Compared with the previous "rapid progress", the third quarter of the construction machinery industry was somewhat "cold".
"The bitter days are coming again," said a person from a construction machinery enterprise. The third quarterly report shows that the performance of many leading enterprises in the construction machinery industry fell sharply year-on-year in the third quarter, and even individual enterprises fell into a single quarter loss. According to the reporter's survey, the slowdown in the pace of downstream infrastructure and the rise in the price of raw materials are all influencing factors. However, more construction machinery enterprises maintain an optimistic attitude: "the logic of the recovery of downstream demand is still there."
The industry experienced a "trough quarter"
In the third quarter of this year, Sany Heavy industry realized an operating revenue of 20.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.14%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 2.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.32%. In the first half of the year, Sany Heavy Industry still maintained strong growth. Dragged down by the third quarter, Sany Heavy industry realized an operating revenue of 87.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 20.34%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 12.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%.
Sany Heavy Industry bluntly said that in the third quarter, the company's revenue growth decreased and the product structure changed mainly due to the weakening of domestic downstream demand and the high base of super compensation rebound last year; At the same time, the company continued to promote the strategy of digitization, internationalization and electrification, and increased the investment in talents and R & D.
Data show that the sales of domestic excavators have declined year-on-year for many consecutive months. Excavator is one of the most important sub industries of the construction machinery industry, a barometer of the industry and infrastructure, and a strong plate of Sany Heavy Industry.
According to the statistics of 25 excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in September 2021, the sales volume of various excavators was 20085, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%; Among them, 13934 sets were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%; 6151 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 79%. From January to September 2021, 279338 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1%; Among them, 232312 sets were sold in China, with a year-on-year increase of 9.16%; 47026 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%.
According to the statistics of the association, although the export has increased, from April to August this year, the domestic sales of excavators were about 41100, 22000, 17000, 12000 and 12300 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.24%, 25.2%, 21.9%, 24.1% and 31.7% respectively.
Another leading enterprise of construction machinery - Shanhe intelligence has also been affected. In the third quarter, the operating revenue of Shanhe intelligence was 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies decreased by 134.02% year-on-year, and the loss in a single quarter was about 40 million yuan. Shanhe intelligence said that the main reason for the increase in revenue but not profit in the third quarter was the continuous rise of raw materials such as steel, which pushed up manufacturing costs, resulting in a decline in product gross profit margin.
Zoomlion achieved an operating revenue of 11.98 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 27.04%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 900 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.01%. In the first three quarters of this year, its operating revenue was 54.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%.
However, the construction machinery industry still had a bright color in the third quarter. In the third quarter, XCMG machinery achieved an operating revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.46%. In the first three quarters of 2021, its total operating revenue was 69.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%.
It's time to compete with your internal skills
After the third quarter results were released, many research institutions have lowered the performance outlook of construction machinery giants in the next few years, but they are still optimistic about the sustained growth of leading enterprises.
"We believe that the construction machinery industry is affected by the pace of infrastructure construction in the short term. However, in the long run, the current cycle of construction machinery is significantly different from the previous cycle, the industry is more stable, and the voice and influence of leading enterprises are increasing." a researcher in the construction machinery industry believes that.
In response to investors' questions at the end of October, Zoomlion said that in the third quarter, the industry's demand fell due to multiple factors such as real estate regulation, infrastructure construction, power restriction and high energy consumption of steel. Considering that the decline of special debt led to the recovery of infrastructure, the decline of raw material prices and the logic of recovery of downstream demand, the specific time was greatly affected by macro policies.
In the previous survey, a leading construction machinery enterprise also expressed its outlook for the second half of this year: "Due to the infrastructure policy and financial support in the second half of 2020, the domestic construction machinery industry grew rapidly in the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In June this year, the" national five year plan "was upgraded to" national six ", the market demand fell slightly, and the third quarter entered a relatively low season. In the long run, the switching from" national five year plan "to" national six "will aggravate the construction constraints of existing equipment and accelerate the construction of existing equipment Delisting will stimulate new purchase demand. At the same time, the current favorable factors supporting the sustained recovery of investment are increasing, the investment stabilization policy will continue to exert force, the infrastructure construction will gradually resume in the fourth quarter, and the construction machinery industry is expected to stabilize and show a shock upward trend. "
The person in charge of a leading construction machinery enterprise said: "the large-scale infrastructure slowed down in the third quarter, but generally speaking, the infrastructure demand is still, and the overall situation will remain stable."
In addition, the decline in gross profit margin of leading construction machinery enterprises in the first three quarters was mainly affected by the rise in steel prices. At present, the downward trend of gross profit margin has slowed down significantly and the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize gradually.
Many people in the industry believe that the next step is to compete with the internal strength and internal power of leading enterprises.
"The period from 2011 to 2019 is the stage of adjustment and reshuffle of the construction machinery industry, showing a typical V-shape. The period from 2020 to 2030 will be the stage of industry fluctuation, and the market demand will be further specialized and refined." Liu Gong's relevant person in charge once said, "The construction machinery industry will enter the era of competition among leading enterprises, and the number of enterprises will be further reduced. After competition, the industry pattern will tend to be stable, and the scale of some enterprises will be further expanded."
According to the Research Report of Zheshang securities, construction machinery is China's current advantageous industry, and Chinese companies can rely on economies of scale, industrial chain and operation efficiency to achieve a global leading position. After completing the domestic layout, the leader of China's construction machinery industry will obtain a considerable market share in the world and move from China's leader to the global leader.
