On March 23, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the national medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035), which is an important guiding plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry in the next 15 years, marking that the Chinese government has issued the first top-level design document for the medium and long term hydrogen energy industry with important milestone significance.
According to this planning document, China will promote the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure, promote the demonstration application of hydrogen energy, and put forward specific goals for the scale of hydrogen production from renewable energy in 2025, that is, the annual capacity of hydrogen production from renewable energy will reach 100000-200000 tons.
It is estimated that the output value of the hydrogen energy industry may reach more than trillion yuan in the future, and this emerging industry is in line with the trend of the times and is poised for development, leading to a sharp rise in the capital market of related industries.
According to my judgment, generally speaking, China's hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of development, that is, it is far from entering the rapid growth period of industrial development, and it will take a long time to enter the mature period of development.
Compared with the international advanced level, China's hydrogen energy industry has many problems, obstacles and difficulties, such as unclear industrial strategic positioning, weak industrial international competitiveness, weak industrial technological innovation ability, imperfect relevant standards, unclear energy attributes, lagging infrastructure construction, unreasonable industrial layout and many other difficult problems.
1、 Due to the lack of long-term strategy, the industrial positioning is not yet clear
At present, there are many countries carrying out the layout of hydrogen energy industry, and the economic aggregate of these countries has accounted for 75% of the global economic aggregate. However, due to many constraints, the hydrogen energy industry has not really formed a global industrial chain, and has not yet played a real role in promoting global economic development and coping with climate change as a whole.
From past experience, if the state wants to vigorously guide and promote the development of an industry, it is very important for the state to formulate top-level design policies, which is the valuable experience accumulated in the process of China's reform and opening up and economic development.
In the development of the hydrogen energy industry, China lacked the top-level design at the central government level for a long time in the past, which is related to the numerous disputes and differences in the industry and academia on how to develop the hydrogen energy industry, because if there is no general consensus, it is difficult for the government to make up its mind to formulate corresponding policies.
In this context, compared with western developed countries, China has indeed lacked the overall top-level policy design for hydrogen energy development for a long time, and there is a significant lag in industrial strategic planning, special planning and related policy systems.
For a long time, China's hydrogen energy industry has been basically in a market driven development period. There is no long-term strategy, long-term planning, development schedule and road map, and of course there is no implementation of construction drawings. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are more active in investment, while large enterprises are stagnant and wait-and-see, and the activities of market players are relatively inert.
In terms of product management, the state does not include hydrogen in energy products, but it is included in the category of hazardous chemicals, which is quite strict in terms of safety management. Therefore, the government departments are very strict in the approval of the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and it is very difficult to obtain the approval of construction projects, which has greatly restricted the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry in China.
In the energy system, what is the role of hydrogen energy and its source? That is, how about the hydrogen production process? Is it from primary fossil energy? Or from nature? Or from electrolytic water? What are the areas of use?
It can be said that these problems have existed for a long time, and have also been debated and debated in the academic and energy circles for a long time. Of course, this is one of the key reasons why China's hydrogen energy industry has failed to develop on a large scale. Up to now, there are still suspense.
If hydrogen energy is produced from fossil energy, why not use fossil energy directly? If it comes from electrolytic water, where does the large amount of electricity come from? If it comes from fossil energy power generation, then there is a contradiction in logic.
In the field of hydrogen energy utilization, the available application scenarios are quite single, and it seems that they are mainly concentrated in the field of transportation.
From the perspective of technology and the whole industrial chain, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still facing some problems. The most important one is where hydrogen comes from, that is, how the hydrogen production route is, which may directly determine whether the industry has a development prospect.
From the perspective of China's hydrogen energy industry planning, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles focuses on passenger vehicles, while the demonstration operation of medium and heavy trucks with more advantages in the fuel cell technology route is rarely carried out.
According to the prediction of insiders, it is expected that China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will not be ready for industrialization until about 2025-2030. However, it is still uncertain whether they can be industrialized at that time.
According to the opinions of some experts, even if China's hydrogen energy industry really has the conditions for industrialization at that time, there are still large risks in technology, investment and cost.
We should know that the competitor of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is electric vehicles. It is expected that the battery technology of key technologies of electric vehicles may continue to make breakthroughs, such as ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate technology may gradually mature, and their costs may also continue to decline.
In the case of the above scenario, it can be predicted that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may not have a competitive advantage in the market of medium and short distance transportation vehicles, or it is difficult to form a competitive strength with electric vehicles.
If so, the current large-scale investment in passenger cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells in China may be in the wrong direction, and the investment return may not be guaranteed, which may become a fatal problem for investors, and may turn the huge investment into a "floating water".
According to the content of hydrogen energy industry planning in various regions, those areas that are really difficult to "decarbonize" and really need "hydrogen energy", such as chemical industry, smelting, rail transit, aerospace, distributed power generation, cogeneration and many other industrial areas, are less involved, or receive insufficient attention or attention, and the progress of relevant technology research and development and project implementation is also relatively slow, The value and potential of hydrogen energy that should have been used to achieve the purpose of carbon reduction or decarbonization have been seriously ignored.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are only a part of the utilization of hydrogen energy. In the future, hydrogen energy will have opportunities to be used in many other industries, which objectively requires that wind power, photovoltaic and other clean energy account for a very large proportion in the energy system.
When wind power and photovoltaic power generation occupy a large enough proportion in the energy system, wind power and photovoltaic power generation in Western China can be transmitted to the eastern power consumption area through UHV technology, and hydrogen energy can turn these unstable clean energy into storable and transportable energy.
For a long time in the past, some Chinese local governments blindly followed the trend in the development of hydrogen energy industry, the trend of homogeneous competition was obvious, and the phenomenon of low-level construction began to appear.
In a word, the development of China's hydrogen energy industry is still basically in the primary stage. Although the state has recently issued a hydrogen energy industry development plan before 2030, it has not yet formulated a hydrogen energy development strategy for the next few decades, and the top-level design is generally lacking.
2、 Due to the high cost, the industrial competitiveness is seriously insufficient
If any industry wants to really develop, the final decisive factor is economy.
If the cost of an industry is too high and the enterprise is unable to make profits, it means that the industry itself does not have the economy of industrial development, nor does it have the opportunity for sustainable development.
The development of hydrogen energy industry in various regions of China is mostly in the demonstration stage, the infrastructure construction is seriously lagging behind and insufficient, and the regional distribution of the industry is also very uneven.
Judging from the fact that hydrogen energy in China could not develop rapidly for a long time in the past, the core is that this new industry has not yet had the ability of commercial operation, and the key factor is that the cost of the whole industrial chain is too high.
1. hydrogen production cost
From the upstream link of the hydrogen energy industry, it is actually the issue of how to produce and source hydrogen energy. This issue has been one of the core issues in the energy sector for a long time, especially the high cost of hydrogen production.
At present, most of China's existing hydrogen production technologies rely on disposable energy such as coal and natural gas. Their economy is different from that of traditional fossil energy, and there are still risks in terms of environment, ecology and carbon emissions. Therefore, it is normal to have disputes or serious ambiguities in scientific logic.
If hydrogen production is separated from fossil energy, another hydrogen production path is electrolytic water. However, the power required in the process of electrolytic water must be green power, that is, renewable energy must be used for power generation. In terms of energy conversion efficiency and cost, this path has the problems of low efficiency and high comprehensive cost.
In general, the cost of hydrogen production in China remains high, and the hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage of commercialization. It is difficult to reduce the cost of hydrogen production through large-scale production.
2. hydrogen storage cost
From the aspect of hydrogen storage, although technologies such as pressurized compression hydrogen storage, liquefied hydrogen storage and organic compound hydrogen storage have made great progress, the balance between hydrogen storage density, safety and hydrogen storage cost has not been solved, so there is still a long way to go from large-scale commercial application.
At present, 20MPa gaseous high-pressure hydrogen storage and long tube trailer transportation are widely used in China, and the cost is about 20 yuan / kg, accounting for half of the terminal consumption price of hydrogen.
However, the hydrogen storage density of gaseous transportation is low and the compression energy consumption is high. It is only applicable to hydrogen refueling stations with a daily demand of less than 300kg and a short transportation distance.
With the expansion of domestic hydrogen consumption scale and the lengthening of transportation distance in the future, 50MPa gaseous high-pressure hydrogen storage or liquid hydrogen transportation can meet the requirements of high efficiency and economy. At present, the proportion of low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage abroad is as high as 70%, which shows that there is a gap in hydrogen storage technology between China and foreign countries.
In terms of fixed hydrogen storage equipment, most domestic hydrogen storage devices in China are steel inner cylinder and steel belt wound containers. At present, the price of 45MPa fixed hydrogen storage containers per cubic meter of water volume exceeds 200000 yuan, and the price of 98 MPa fixed hydrogen storage containers per cubic meter of water volume exceeds 1million yuan.
Therefore, under the existing domestic technical conditions, the total cost of hydrogen liquefaction process is very high, and the fixed investment of equipment in the early stage is large, which further increases the hydrogen storage cost.
3. hydrogen fuel cell cost
In the fuel cell sector, industrialization is still in its early stage, and the economic weakness is very prominent.
At present, the development of fuel cell vehicles in China is slow, mainly due to the lack of localization of some key components and core raw materials of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, immature technology and high dependence on foreign imports, resulting in high costs.
In addition, most applications of hydrogen fuel cells in China are in the field of commercial vehicles, and there is still much room for improvement. The problem of regional balanced development needs to be overcome.
From the cost data of hydrogen fuel cell, there is a big gap between China and abroad. The cost of membrane electrode module in China is about 4000 yuan / kW, which is a big gap with the international 700 yuan / kW; The stack cost is 6000 yuan / kW, while the international cost is 1000 yuan / kW.
At present, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles mainly rely on government subsidies, and the acquisition cost, operation cost and disposal cost of the application end life cycle also need to be reduced.
4. construction cost of hydrogenation station
The number of hydrogen refueling stations is an important reference index to measure industrial development. At present, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in operation and under construction in China is still small, and they are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei, and the supporting equipment is still in the demonstration stage.
At present, there is no mature mass production of key components required for the construction of hydrogen refueling stations in China, resulting in high construction costs, low return on investment, economic benefits and competitiveness, and great difficulty in implementation.
3、 Due to the weak innovation ability, the industry is facing technical bottleneck
The key hydrogen energy materials and equipment components have harsh requirements, complex processes and high costs, and the technology gap between different countries and departments is obvious.
Although the development of China's hydrogen energy industry has achieved remarkable results, there is still a large gap with the world's advanced level in many aspects.
Objectively speaking, the hydrogen energy industry chain is long and the technology is difficult. Compared with the international leading level, China has a gap in key basic materials, core components, scientific mechanism of hydrogen safety and professionals.
In fact, China's hydrogen energy technology reserves are insufficient, the industrial foundation is relatively backward, and the regional differences are very obvious. The vast majority of regions do not have the ability and conditions to bring the technical equipment to the market.
There is still a big gap between some key parts and product technologies of China's hydrogen energy industry chain and the most advanced foreign technologies. For example, key parts such as membrane electrode, air compressor, hydrogen storage materials, hydrogenation gun and hose still need to be imported. Some key technologies are actually monopolized by foreign countries.
1. hydrogen production technology
According to different production methods and carbon emissions in the process, hydrogen can be divided into "grey hydrogen", "blue hydrogen" and "green hydrogen", representing three hydrogen production methods or paths.
Grey hydrogen refers to the production of hydrogen through the combustion of fossil energy.
Blue hydrogen is produced from fossil energy, but carbon emissions are reduced through carbon capture and storage technology.
Green hydrogen refers to power generation through clean energy and renewable energy, and hydrogen production through electrolysis of water.
According to media reports, in recent years, the proportion of hydrogen production from coal in China is as high as 62%, while that in the world is only 18%.
If coal is used as the main source of hydrogen production, the carbon emission level is almost the same as that of direct use of coal, so it is certainly not the development direction of hydrogen production industry in the future.
In terms of high-purity purification of by-product hydrogen, China already has a complete set of technical equipment, which is currently at the world's advanced level.
From the perspective of development trend, "green hydrogen" represents the future of the upstream chain of the hydrogen energy industry, and its production scale determines the key to the sustainability of the hydrogen energy industry.
In terms of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water, there are currently two technical routes: alkaline water electrolysis (ALK) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) pure water electrolysis. China's alkaline electrolyzer technology is in the leading level in the world as a whole, but PEM hydrogen production technology lags far behind the world's advanced level.
2. hydrogenation station technology
China's hydrogenation stations basically use high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, with limited reserves. 30% of overseas hydrogenation stations store liquid hydrogen.
At present, although China has the ability to integrate key technologies and equipment of 35 MPa hydrogen refueling stations, there is still a big gap in key indicators and localization.
In terms of compressor technology, China's fully localized 45 MPa compressor has a small flow and a high failure rate in practical application. Its key components still need to be imported and assembled in China. At the same time, China does not have the technology and capacity to produce commercial 87 MPa compressors.
In terms of hydrogenation machine technology, China still relies on imports of hydrogenation guns. Domestic 70 MPa hydrogenation machines are in the stage of test and verification, and there is a large gap between the indicators of foreign commercial 70 MPa hydrogenation machines.
In terms of high-pressure pipelines and valves for hydrogen infrastructure, China still needs to rely on foreign imports.
For the process control system of the hydrogenation station, China has basically succeeded in research and development, but it still needs to be further verified and optimized through actual operation in the future.
3. hydrogen storage and transportation technology
The domestic hydrogen energy storage and transportation mode in China is mainly high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage combined with tube bundle truck transportation, and the 35 MPa high-pressure hydrogen storage tank is mainly used. The 70 MPa hydrogen storage tank has initially achieved mass production, and there is a technical gap at home and abroad.
Domestic hydrogen transportation basically adopts 20 MPa long tube trailer with small transportation volume, limited transportation radius and high cost. Foreign countries use 45 MPa long tube trailer and liquid hydrogen tank car.
4. hydrogen fuel cell technology
At present, China's hydrogen fuel cell system, electric stack and compressor have been basically localized. Hydrogen circulating pump and humidifier can be supplied in small quantities by the end of 2020. Proton exchange membrane and gas diffusion layer are being verified in small quantities. Breakthrough progress has been made in high-end carbon fiber and some pipe fittings of on-board hydrogen system, but there are still many gaps compared with international advanced technology.
For example, fuel cell materials such as highly active catalyst, high strength and high proton conductivity composite membrane, carbon paper, low platinum electrode and high power density bipolar plate are mainly imported.
There is a big gap in the preparation process of key components, such as membrane electrode, bipolar plate, compressor, hydrogen circulating pump, etc., compared with foreign countries.
There is a gap between the reliability and durability of fuel cell stacks and systems and the international advanced level.
4、 Due to the late start of industrial development, relevant standards have not been improved
At present, the technical standards for hydrogen energy in China are not perfect, and there are few technical standards related to hydrogen quality, storage and transportation, hydrogenation station and safety.
1. imperfect industry standard system
In the field of hydrogen energy in China, many standards have seriously lagged behind, and many standards have not yet been formulated, especially the requirements on product safety, reliability, durability, etc.
Therefore, for the healthy development of the hydrogen energy industry, China should actively carry out practical international cooperation and simultaneously establish a product testing and certification mechanism.
The state should adopt policies and measures to promote and support the research on alliance standards and industry standards, and accelerate the construction of a standardized collaborative innovation mechanism combining national standards, industry standards and alliance standards.
Relevant hydrogen energy enterprises should make full use of global innovation resources and actively participate in global fuel cell technology and industrial innovation cooperation, especially the construction of international standard system and standard development.
2. there is no standard system for approval of hydrogen refueling station construction
The key link of hydrogen refueling station construction is land approval.
From the perspective of current policies, the approval process of commercial land is quite complex, which has objectively become the core element restricting the construction of hydrogen refueling stations. At present, the land approval process in various regions is complex and inconsistent. Although local governments encourage and support the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, it is very difficult to obtain the "birth certificate" of hydrogen refueling stations.
As the hydrogen energy industry is an emerging industry, and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is a new thing, local governments lack specific policies and systems in planning, project approval, approval and operation supervision.
5、 Due to the characteristics of previous products, the energy attributes are not clear
At present, the global hydrogen energy industry is in the initial stage of development, and its share in the final energy consumption is still very low.
In reality, China's hydrogen is mainly used in chemical industry, steel and other fields, specifically in petrochemical, chemical, coking and other industries. It is mainly used as chemical raw materials for the production of methanol, synthetic ammonia and various chemical products such as chemical fertilizers.
Among them, only a small amount of high-purity hydrogen is used as industrial raw materials, such as high-purity electronic hydrogen, while less than 0.1% of hydrogen is used as energy for fuel cells.
It can be seen that in the past long period, hydrogen itself was not developed as an energy industry, or the positioning of hydrogen energy was ambiguous in the whole energy production and consumption system.
Due to unclear positioning, the state has not formulated systematic development goals and Implementation Paths for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry in the past, which is not conducive to maximizing the utility of existing industrial factors and building a policy guarantee system for industrial development.
From the above reality, China's current hydrogen consumption is still concentrated in the field of traditional high energy consumption, which seems to have nothing to do with coping with climate change and achieving the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutralization".
At present, China lists hydrogen as a hazardous chemical, which was basically not included in the energy management system in the past. Some time ago, the state listed hydrogen as an energy attribute for the first time in the plan issued, which is certainly a great progress and will certainly play a major role in the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the future.
6、 Infrastructure construction lags behind due to lack of sufficient understanding
The construction of long-distance hydrogen transmission pipeline and hydrogenation station has large investment, long cycle, high operation cost, and the limitations of hydrogen gas source and transmission mode. Before the large-scale construction of hydrogenation station, it is particularly important to obtain construction and operation experience through demonstration station.
The number of hydrogen refueling stations built in China is still small, but it is not backward in the world.
In the past, most domestic hydrogen refueling stations were in-situ test stations and skid mounted stations, which were characterized by fixed hydrogen storage capacity or low capacity of hydrogen compression system.
Of course, with the increase of the scale of hydrogenation vehicles, the above construction mode of hydrogenation station will not be able to meet the commercial needs of randomization of the mobilization time of hydrogenation vehicles and short single filling time.
Infrastructure construction is the key link to open up the upstream and downstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and it is also a prerequisite for the large-scale promotion and application of hydrogen energy. Therefore, the actual number of hydrogen refueling stations is seriously insufficient, which is indeed an important problem.
Based on China's national conditions, China can trace its roots, overtake at corners, make full use of the existing oil and gas infrastructure, orderly promote the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure, and effectively improve the safety and economy of hydrogen storage, transportation and filling.
By the end of 2021, China has built more than 190 hydrogen refueling stations, and more than 157 in-service hydrogen refueling stations, surpassing Japan and ranking first in the world.
However, for the development of hydrogen energy industry, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is obviously too small. If the number and scale cannot be formed, it is difficult to say that the hydrogen energy industry will have a great development.
The fundamental reason for the slow construction of the hydrogenation station is the cost.
Compared with the charging pile, the construction cost of the charging pile is relatively low, but the construction of the hydrogenation station often requires more than ten million yuan of investment. Obviously, this huge cost restricts the construction speed of the hydrogenation station.
However, with the implementation of the demonstration city policy in 2021, the construction of domestic hydrogen refueling stations began to speed up. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of domestic hydrogen refueling stations may exceed 1000.
It is not terrible to have problems, but many problems will always be solved. This is the practice of industrial development in China.
As long as we stick to the right direction, do a solid job in basic research, learn from foreign experience, solve existing problems, and establish a cooperation mechanism of resource sharing, complementary advantages, benefit sharing and coordination, China's hydrogen energy industry will have a promising future.
China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still in the initial stage. There are few operating vehicles and it is difficult to make profits. The construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations cannot balance the revenue and expenditure through economies of scale. As a result, the construction and operation mode is not mature enough, the industrialization capacity of hydrogenation equipment is insufficient, and the cost is high.
Infrastructure construction lags behind, which in turn directly affects the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
According to agency estimates, China will need at least 1400 hydrogen refueling stations in 2030 to meet the needs of major cities.
7、 Due to the lack of regional coordination, the industrial layout is misplaced
Limited by the distribution of China's renewable energy resources, there is often a large time and space mismatch between the hydrogen production end and the hydrogen consumption end, and a perfect hydrogen storage and transportation network channel has not yet been formed.
Northwest China is rich in renewable energy resources (such as scenery), while the large-scale demand for hydrogen is mainly in the economically developed and densely populated southeast region. Objectively, there are contradictions and difficulties in regional coordinated development. In fact, this is consistent with the regional dislocation faced by other energy development.
From the perspective of practical analysis and assessment, although China has made some progress in the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and various regions have actively formulated planning and support policies, on the whole, this emerging industry is still basically in the stage of technology research and development and project demonstration, and the hydrogen energy industry generally does not have the conditions for large-scale commercial promotion.
At present, there are many problems in the development of hydrogen energy industry. Therefore, the whole industry is in a chaotic state. Local governments rush into various projects blindly. This disorderly behavior will lead to low-level duplication and waste of resources in the hydrogen energy industry, affecting the healthy development of the whole hydrogen energy industry.
The hydrogen energy industry spans many fields, such as energy, materials, equipment manufacturing, etc., which can not only effectively drive the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, but also stimulate new industrial chains, with outstanding integration and driving effects. Therefore, local governments have high enthusiasm for developing hydrogen energy, and have launched the construction of hydrogen energy industrial parks in many places.
According to media reports, at present, the total capacity of hydrogen fuel cell stacks planned by local governments has exceeded 1500 MW. However, China's hydrogen energy industrialization is still in its infancy, with limited market capacity and bottlenecks or contradictions in key technologies, economy and infrastructure.
If the coordination is not sufficient, it is estimated that the above capacity will be difficult to be fully released in a short time. Once the plan is implemented, it may face the risk of overcapacity, and the problem of low-level repeated investment in the past may reappear.
