In July 2021, the heavy truck and tractor market sold 76300 and 33800 vehicles respectively, which is not a high "same period". Many people think that the first growth of the heavy truck and tractor market in 2022 is likely to be in July. However, the fact is cruel, the heavy truck and tractor market did not grow in July. In July, the heavy truck market continued to decline, but the decline was narrowing month by month. What about the tractor market?
In July, 21600 vehicles were sold, with a month on month decrease of 26% and a year-on-year decrease of 36%
According to the latest information, according to the data of China Automobile Association (the number of invoices issued by enterprises, non terminal actual sales, the same below), in July 2022, China's heavy truck market sold a total of 45200 vehicles, a month on month decrease of 18% and a year-on-year decrease of 41%. Among them, as the most concerned segment of the heavy truck market, the tractor market also showed a month on month and year-on-year decline in July: Sales of 21600 vehicles, a month on month decrease of 26% and a year-on-year decrease of 36%. Like the heavy truck market, the sales volume of the tractor market also showed a narrowing trend month by month (a year-on-year decrease of 72% in May and a year-on-year decrease of 64% in June). It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, the tractor market dropped by more than 60% in five months, with an average drop of 67%. Although the tractor market failed to reap growth in July, the year-on-year drop of 36% was much better than that in the first half of this year (the smallest drop this year). By July 2022, the tractor market has been declining for 16 consecutive months.
Looking at the sales volume and growth trend of the tractor market in July of the last five years, it can be seen that in July of the last five years, the tractor market achieved growth in 2019 and 2020. 72000 vehicles in July 2020 was the peak sales volume of the tractor market in July of the last five years, and it was also the only time that the tractor market exceeded 50000 vehicles in July of the last five years; In July 2021, the tractor market dropped by 53% in the first month after the "comprehensive national six" and fell back to the level of 30000 vehicles. In July this year, the sales volume of 21600 tractors in the tractor market was at the lowest level in the past five years, only equivalent to 30% of the sales volume in July 2020, which was the highest in five years, and slightly more than 60% of the sales volume in July last year. Compared with July 2018 and 2019, it was also much worse.
After July, the cumulative sales volume of this year's tractor market was less than 200000, down 66% from 564700 in the same period last year, with a net decrease of about 370000, less than 35% of the cumulative sales volume from January to July last year. According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, the heavy truck market has been depressed for a long time due to the low road freight rate (especially significant impact on the tractor market) and the national six-year switch. Although the market demand is slowly recovering, it is not obvious. The impact of the epidemic factors on the market in the last two months is significantly better than that in April and may. However, in the case of weak demand, even if there is no epidemic, the tractor market will not perform well. It can be seen from the above figure that the decline in the cumulative sales volume of the tractor market this year has been continuously expanding since February, and has dropped by 68% since May. This trend was finally "stopped" in June, and the decline in the cumulative sales volume was further narrowed after July. The decline in the cumulative sales volume of the tractor market from January to July was slightly narrower than that from January to May. Although it was only narrowed by 2 percentage points, it is very valuable in the current market environment of continuous decline.
None of the enterprises had a sales volume of more than 10000, and the top six of the Universiade were stable. Futian and XCMG increased inversely
In July, the tractor market decreased by 36% year-on-year, which was 28 percentage points narrower than that of last month (the tractor market decreased by 64% year-on-year in June), and about 12200 vehicles were sold less than that of the same period last year, which was about 64% of that of the same period last year. From the perspective of the top ten enterprises in sales volume in July, the number of enterprises achieving growth increased by 2 and decreased by 8, and the number of enterprises achieving growth increased by 1 compared with that in June. Futian and XCMG reaped growth in July, with year-on-year growth of 2% and 1%, respectively. XCMG has achieved growth for two consecutive months; The decline rate of the declining enterprises reached double digits. Among the top ten enterprises with sales volume, 3 enterprises had a decline of more than 40%. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline declined by 78% year-on-year in July. However, there were also enterprises such as beiben and Hanma technology whose decline rate was lower than the overall decline rate of the tractor market and outperformed the "market".
Like the heavy truck market, the sales volume of the tractor market declined month on month in July. Specifically, from the perspective of mainstream enterprises, the performance of the vast majority of enterprises in July was worse than that in June, and only one of the top ten heavy truck enterprises achieved a month on month growth, with an increase of 8%.
In July, no enterprise in the tractor market continued to sell more than 10000 vehicles, and no enterprise in the tractor market has sold more than 10000 vehicles for six consecutive months. In July, the total share of the top ten enterprises in tractor sales reached 98.96%, and the top ten enterprises only shared about 1%. In July, the monthly share of the top five enterprises in the sales volume of the tractor market exceeded 10%, and the total share reached 87.91%. The total share of the top five enterprises in the industry continued to exceed 85%, slightly expanding compared with the previous month (87. 62%).
From the cumulative sales volume, from January to July this year, the total sales volume of tractor market was 194700, a year-on-year decrease of 66%, which was slightly narrower than that of the previous six months (- 67%), a decrease of about 370000 compared with the same period last year, about 35% of the total sales volume of the same period last year. From the perspective of the top ten enterprises in terms of sales volume, all the 10 enterprises are in the decline range, and the cumulative decline has reached double digits. The decline of heavy truck, Foton, Universiade, XCMG, beiben, and Hanma technology is lower than 66% of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "market". Among them, the cumulative sales volume of Universiade, Hanma technology and XCMG decreased by 35%, 31% and 39% respectively from January to July this year, making them the only three enterprises in the top ten enterprises in terms of sales volume with a cumulative decline of less than 40%.
From the cumulative share, the total share of the top ten enterprises in sales volume reached 98.95%, the total share of the top five enterprises in sales volume reached 87.57%, and the total share of the industry's top 5 tractor market from January to July this year was nearly 90%. Among them, the shares of Jiefang and heavy truck both exceeded 20%, reaching 21.89% and 21.95% respectively, and the cumulative share gap was only 0.06%; Shaanxi Automobile, Futian and Dongfeng respectively shared 16.56%, 13.85% and 13.32% of the tractor market in the first seven months of this year. The gap between adjacent enterprises has not been widened. It is still very uncertain how to rank the top five in the industry.
From January to July this year, the cumulative share of heavy truck, Dayun, Futian, Shaanxi Automobile, Xugong, Hanma technology, beiben and other enterprises in the tractor market increased, among which, the cumulative share of heavy truck from January to July this year increased by 5.42 percentage points over the same period last year; This year, Dayun heavy truck maintained the top six in the monthly list for seven consecutive months in the tractor market. The "play" was very stable, and the cumulative share increased by 2.79% compared with the same period last year. In addition, the cumulative shares of Foton, Shaanxi Automobile, XCMG, beiben and Hanma technology from January to July this year increased by 2.11%, 1.38%, 0.66%, 0.45% and 0.54% respectively compared with the same period last year.
From the perspective of industry structure, the top ten members of the tractor market in July this year are the same as the top ten members in June, but the ranking has changed a lot: heavy truck jumped to the top from the fourth in June, which is the fourth time that heavy truck won the monthly ranking of the tractor market this year; Beiben rose from 8th to 7th in the monthly list in June, while SAIC Hongyan rose from 10th to 9th in the monthly list in June.
Like the heavy truck market, the tractor market achieved month on month growth in May and June for two consecutive months. However, it experienced month on month decline again in July and failed to achieve the long-awaited growth. From January to July of this year, the average sales volume of the tractor market was less than 28000. Although it was slightly better than the last few months of last year (the average monthly sales volume of tractor from August to December of 2021 was only 22300), it was still at a low level. In August 2021, the sales volume of the tractor market was only over 20000, which was the lowest month in the tractor market last year. The first "victory" of the tractor this year is likely to occur in August.
