Since 2022, in the face of the severe and complex international environment and the arduous tasks of reform, development and stability, the machinery industry has conscientiously implemented the deployment of the central economic work conference and the government work report, adhered to the principle of "stability" and made progress while maintaining stability, and achieved a good start in the operation of the industry. In the second quarter, under the impact and influence of unexpected factors such as the rebound of the domestic epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine, the downward pressure on the industry suddenly increased. In April, the main economic indicators fell sharply, and the operation deviated from the normal track. The machinery industry as a whole has moved quickly, resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and in accordance with the requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safe development, solidly promoted the industry's economic operation within a reasonable range. In May, the decline of major economic indicators narrowed, and in June, the industry resumed normal growth. The industry's operation achieved a stable recovery and turned from negative to positive in a short time, Showing the growth potential and development toughness of the machinery industry.
We are soberly aware that the foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the current industrial economy is not solid enough, there are many uncertain factors in the operation, and the development situation is still complex. At the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it was proposed to consolidate the good trend of economic recovery, strive to stabilize employment and prices, and maintain economic operation within a reasonable range. We should maintain strategic concentration and firmly do our own work. We believe that with the gradual implementation and effectiveness of various policies and measures introduced by the state to stabilize the economy and help enterprises to relieve difficulties, the whole industry is full of confidence in achieving the expected goals at the beginning of the year.
Information Conference on economic operation situation of machinery industry in the first half of 2022
Information Conference on economic operation situation of machinery industry in the first half of 2022
Operation of machinery industry in the first half of the year
（1） The added value increased slightly
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 0.7% year-on-year. Although it was still 2.7 and 2.1 percentage points lower than the national industry and manufacturing industry, it ended the situation of continuous decline in April and may. From the perspective of single month growth rate, the added value of the machinery industry showed a double-digit decline in April, narrowed to less than 3% in May, and rapidly recovered to an increase of 8.2% in June, which was higher than the growth rate of the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period, showing a "V" shaped rebound and effectively coping with the downward pressure. The machinery industry mainly involves five major categories of national economy. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of added value increased by 3% and decreased by 2%. The added value of special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and instrument manufacturing increased by 4.1%, 9.7% and 4.1% respectively year on year. The added value of general equipment and automobile manufacturing decreased by 2.7% and 1.9%.
（2） The production and marketing situation of the products has gradually recovered
Among the 120 main products monitored by the machinery industry, 79 products, accounting for 65.8%, had a cumulative output decline in the first half of the year; There were 41 products with increased output, accounting for 34.2%. According to the data of that month, the number of products with increased output in May and June has gradually picked up, and the varieties with increased output in June have nearly half. The production and sales of main products showed the following characteristics: first, the automobile manufacturing industry quickly got rid of the impact of the epidemic. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.117 million and 12.057 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% and 6.6%; Among them, the production and sales volume in June have recovered to about 2.5 million vehicles, with a month on month increase of about 30% and a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. Driven by the recovery of automobile production and sales, the output of automobile engines, molds, pneumatic components and other products in June changed from negative to positive. Second, energy storage products maintained growth. In the first half of the year, the output of solar cells (photovoltaic cells), lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries and other products all achieved a high growth rate. Third, the upgrading of equipment in the raw material industry led to the growth of the output of relevant production equipment. The output of special equipment for oil refining and chemical production, metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment reached double digits. Fourth, the driving effect of infrastructure construction on investment products has begun to appear. In June, the output of special cement equipment increased by 20.83% year-on-year from negative to positive, with a quarter on quarter increase of 25.31%; The total sales volume of 12 construction machinery products increased by 7.8% month on month, of which the sales volume of excavator, loader and bulldozer increased by 0.7%, 3.6% and 2.1% month on month respectively. Fifthly, the production of agricultural machinery products showed a downward trend. The output of 8 of the 10 monitoring products decreased, but the industrial concentration of tractor products was further improved.
（3） The capacity utilization rate was lower than that of the same period of the previous year
The epidemic situation in the second quarter and the resulting logistics problems have seriously affected the production order in important production areas of the machinery industry, and the decline in operating rate has led to a decline in capacity utilization. In the first half of the year, the capacity utilization rates of general equipment, special equipment, automobile and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries were 78.8%, 77.7%, 70.7% and 76.6% respectively; Compared with the same period of the previous year, it decreased by 2.1, 3.6, 5.5 and 4.8 percentage points respectively. Among the four major industries, only the capacity utilization rate of the automobile manufacturing industry is lower than the national industrial capacity utilization rate.
（4） The operating income increased slightly and the decrease in total profit narrowed
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the machinery industry realized a total operating income of 12.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.44%; The total profit was 735.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. In the first half of the year, the operating income profit rate of the machinery industry was 5.68%, down 0.68 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of operating revenue and total profit of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was 3.66 and 6.84 percentage points lower, respectively, and the profit rate of operating revenue was 0.85 percentage points lower. However, in June, the two indicators of operating revenue and total profit of the machinery industry quickly stabilized, with year-on-year growth of 14.73% and 29.27% respectively, both higher than the national industry in the same period.
（5） Differentiation of operation trend by industry
In the first half of the year, the operating income of the machinery industry and non automobile industry reached 8.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, 4.86 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the machinery industry; The total profit was 523.876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.17%, 9.97 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the machinery industry. Driven by energy storage and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, the operating income of the electrical and electrical industry increased by 26.72%, and the total profit increased by 22.58%. Driven by abrasive products manufacturing, the operating income of the machine tool industry increased by 20.58%, and the total profit increased by 74.03%, which played an important role in stabilizing the industry operation; Due to the decline of domestic market demand and sales slowdown, the operating revenue and total profit of the construction machinery industry decreased by 22.74% and 65.23% respectively. The internal combustion engine industry was affected by the sluggish production and sales of automobile, construction machinery, agricultural machinery and other host industries, and the operating revenue and total profit decreased by 24.35% and 49.99% respectively. As the largest sub industry of the machinery industry, the operation of the automobile industry suffered a significant impact in the first half of the year. The total operating income and profit reached 4.11 trillion yuan and 211.564 billion yuan respectively, with negative growth year-on-year, down 3.69% and 23.86% respectively.
（6） Fixed asset investment rebounded at a low level
Affected by the low base in the previous two years, the fixed asset investment in the machinery industry has shown a high growth rate since this year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the fixed assets investment in general equipment, special equipment, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment, and instrument manufacturing industry, which are mainly involved in the machinery industry, increased by 20.8%, 16.4%, 8.9%, 36.7% and 36.1% respectively. In the past three years, the average growth rate was 3.1%, 9.3%, 12.1% and 19.2% respectively in the fixed assets investment of general equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and instrument manufacturing industry, and the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 5.6%.
（7） Foreign trade exports grew steadily
In the first half of the year, China's machinery industry realized a total import and export volume of 511.36 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.99% year-on-year. Among them, the total export volume was 344.12 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 10.41%, achieving double-digit growth; The total import volume was US $167.24 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%; The trade surplus reached US $176.88 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 34.4%. The growth of the trade surplus has played a positive role in the steady growth of the machinery industry. From the perspective of specific products, automobile, engineering machinery and other products performed prominently. In the first half of the year, the export of complete vehicles exceeded 1.2 million, with a year-on-year increase of 41.4%; The export of excavators exceeded 75000, and the export of loaders was nearly 40000, up 60% and 11.4% respectively year-on-year.
Highlights of industry operation in the first half of the year
（1） Quick start, return to work, and see results
The epidemics in Changchun, Shanghai and other places have seriously impacted the normal operation of the automobile manufacturing industry. With the joint efforts of all parties, scientific epidemic prevention and accurate prevention and control were carried out, and the resumption of work and production was quickly started. With the help of relevant departments, FAW Group took effective measures to implement the responsibility of epidemic prevention and make sufficient preparations for the rapid resumption of work and production. On April 13, Hongqi Weishan factory took the lead in starting the resumption of production. Through the establishment of a disease-free factory, the "point-to-point" transfer of employees and semi closed operation, the enterprise's resumption of work and production was rapidly and orderly promoted in batches and regions. Since May 1, the relevant production bases have successively started the double shift production mode to maximize the production load and strive to achieve stable and full production. SAIC Group started preparations for resumption of work and production in time, declared to enter the "white list" enterprises, established a complete closed production plan, and opened up "point-to-point" transportation in the closed area with the help of relevant departments. The pressure test for resumption of work and production began in late April. Since May 27, the whole vehicle enterprises have successively started double shift production to improve production capacity. Since June 1, the group's affiliated enterprises have actively promoted the comprehensive resumption of work of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industrial chain and supply chain. According to the data of the Automobile Association, China's automobile output in May and June increased by 59.7% and 29.7% respectively, and the production in June has basically returned to the normal level. The rapid start-up and resumption of production of the automobile industry and the realization of capacity improvement have played an important role in stabilizing the operation of the machinery industry in the first half of the year.
（2） New industries play a positive role in stabilizing growth
In the first half of the year, the relevant industries of the strategic emerging industries of the machinery industry realized a total operating income of 10.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.14%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the average level of the machinery industry; The total profit was 563.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, 3.4 percentage points lower than the average level of the machinery industry. From the perspective of proportion, the proportion of operating revenue and total profit of strategic emerging industries in the machinery industry in the first half of the year was 79.3% and 76.64%, respectively, up 3.38 and 2.67 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The production and sales of representative new energy vehicles in the first half of the year exceeded 2.6 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and a market share of 21.6%; In June, the production and sales volume of the month was close to 600000, hitting a new record.
（3） High quality joint construction of "the Belt and Road"
Although affected by the Ukrainian crisis and the global epidemic, the machinery industry continues to implement the "the Belt and Road" initiative and create high-quality development. In the first half of the year, the export of machinery industry to countries along the "the Belt and Road" was 157.23 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The second overseas unit of China's independent third-generation nuclear power hualong-1, pakistan karachi K3 unit, which is provided with nuclear island, conventional island and other main equipment by Shanghai Electric, passed the acceptance. The first overseas project of hualong-1 was fully completed and put into operation. It is of great significance to optimize the energy structure of Pakistan and promote the construction of "the Belt and Road". The world's largest 130 ton all terrain crane developed by XCMG is exported to Europe and will be used in the largest new energy power generation project in Bosnia and Herzegovina - ivovik wind power project, to help the local clean energy development. Dongfang Electric Group and Formosa Plastics Group signed a contract for the gas system transformation project of Hanoi steel plant in Vietnam. After the transformation, the use of primary energy of Hanoi project will be greatly reduced, providing assistance for the green and low-carbon development of Vietnam.
（4） Boost low-carbon transformation of energy supply system
Faced with multiple challenges in the first half of the year, the energy equipment manufacturing industry bucked the trend, with operating revenue increasing by 20.99% year-on-year and total profit increasing by 15.65%, significantly higher than the growth rate of industry, manufacturing and machinery industry by more than 10 percentage points. The machinery industry implements the "double carbon" strategy and provides green power for building a new energy supply system based on clean energy. The No. 4 unit of changlongshan pumped storage power station, the No. 4 unit of Yimeng pumped storage power station, the No. 4 unit of Meizhou pumped storage power station and the No. 4 unit of Huanggou Pumped Storage Power station independently developed by Dongfang Electric Group have been put into operation successively, indicating that the design, manufacturing and installation quality of China's pumped storage units and the construction management level of pumped storage power stations have reached the world's leading level. The successful hoisting of the first 11mw wind turbine on the "Haiyan" platform of Shanghai Electric Group marks that China's offshore wind power has officially entered the era of more than 10MW, opening a new chapter in China's offshore wind power market. The wind power generation system developed by Shaangu group was successfully installed in the first phase of the innovation and entrepreneurship Industrial Park of Yushen industrial zone. It can generate power under the condition of less than four levels of wind power and improve the utilization rate of wind energy. As the equipment development and supply enterprise, Harbin Electric Power Group, the world's first non supplementary combustion compressed air energy storage power station - Jiangsu Jintan salt cavern compressed air energy storage national test demonstration project, has completed the trial operation of the whole set of equipment and is ready for commercial operation.
（5） Help the green development of the user industry
The equipment supply capacity of the machinery industry continued to improve, helping the green development and transformation of the user industry. The world's first 145 MW supercritical gas generator set, which is independently developed by China and has completely independent intellectual property rights, has been put into operation in Guangxi Shenglong Metallurgy Co., Ltd., which has set a number of world records such as operating pressure, temperature and power generation efficiency. It has important exploration significance for promoting green transformation and low-carbon development of the metallurgical industry. The 1150mm acid rolling unit of dry steel produced by China first heavy industry Co., Ltd. was successfully commissioned. The unit is equipped with environmental protection equipment such as dust removal and mill pollution purification, providing high-yield, high-efficiency, energy-saving and environmental protection production equipment for the iron and steel industry. Sany group launched a full range of electric port equipment such as electric front crane, electric stacker, electric container truck, electric steel grabbing (feeding) machine and electric heavy-duty forklift, helping China's port industry to implement green ecological and intelligent transformation. Aolitong crane developed the world's first "three bag combined lifting" intelligent ton bag crane, which increased the production efficiency by 3 times and saved 70% of labor, helping to improve the energy efficiency in the automatic loading and unloading field of food, chemical, mining, smelting and other industries.
（6） Improving the safety of the industrial chain by "making up for weaknesses"
Aiming at the problems of sticking points and breakpoints in the industrial chain, the achievements of the mechanical industry's solid and stable chain are frequent. The supporting 51.2mw synchronous motor for blast furnace fan developed by Shanghai Electric Group and applied to Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Metal Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, breaking the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in this field. The first set of electric drive high-pressure centrifugal gas storage compressor unit in China developed by Shengu group was successfully put into trial operation in Shuangtaizi gas storage of Liaohe Oilfield, which solved the problem of "stuck neck" of gas storage centrifugal compressor and added a new power to China's natural gas storage project. The large-scale five axis combined turning and milling machining center developed by spark machine tool has been put into use. It is used for the one-time clamping and processing of complex parts such as marine medium and high-speed diesel engines, camshafts, rocker arms and pistons, and has solved the problem of "necking" in the processing of key parts of marine diesel engines in China.
Difficulties and problems in industry operation
（1） The price of raw materials continues to be high, and the pressure of industrial costs rises
Since the beginning of this year, the price trend of the main raw materials and products used in the machinery industry has been differentiated, the steel price has gradually stabilized, and the non-ferrous metal price has fluctuated at a high level. According to national statistics, the purchase prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wire producers are still rising. In June, they increased by 7.6% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, they increased by 13.5%, which is significantly higher than the increase of about 2% in the producer price index of the machinery industry. In addition, the prices of some key raw materials, such as rare earth and magnetic materials for the low-voltage electrical industry and lithium raw materials for the energy storage industry, have doubled. The purchase prices of raw materials and spare parts of machinery enterprises have risen, and the cost pressure has been increasing. According to the special survey of key contact enterprises, 86% of the surveyed enterprises reported that the purchase price of raw materials has risen this year, and 83% of the enterprises reported that the rise of raw material prices is one of the main sources of pressure on enterprise operating costs.
（2） The recovery of market demand lags behind and the pressure of insufficient orders increases
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of national investment in equipment, tools and instruments, which is closely related to the market demand of mechanical products, was only 2.4%, 3.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate of national fixed assets investment in the same period. According to the data of key contact enterprises in the machinery industry, since the beginning of this year, the accumulated orders of enterprises have continued to grow negatively year-on-year, with a decrease of more than 13% in April and may, and a decrease of 9.82% in June. In the past two months, the recovery of the production side was faster than the recovery of the demand side, and the pressure of insufficient orders of manufacturing enterprises increased. According to the survey, by the end of June, 45% of the enterprises' orders on hand had dropped year-on-year, and nearly 20% of the enterprises' orders had dropped by double digits; Compared with the survey at the beginning of the year, the proportion of enterprises with decreased orders increased by 20%.
（3） The problem of difficult payment recovery continues
The problem of difficult payment recovery continues to perplex the machinery industry, which is manifested in the continuous high total amount of accounts receivable and the increasing trend of bills receivable. By the end of June, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry had increased to 6.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, which was significantly higher than the growth of operating income in the same period. According to the special survey, in the first half of the year, 59% of the surveyed enterprises had a year-on-year increase in accounts receivable, and 22% of the enterprises had a double-digit increase; 50% of enterprise bills receivable increased year-on-year, and 17% of enterprises achieved double-digit growth. For the prediction of the second half of the year, half of the enterprises expect that the difficulty of account recovery will be the same as the current one, 47% of the enterprises expect that the difficulty of recovery will increase, and only 3% of the enterprises expect to improve.
Prediction of annual operation trend of machinery industry
With the support of various national policies and through the joint efforts of the whole industry, the operation of the machinery industry achieved a stable recovery in June, laying a good foundation for the completion of the expected objectives of the whole year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, factors favorable to the operation and development of the machinery industry will be released in succession.
First, the effectiveness of policies and measures related to steady growth was further demonstrated. We have implemented the State Council's package of policies to stabilize the economy. Various regions and departments have introduced a number of measures to stabilize the economic operation, expand domestic demand, promote consumption, and moderately advance infrastructure construction investment. Meanwhile, major strategies, major projects and major projects specified in the "14th five year plan" have been started one after another, providing strong support for the steady growth of the machinery industry at the macro level and the market level.
Second, market expectations improved and enterprise confidence rebounded. 5. The rapid recovery of production in June effectively promoted the improvement of enterprise expectations and the recovery of confidence. The survey shows that most enterprises' expectations of operating income and realized profits in the second half of the year are higher than the actual completion in the first half of the year.
Third, the trend of the automobile industry is improving. The automobile industry accounts for a large proportion of the total scale of the machinery industry and has a significant impact on the operation of the industry. Recently, the central and local governments have successively introduced measures to promote automobile consumption, which has strongly promoted the stabilization and improvement of the automobile industry. In the second half of the year, the automobile industry will play an important role in supporting the smooth operation of the machinery industry.
However, it should be noted that the pressure on the machinery industry to achieve stable operation in the second half of the year still exists, which requires close attention.
First, the international political and economic situation remains complex and faces multiple risks; The foundation of domestic economic recovery is not stable, and it is in a critical period of recovery.
Second, the aggregate demand in the domestic market is shrinking, the market expectation is unstable, and the growth momentum of consumption and investment is weak. The impact of the epidemic has increased the "triple pressure" in the short term, posing a great challenge to the stable growth of the machinery industry.
Third, the international trade logistics is not smooth and the global supply chain situation is still tight, which makes the foreign trade environment of the machinery industry more severe.
According to comprehensive analysis, with the gradual implementation and implementation of the package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, the COVID-19 epidemic has been effectively controlled. The economic operation of the machinery industry will gradually pick up in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve stable growth throughout the year. The growth rate of industrial added value and operating income will reach about 5.5% expected at the beginning of the year. The total profit level will be the same as that of the previous year, and the import and export trade will remain stable on the whole.
This year is the year of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. In the face of the continuously evolving global epidemic and the complex and severe internal and external economic environment, the whole machinery industry will resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic development, maintain strategic determination, do its own thing well, stabilize the basic economic situation of the machinery industry, and take practical actions to welcome the successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
