In the first four months of 2022, the domestic heavy-duty dump truck market continued the downward trend of the previous year. In addition, the epidemic had a great impact. Especially in March and April, the market demand was weak. After April, the cumulative decline had reached 83%; On the other hand, the new energy of heavy-duty dump trucks is progressing rapidly (from January to April, new energy accounts for 8%, which is twice the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminal sales). Although this segment has suffered continuous decline, it still has a lot to see.
What is the performance of heavy dump trucks in May? Can new energy vehicles maintain the good momentum of previous months? The year 2022 will soon be more than half. Will there be any new changes in the industrial pattern of the heavy dump truck market?
The decline in May was narrower than that of the previous month, but the decline still exceeded 80%
According to the terminal sales data (traffic compulsory insurance, excluding exports and military vehicles) obtained by the first commercial vehicle network, in May 2022, the domestic heavy-duty dump truck market sold 4330 vehicles in total, which was the same as that in April (the same as that in April), with a year-on-year decrease of 86% and a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with that in April (a year-on-year decrease of 89%). So far, the heavy dump truck market has expanded from the continuous decline in the second half of 2021 to "11 continuous declines", and the decline in the last three months has exceeded 80%.
From the monthly trend of domestic heavy dump truck terminal sales in the past three years, the red line representing 2022 has been at a low level. The average monthly sales of less than 4000 vehicles in the first two months of this year is a complete bottom performance. Although the average sales in the three months from March to May increased slightly compared with the two months at the beginning of the year, it is still low compared with the same period of the previous two years. It can be seen from the above figure that the sales volume from March to June was the highest in the previous two years. The average sales volume from March to June 2020 reached 30000 units, and the average sales volume from March to June 2021 was close to 40000 units. However, the average sales volume in March to May this year was only more than 5000 units. According to this development, there will be no possibility of rapid progress in June. From the trend of dump trucks from January to May this year, the "low" of this market is very stable.
According to media reports, in the first quarter of this year, thousands of major projects across the country were planned to start, which was a great benefit to the heavy dump truck market. However, affected by the epidemic, a wave of projects that should have started long ago were delayed or even suspended. This wave of "good" has not been "realized" in April and may.
Dongfeng won the champion of the monthly list for several times, and heavy truck returned to the top two of the monthly list
In May, the domestic heavy-duty dump truck terminal market decreased by 86% year-on-year, and the mainstream enterprises in the heavy-duty dump truck market (top 10 in sales) accounted for 92.89% of the total market share.
In May, the heavy dump truck market continued to suffer a sharp decline. All mainstream enterprises fell, and the decline reached double digits. Many enterprises fell by more than 80%. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline in May fell by 94% year-on-year. However, some Dayun, Sany and other enterprises fell significantly lower than the overall decline of the market, outperforming the "overall market".
In the first two months of this year, no enterprise in the heavy dump truck market sold more than 1000 vehicles per month. In March, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile and heavy truck sold more than 1000 vehicles per month; In April and may, no enterprise sold more than 1000 in the heavy dump truck market for two consecutive months. In May, Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. won the champion of monthly sales of heavy dump truck market with 908 vehicles and a monthly share of 20.97%, which is the sixth consecutive month since December last year that Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. has ranked first in this segment; Heavy truck ranked second with 664 vehicles and a monthly share of 15.33%, which was the second place for heavy dump truck after two months; Shaanxi Automobile ranks third with 614 vehicles, with a monthly share of 14.18%; Jiefang and Futian sold 468 and 438 heavy dump trucks respectively in May, ranking 4th and 5th in the monthly list of heavy dump truck market in May, with monthly shares of 10.81% and 10.12% respectively. In May, the shares of the top five enterprises in the monthly list of heavy dump trucks exceeded 10%, and the total shares reached 71.41%.
In the first may, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 7%, and "new" competition stirred up the industry pattern
From January to May this year, the domestic heavy-duty dump truck market sold 23400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 84%, which was further expanded compared with the previous April (-83%), a net decrease of 121700 units compared with the same period last year, which was less than the cumulative sales of an enterprise of Shaanxi Automobile in the same period last year. After May, the ranking of heavy dump truck terminal sales this year has changed a lot compared with that at the end of last year: Dongfeng and SINOTRUK, which ranked second and third at the end of last year, have temporarily ranked the top two in the industry after May; FAW Jiefang rose from the 5th place at the end of last year to the 4th place in the current industry; Futian and Universiade also rose by one place from the 6th and 7th places at the end of last year to the 5th and 6th places in the current industry; Last year, Sany group, which "had no name" in the top ten at the end of the year, rushed into the top ten and temporarily ranked eighth in the industry with the cumulative sales of 628 vehicles.
In terms of market share, compared with the same period last year, 7 of the top 10 enterprises with cumulative sales from January to May this year achieved cumulative share growth. Dongfeng and Universiade achieved the largest share growth, both of which increased by more than 3 percentage points, up 4.17% and 3.71% respectively; The cumulative share of Sany group this year also increased by nearly 2%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; XCMG, Futian, Sanhuan and CNHTC increased by 1.29%, 0.68%, 0.44% and 0.06% respectively; If the scope is expanded a little, Yutong, which currently ranks 11th in terms of cumulative sales, increased its share in the heavy dump truck market by 2.09 percentage points from January to May this year compared with the same period last year.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, among the top ten enterprises in terms of cumulative sales from January to May this year, only two enterprises, heavy truck and Hubei Third Ring Road, remained unchanged; Dongfeng, Jiefang, Futian, Universiade, Sany, XCMG and other 6 enterprises rose in the rankings. Among them, Dongfeng rose from the third place in the industry in the same period last year to the first place in the industry at present; Jiefang, Futian and Universiade all rose by one place; Sany and XCMG rose from the top 10 in the same period last year to the top 10 in the industry, of which Sany rose from the 13th in the same period to the current 8th, while XCMG rose from the 12th in the same period to the 10th; Yutong, currently ranked 11th in the industry, has risen rapidly from the top 20 in the same period last year (from January to may last year, Yutong sold only 8 vehicles). Of course, there is a decline when there is an increase. There is also a decline in the industry ranking of more than one enterprise from January to May this year compared with the same period last year.
The rapid rise of Sany, XCMG and Yutong in the heavy dump truck industry this year is closely related to the new energy transformation of the dump truck industry. The first commercial vehicle network noted that from January to May this year, among the terminal sales of 23400 heavy dump trucks, 1716 were new energy models, accounting for 7.34%. Although the proportion decreased compared with the previous April, the proportion of more than 7% was still 1.8 times of the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in the terminal sales of heavy trucks (4%) in the previous may, which was the segment with the highest proportion of new energy in the heavy truck market. From January to May this year, the "penetration" of new energy vehicles in the field of dump trucks was very fast. You know, in 2021, new energy vehicles accounted for less than 1% of the dump truck market in the whole year.
The first commercial vehicle network noted that the fuel type structure of the heavy truck market this year has undergone great changes compared with last year, and the same is true in the field of dump trucks. It can be seen from the above figure that from January to May this year, although diesel power is still the fuel type with the highest proportion in the field of heavy dump trucks, it has decreased by nearly 8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The total share of new energy vehicles (hybrid, fuel cell and pure electric) increased by 7.14 percentage points, of which pure electric dump trucks were the most outstanding, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year; In addition, the proportion of terminal sales of natural gas dump trucks to that of heavy dump trucks also increased by 0.75% from January to May this year. The expansion of the proportion of new energy vehicles is stirring up the industry pattern in the field of heavy dump trucks.
It can be seen from the above figure that among the top 12 enterprises in terms of terminal sales of heavy dump trucks from January to May this year, Sany, XCMG and Yutong accounted for a very high proportion of new energy vehicles, reaching 35.2%, 74.7% and 98.2% respectively. It is worth mentioning that Yutong, XCMG and Sany were also the top 3 enterprises in terms of new energy dump trucks from January to May; At the same time, the proportion of new energy in the sales of dump trucks of top enterprises in Jiefang, Futian, Hongyan and other industries from January to may also exceeded 3.5%, of which the proportion of new energy models of Futian dump trucks exceeded 4%. According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, under the background of the national "double carbon strategy", new energy vehicles will be a new competitive point in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks. In the future, the market pattern of heavy-duty dump trucks is likely to change due to this new competitive point.
epilogue
From January to May of 2022, the heavy dump truck market suffered a sharp decline one after another. This segment, which is considered the most promising segment of the heavy truck market this year, did not show the expected "level" under the dual impact of lower demand and epidemic situation. Next, there are still variables in the impact of the epidemic, which has a great impact on the progress of major projects in various regions. It is unknown when this part of dump truck demand will be reflected; On the other hand, in areas and working conditions where the commercial operation of new energy vehicles such as mining areas, construction sites and power plants is becoming more and more mature, pure electric dump trucks are also responsible for sales, but the implementation and licensing process of this part of demand are also hindered by the epidemic. Theoretically, the heavy dump truck market has accumulated a large part of terminal sales that should have been "released" long ago. When will this part of pent up demand "break out"?
