In the traditional off-season of excavator sales from June to September, this year there are some "off-season is not light".
According to the data released by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in July this year, 26 excavator manufacturers sold 17939 excavators of various types, an increase of 3.42% year-on-year. This is the first time since May last year that the total sales growth of the excavator has achieved positive year-on-year growth.
Among them, there were 9250 domestic units, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%, and the decrease was narrowed; 8689 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.8%, which continued to be strong. Moreover, the proportion of export volume in total sales volume increased month by month, and the proportion of excavator export volume in July was 48.44%.
For a long time, excavators have been the most direct "barometer" to reflect the rise and fall of infrastructure. Corresponding to the sales volume of excavators, in July this year, a total of 3876 major projects were started nationwide, with a total investment of 2393.059 billion yuan. Among them, infrastructure projects are still one of the key areas of intensive construction in various regions.
In August, a number of major projects were started again in many places, and plans to expand effective investment were also implemented one after another.
In the view of market participants, with the gradual progress of major engineering projects around the country, the demand for excavators is expected to reach the bottom and rise again, and the industry may show a "post high" trend. In the second half of the year, infrastructure projects are expected to be accelerated under the support of funds. In the third quarter, the peak of acceleration may be met, and the infrastructure industry fundamentals are expected to improve.
"In the second half of the year, there is still much room for infrastructure investment. Special bonds and 0.6 trillion yuan of policy bank credit have made sufficient capital preparations for infrastructure construction. It is estimated that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 13.7%." Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute, told the reporter.
Capital construction drives excavator sales
According to the previous law, generally March May is the peak season for excavator sales, and June September is the off-season.
However, this year, "the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is not weak" has become the key word of this year.
According to the data, 17900 excavators of various types were sold in July, with a month on month decrease of 2900, a decrease of about 14%, but a year-on-year increase of 3.42%. This is the first time since May last year that the monthly sales volume of excavators has achieved positive year-on-year growth. Last month, the sales volume of excavators decreased by 10.1% year on year.
From the perspective of market, the sales volume of domestic excavators in July was 9300 units, a month on month decrease of 15.45%, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%, a decrease of about 10 percentage points over the previous month.
One highlight is that in the first half of this year, the domestic construction machinery operating rate improved quarter by quarter. The total working hours of excavators increased by 6.86% year-on-year, and the single month operating rate of construction machinery was 60.37%. Among them, the single month operating rate of construction machinery in the second quarter was 66.77%, which was significantly improved from 53.98% in the first quarter. The month on month increase in the number of operating hours in the whole country in July reflects that the actual operation in the downstream has improved.
"The continuous improvement of data such as the operating hours of construction machinery and equipment indicates that various measures to stabilize growth have begun to work, the social investment power has gradually strengthened, the economic growth has shown strong resilience, and the role of infrastructure project investment in driving economic growth is emerging." Zhang Jianhong, director of the environmental technology and economy branch of the China Society of technology and economics, said.
In contrast, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the national fixed asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 6.1% year-on-year, of which infrastructure investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that from January to May.
Exports continued to grow at a high rate. In July, the export of excavators reached 8689 sets, with a month on month decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 72.8%. It is understood that in the first half of this year, affected by the hot overseas orders, the overseas sales volume of many construction machinery enterprises increased significantly, and some enterprises reached a record high. Some overseas regions were in short supply.
According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from January to June, the import and export trade volume of China's construction machinery was US $21.391 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.2%. The export volume of each month was at the highest level in the same month.
Guangfa Securities believes that there will be a lag effect in the domestic sales of construction machinery in 2022, while the overseas market will have a high prosperity. At present, the superimposed epidemic situation under the large cycle has an impact on the shipment volume of the main engine factory. It is expected that the "excavator index" will further rise against the background of capital construction overweight.
Infrastructure investment in multiple places
Behind the hot sales of excavators is the policy of increasing the progress of infrastructure construction.
Since 2022, around the major national strategic deployment and the 14th five year plan, 25 provinces and cities in China have issued investment plans for 2022, with a total investment of more than 45 trillion yuan. The main investment directions are in the field of infrastructure and new infrastructure, and the infrastructure investment has been good.
Recently, the general office of the Henan Provincial People's government issued the work plan for comprehensively accelerating infrastructure construction and stabilizing the economy. It pointed out that 84 major infrastructure projects will be started by the end of September this year, with a total investment of 13.3 billion yuan. According to the plan, we should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure. Speed up the expansion of Railways into networks, and by 2025, the operating mileage of high-speed railways (including intercity railways) will exceed 3000 kilometers. Improve the layout of civil airports. By 2025, the number of transport airports will exceed 6 and the number of general airports will reach more than 20. The highway network will be strengthened and improved. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, 3000 kilometers of trunk roads will be newly rebuilt. We will promote water transport to reach rivers and seas. By 2025, the navigation mileage of the waterway will reach 2000 kilometers, and the port throughput will reach more than 70 million tons.
The synchronized list of key projects in Henan Province to comprehensively accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize the economy shows that more than 4.2 trillion yuan will be invested and 602 key infrastructure construction projects will be started.
One highlight is that Henan plans to promote the layout and construction of communication networks, new technologies and computing infrastructure, and create a new generation of information infrastructure benchmarking province. By 2025, the total number of 5g base stations in the province will reach 200000, and the total bandwidth of Internet backbone direct connection points will reach 2000g; The number of data center racks reached 150000, and the number of mobile Internet of things connections reached 300 million.
In Hunan, the infrastructure construction of Hunan with a total investment of more than 3 trillion yuan also kicked off. Among the 809 projects, in addition to the continuation and major early-stage projects, 240 new projects were started this year alone. With the continuous implementation of major projects, infrastructure investment will continue to play a role in stable growth.
In the northeast, the reconstruction and expansion projects of benhuan (Benxi Huanren) Expressway, lingsui (Lingyuan Suizhong) Expressway and Suizhong Panjin section of Beijing Harbin Expressway in Liaoning Province started at the same time. It is an important part of the national expressway network and the comprehensive transportation network of "double core, two axes and four channels" in Liaoning. The total investment is expected to reach 73.7 billion yuan, and its scale has set a new high in Liaoning's transportation infrastructure projects in recent years.
Not only at the local level, recently, the Ministry of natural resources and other seven departments issued the notice on strengthening the preliminary work of land use approval and actively promoting the construction of infrastructure projects, requiring that infrastructure construction should be comprehensively strengthened, land use factor guarantee should be strengthened, and the preliminary work of transportation, energy, water and other projects should be done to improve the quality and efficiency of land use approval.
According to the Research Report of Guohai Securities, a total of 3876 major projects were started nationwide in July, with a total investment of 2.39 trillion yuan, of which infrastructure projects are the key areas. In the second half of the year, infrastructure projects are expected to be accelerated under the support of funds, and the third quarter may meet the peak of acceleration.
