The power battery market, which has attracted much attention from the market, has again started a wave.
Recently, Tesla CEO musk said at Tesla's 2022 shareholders' meeting that the weekly output of 4680 cylindrical batteries meets the expectation, and the company is confident to achieve mass production by the end of the year.
Not only Tesla, on August 8, Yiwei lithium energy released a revised version (hereinafter referred to as the "revised version"), saying that it would raise 9 billion yuan for power cylinder batteries. In addition, Panasonic, LG new energy and other enterprises are also promoting the industrialization of cylindrical batteries.
Wang Xuelei, power battery analyst of Shanghai Steel Union new energy business department, told the Securities Daily that with the follow-up of car enterprises and battery manufacturers, it is expected that the penetration rate of 4680 cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market will exceed 20% by 2025. This means that the proportion of cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market will be significantly increased.
Many enterprises layout cylindrical batteries
After Tesla officially announced that the 4680 cylindrical battery will be its main technical route in 2020, in February 2022, Tesla announced that the Fremont plant had produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and was first used in model y in the first quarter of 2022.
Musk also said at the shareholders' meeting a few days ago that Tesla's current cylindrical battery supply can meet the production demand of 1.5 million vehicles this year. In addition to building its own battery factory, Tesla also purchases batteries from suppliers.
Following Tesla's technical route, domestic enterprises are also accelerating the layout of cylindrical batteries.
According to the revised draft, the "lithium ion power battery project for passenger vehicles" proposed to be constructed by Yiwei lithium energy with 9 billion yuan is the 46 series large cylindrical battery. Yiwei lithium energy introduced through the revised draft that the 46 series large cylindrical batteries are the further development and extension of the company's original 18 series and 21 series cylindrical batteries. In addition, the revised draft also claims that only a few enterprises in the world have the industrialization capacity of 46 series cylindrical batteries.
As to why such a large-scale layout of cylindrical batteries, Yiwei lithium energy has said that cylindrical batteries have become the direction of the ultimate battery technology.
In fact, Panasonic, LG new energy and other leading power battery enterprises are also laying out 4680 cylindrical batteries and rapidly promoting mass production.
Panasonic and LG new energy both plan to mass produce 4680 batteries in 2023. Panasonic's plant in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan is introducing two production lines, and LG new energy has also begun to build a pilot production line.
A number of power battery enterprises actively deployed, which first stimulated the demand for equipment and materials.
Hangke technology recently said that in the first quarter of 2022, the company won the bid for overseas customer projects, and its profitability was improved. As the technology of key customers changes frequently and new lithium batteries such as 4680 batteries are gradually mass produced, it is difficult for the company to develop whether the lithium battery back-end equipment manufacturers can complete the technology change to meet the needs of various batteries and different manufacturers.
This further proves that power battery enterprises are constantly developing 4680 cylindrical batteries.
"The 4680 cylindrical battery has obvious advantages in terms of range and charging time. In addition, it has a larger single body, higher energy density and lower unit cost." Wang Xuelei told reporters that high nickel and high silicon materials can better highlight the advantages of the battery in terms of thermal performance. Therefore, the volume of 4680 cylindrical battery will help promote the expansion of the market of high nickel and high silicon battery materials.
Yin Zhongxin, an analyst at Everbright Securities, said that with the growth of Tesla's global sales and the penetration of 4680 batteries in three-dimensional battery models, it is expected that the sales of Tesla's models equipped with 4680 batteries will exceed 1.6 million in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of Tesla's total sales, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123gwh.
Yin Zhongxin believes that under the guidance and promotion of Tesla and many battery manufacturers, 4680 cylindrical batteries will achieve a rapid growth from 0 to 1 to N in the next five years, becoming the general trend of medium and high-end passenger car batteries, thus attracting more manufacturers to "enter".
The market pattern of power battery is afraid to change
From ternary lithium to lithium iron phosphate, to Kirin battery of Ningde era and blade battery of BYD, every innovation of power battery is aimed at further reducing cost and improving endurance.
The Kirin battery launched by Ningde times in June this year is suitable for ternary system and lithium iron phosphate system, so many people in the industry think that it can be compared with Tesla 4680 cylindrical battery and BYD blade battery.
However, no matter how the industry comments, the market will ultimately have the the final say on the technical route of power batteries.
On August 9, the automobile market research branch of China Automobile Circulation Association (hereinafter referred to as the "passenger car Association") released data that in July, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 564000, with a year-on-year increase of 123.7%, continuing the previous growth trend. On this basis, the China Federation of passenger cars believes that it is necessary to raise the previous forecast that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China will reach 5.5 million in 2022 to 6 million.
From the current market share of power battery, in the first half of 2022, Ningde times will lead the industry with an installed capacity of 70.9gwh and a market share of 34.9%.
Then, will the acceleration of industrialization of large cylindrical batteries shake the existing power battery market pattern?
"The application of cylindrical batteries in new energy vehicles has evolved from 18650 to 2170, and then to 4680. This process is mainly led by Tesla. Most domestic battery manufacturers use square battery structures." Qi hailing, President of Beijing Teyi sunshine new energy, told the Securities Daily that with the in-depth research of battery manufacturers in Japan, South Korea and China on 4680 cylindrical batteries, the ability to tackle key technological problems has been enhanced, and the scale of production capacity investment will also be enlarged. Although there are still some difficulties in the process technology of 4680 cylindrical battery for domestic battery manufacturers, it is the product of industry upgrading and iteration after all, and powerful battery manufacturers want to conquer and take the lead.
Yin Zhongxin also said that the innovation of 4680 cylindrical battery will promote the innovation of the whole lithium battery industry chain. Its original intention is to improve energy density and reduce battery cost, which also solves the "pain point" of lithium battery for many years to a certain extent. The efficiency improvement and cost reduction brought by technological innovation are expected to further promote the penetration of global electric vehicles.
