the real estate regulation has been suppressed. The overall growth rate has not changed much. The state requires that major projects in the 12th Five year plan be implemented on schedule, and a number of projects that are relevant to the overall situation and have strong driving force should be launched as soon as possible. The growth rate of infrastructure investment rose from -2.4% in February 2012 to 25.6% in March 2013. The current situation is similar. At present, the overall pressure of real estate investment is great, and infrastructure construction may become the starting point of the national economy.
This round of steady growth may be similar to that from the end of 2008 to 2009
In March, 2022, the GDP growth target of 2022 was proposed to be about 5.5%, with a growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, affected by the epidemic, the growth pressure may still be great, and the pressure in the second half of the year is great. Compared with 2008-2009, the quarterly growth rate of China's GDP in 2008 fell too fast under the background of the financial crisis. The "four trillion" policy was issued in October, 2008. In January, 2009, the GDP growth target of the year was proposed to be 10%, while the growth rate of Q1 was only 6.4%. Infrastructure began to work, In the middle of 2009, the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment increased rapidly.
At the current time point, such as the subsequent issuance of government bonds and the liberalization of credit lines of policy banks, infrastructure is expected to inject momentum and drive the sales of construction machinery to improve.
