Under the influence of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, China's industry and national economy have been greatly affected. As the central government has successively issued a series of policies and measures to support epidemic prevention and control, and promote the resumption of production and production, the country has initially shown a situation in which the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, and the production and living order has accelerated.
In the first quarter, what is the overall situation of China ’s industrial economy? In the face of the severe epidemic, what effective measures should be taken to revitalize the industrial economy? On the afternoon of April 15, a “China ’s industrial economic operation” with the theme of “Responding to the epidemic and rejuvenating the industrial economy” The live broadcast of the "Situation Analysis Online Forum" was carried out in the live broadcast room of China Industry News. Over 40,000 netizens participated online and interacted.
At the forum, Li Yizhong, chairman of the China Federation of Industrial Economics, gave a keynote report "In response to the severe impact of the epidemic, we must give full play to the key role of investment." Lu Chengjun, Deputy Director of the Operational Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Qu Weixi, Vice President of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed the domestic industrial economic situation and foreign trade in the first quarter. Li Shousheng, President of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, Chen Bin, Executive Vice President of China Machinery Industry Federation, Cai Jin, Vice President of China Logistics and Procurement Federation, Yang Kun, Executive Vice Chairman of China Electricity Council, China Automotive Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the Industrial Association, and Pan Guangcheng, executive chairman of the China Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association, gave wonderful speeches on the economic operation of key industries. The forum was chaired by Xu Jinbao, Secretary of the Party Committee and President of China Industry News and Director of the Industrial Economic Research Center of China Industry and Economic Union.
Industrial enterprises hit by the epidemic should give full play to the key role of investment
Li Yizhong said, "The epidemic hits the industrial economy hard, and we should give full play to the key role of investment, strengthen the construction of new infrastructure, and contribute to the recovery and revitalization of the industrial economy.
In Li Yizhong's view, market trends should be highly valued during the epidemic. It should be noted that the factors that affect the resumption of production and production of enterprises, one is people, the other is the industrial chain, the third is logistics and transportation, and the fourth is capital. "The more important issue is the unpredictable and latent crisis in the domestic and foreign markets in the coming months and even next year. Old orders can be resumed, but if there are no new orders, what will be done after resumption will be a more serious challenge. Therefore, it is necessary to fully estimate the difficulty of recovering and revitalizing the industrial economy after the epidemic. "
Li Yizhong pointed out, "To fully play the key role of effective investment," new infrastructure "is an important measure." "New infrastructure" refers to the construction of new infrastructure, with distinctive characteristics of the times: First, new technologies, the information age requires the use of new A round of high-tech, especially a new generation of information technology and its sub-items and sub-items, these technologies must be materialized into infrastructure. The second is new demand, and the new infrastructure is the cornerstone, tools and weapons. For example, in the prevention and control of epidemics and resumption of production, digital infrastructure highlights the support and support functions. The third is a new mechanism. The "new infrastructure" is based on the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, and the cross-border integration of the electronic information industry and vertical industries.
Li Yizhong emphasized the need to "actively and steadily, accurately and orderly develop new infrastructure construction." Blind investment and repeated construction should be prevented. Overall coordination and macro-control should be carried out. New infrastructure projects generally have the characteristics of long construction cycle, slow investment recovery, and low direct return rate. They must make scientific and prudent decisions. Guard against debt risks; it should be combined with a new round of technological transformation of enterprises.
"The total investment of the" new infrastructure "is not large, but its" multiplier effect "is large. To calculate the direct benefit of the project, we must also see the contribution to society and industry, that is, the spillover benefit, and compare the input and output. Follow the dual constraints of efficiency and finance to conduct cost and benefit analysis. To ensure advanced and reliable technology, and to make good market demand forecasts, it can be appropriately advanced but must be within our ability. "Li Yizhong analysis," Enterprise industry is the main body of investment, each Enterprises should integrate, cooperate and build together. Private investment accounts for 62% of total fixed asset investment, of which manufacturing accounts for 87%, but private capital accounts for only 20% to 38% of infrastructure investment, especially in infrastructure construction. The new infrastructure 'will be more open to private capital and do real PPP.'
Recovery has a long way to go, and some economic indicators are positive in March
The sudden outbreak of new coronary pneumonia has had a huge impact on China's economic and social operations. "In the first quarter, the main feature of the industrial economy was that industrial growth slowed down, but important materials maintained growth; production in the process-oriented industry was generally stable, and supply in the midstream and downstream industries showed positive changes; production order accelerated to recover, and the economic prosperity of the industry rebounded Lu Chengjun, deputy director of the Operational Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: "Integrating all aspects, the positive factors for the industrial economic operation have been increasing since March, the utilization rate of capacity in key industries has gradually recovered, and the industrial economic operation is significantly better than that. In the first two months, we expect the decline in the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the first quarter to be significantly narrower than in the previous two months, but still remain in a relatively large range of negative growth. "
Lu Chengjun revealed that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will comprehensively do a good job of the "six stability", promote the economic order to recover as soon as possible, and focus on three key tasks. "One is to accurately and orderly promote the resumption of production and production in the manufacturing industry; the second is to actively expand effective demand; the third is to continue to promote the reform of 'delegating services'."
According to Qu Weixi, deputy dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has impacted the Chinese economy from both the demand side and the supply side. The biggest impact is that the economic cycle is blocked, and China's comprehensive economic recovery has a long way to go.
"Overall, the major impact and negative impact of the epidemic on China ’s world factory status and economic and social development are exogenous, short-term, and periodic. The basic trajectory and overall situation of China ’s economic operation will not change. The medium- and long-term growth trend of the Chinese economy will not change. With the effective control of the epidemic, China's foreign trade growth is expected to return to the normal track determined by fundamentals and achieve restorative growth. "Qu Weixi said.
Qu Weixi also reminded that "the current global epidemic is showing a rapid epidemic situation, and the uncertainty of the epidemic has become the biggest external uncertainty of China's foreign trade development. At the same time, China's foreign trade development is facing the rise of trade protectionism, the weakening of domestic factor cost advantages, some Multinational companies are adjusting the global production capacity layout and other challenges. We must seek for the times and the situation, and do everything possible to stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade. "
Li Shousheng, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, analyzed that insufficient market demand is the main contradiction in resuming production and revitalizing the economy. Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, people's demand for consumer goods has become more rational, and the market's demand for means of production has generally slowed down. At present, global crude oil prices have fluctuated greatly, and the prices of products in the chemical industry have fallen sharply. Some product prices have shown a downward trend. Import and export demand also showed a sharp decline. "At present, the most realistic and core contradiction for enterprises to resume work and production is the contradiction of market demand. Without market demand, there will be no economic development, and no economic prosperity."
Regarding how to deal with the problem of insufficient market demand, Li Shousheng said, "Exploiting new products, researching and developing new technologies, and creating new demands are the top priorities for resuming production and revitalizing the economy. We hope to develop new products through cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. New technology and new market demand. Under the circumstances of changing market demand, we must make every effort to develop a batch of advanced, super high and practical new technologies. At the same time, the ability to develop market demand is also the touchstone for testing the competitiveness of the industry. "
Cai Jin, deputy chairman of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the current Chinese economy has seen a turning point in recovery. From the perspective of the logistics industry, it has recovered to a level that can support the normal operation of the economy. He said that from the March PMI index, new orders are at a recent high, and the industry chain is recovering. The logistics prosperity index has recovered to more than 51%, and the logistics that serve economic operations are basically smooth.
"But on the whole, uncertain factors of economic operation still exist. First, the impact of the uncertainty of the global economy and international trade on the Chinese economy needs to be fully paid attention to. Second, the situation of resumption of production and resumption of SMEs is still grim and requires financial support. Orders and demand also need to be transmitted to small and medium-sized enterprises; third, the degree of differentiation in the industry's recovery is obvious, and the lagging recovery of the service industry affects the market's terminal demand; fourth, the supply chain still needs to be opened, and a complete industrial and value chain must be formed through the supply chain Make every effort to maintain the smoothness of the global industrial chain. "Cai Jin said.
Benefits of major industries have fallen sharply
Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the production and operation of the machinery industry suffered a major impact, and the main economic indicators fell across the board. Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said, "The resumption of work in the machinery industry has been fully promoted, but difficulties and problems still exist."
Chen Bin revealed that the current main points of obstruction in the economic operation and resumption of production in the machinery industry are: the flow of people is restricted; the industrial chain is not well connected, and the supply of spare parts is insufficient; the transportation is still not smooth and the time limit is extended; companies face multiple pressures and funds The chain is tight. The main difficulties are: contract fulfillment and continuation are difficult, orders are lost more; raw material procurement costs and logistics costs increase; foreign trade is impacted, and the impact of international epidemics will increase; insufficient anti-epidemic items affect employees to work; domestic and foreign investments are unable to Wait normally.
"In the short term, the overall operation of the industry will still be in a gradual recovery stage. It is expected that the main economic indicators of the machinery industry will decline by about 20% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the production and operation order of enterprises will accelerate recovery, and market demand will also rebound to a certain extent. See, it is expected that the industry will return to normal order in the second half of the year, and the growth rate is significantly higher than in the first half of the year. "Chen Bin said.
The latest data from the China Electricity Council shows that as of the end of March, the resumption rate of the power industry has exceeded 95%, and major power grid and power generation companies have reached 100%, providing strong power protection for epidemic prevention and control and serving economic and social development.
"The impact of the epidemic on electricity consumption has clearly declined in March, and the scale of daily electricity consumption at the end of March has been estimated to have returned to the level of the same period of the previous year. According to preliminary judgment, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole society in April is expected to achieve positive growth. Social power consumption has achieved medium-low growth, and the growth rate has rebounded by about 9 percentage points from the first quarter. "Yang Kun, executive deputy chairman of the China Electricity Council.
In his view, under the influence of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, policy support for financing of power companies should be increased to support the sustainable development of power companies; the time limit for new energy on-grid tariffs and other relevant policies should be appropriately extended. "It is recommended that the relevant government departments extend the time limit for the requirements for" onshore wind power commissioning at the end of 2020 and offshore wind power commissioning at the end of 2021 "in the" Notice on Improving the On-grid Tariff Policy "based on the impact of the epidemic; , Biomass power generation appropriately relaxes the time limit for commissioning and provides necessary guarantees for project safety, quality, and investment efficiency. "Yang Kun said.
Under the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the downward pressure on the automobile industry is unprecedented. Problems such as insufficient demand in the automobile market and stagnation in consumption have become prominent, which has seriously affected the further recovery of production.
"Affected by the epidemic, the scale of automobile production and sales fell sharply year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, the decline in passenger car sales is still relatively large, and new energy continues to decline year-on-year." Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. However, he also believes that the long-term stable development trend of the automotive industry has not changed, and there is still much room for the future market. After adjustment and optimization, China's auto market will gradually recover and maintain steady growth.
"After the epidemic is over, the suppressed consumer demand will be released in a short period of time. Judging from the preparation of various national policies and the efforts of the automobile industry, the automobile market will usher in a small peak in consumption. It is expected that the decline in production and sales in the first half of the year will shrink to About 25%. In the second half of the year, automobile production and sales are expected to return to the same period last year, or even higher than the same period last year. However, we must also see the spread of the international epidemic, which will bring greater uncertainty to the country. "Fu Bingfeng predicted.
Better than the national industry average, the performance of China's pharmaceutical industry in the fight against epidemics is remarkable. "In January-February, although the completion of the economic indicators of the pharmaceutical industry enterprises is not beautiful, it is still better than the national industry average." Pan Guangcheng, executive chairman of the China Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association, said.
From January to February, the operating income of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 335.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%, which was 9.1 percentage points lower than the national industry average drop; the realized profit was 43.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, which was 27.3 percentage points lower than the national industry average . Among them, the operating income of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry was 170.44 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year; the realized profit was 22.4 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year. Biopharmaceutical manufacturing is the only industry with positive growth in operating income and profit in each sub-sector of the pharmaceutical industry.
"At present, more than 90% of the pharmaceutical industry enterprises have resumed production and production. In order to win the fight against the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, three suggestions are proposed: first, to ensure the production and supply of raw materials; second, to strengthen the development of new drugs; Transformation and upgrading. "Pan Guangcheng said," To overcome major disasters is inseparable from scientific development and technological innovation. It is necessary to speed up the process of drug research and development, especially to accelerate the research of new detection reagents, antibody drugs and vaccines. "
