A few days ago, news of the price increase of excavators swept through the circle of friends, small digging rose 10%, medium and large digging rose 5%. Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG and other key enterprises have published price increase information in the form of letters to users, and related media have forwarded it to attract more attention. According to the current public reports, the editor has compiled the following information for reference by colleagues in the industry.
China's excavator sales record a new record
According to statistics released by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in March 2020, a total of 49,408 sets of various excavation machinery products were sold nationwide. In March last year, the nationwide sales of excavators set a record 44278 units at that time, and the latest data for this year increased by 11.6% on the basis of the original record. The data shows that of the 49,408 sets of excavation machinery products sold in March, the domestic market sales volume was 46,610 units, accounting for the vast majority, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year; the export sales volume was 2,798 units, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year.
The excavator is regarded as the vane of the construction machinery industry. Previously in January and February of this year, the domestic market excavator sales were 7,758 and 6,909 units, down 23.5% and 60% year-on-year, respectively. The excavator sales rebounded in March, which not only conformed to the objective law of increasing construction after warmer weather, but also reflected to a certain extent that the impact of the epidemic tended to dissipate, and demand was released and accelerated.
Guoyuan Securities Research reported that from the sales structure of excavators in March, the sales growth rate of large / medium / small excavators was 3.66%, -0.03% and 18.49% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of small excavators was particularly prominent. This type of product is mainly used in rural construction, house reconstruction, and other sites where investment is small. The sales volume is high and the response to the resumption of work is the fastest.
Excavator market competition landscape
In terms of market share, the top five companies selling excavators in March were: Sany, Xugong, Caterpillar, Shandong Lingong and Liugong. What is worth noting is that Zoomlion's rapid development is well-known in the market share list.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the market concentration of the excavator market and the proportion of domestic investment have further increased. In March, CR3, CR5, and CR10 in the excavator industry were 51.94%, 68.53%, and 87.75%, respectively, an increase of 2.40, 3.58, and 2.26 percentage points year-on-year. In March, domestic brands in the excavator industry accounted for 69.91%, a year-on-year increase of 8.49%. Among foreign brands, the European, American, Japanese, and Korean brands accounted for 13.07%, 8.56%, and 8.46%, down 0.84, 4.44, and 3.21 percent year-on-year respectively.
The top five companies with sales of excavators in March were: (1) Sany: Sales: 12,800 units, ranking first in the industry, an increase of 14.20% year-on-year, market share of 25.91%, an increase of 0.59%. (2) XCMG: 8,403 units, ranking second, a year-on-year increase of 34.71%, and a market share of 17.01%, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. (3) Caterpillar: 4,459 units, third, a slight decrease of 0.67% year-on-year, with a market share of 9.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%. (4) SDLG: 4,102 units, the fourth, a year-on-year increase of 55.20%, a market share of 8.30%, a year-on-year increase of 2.33%. (5) Liugong: 4096 units, fifth, a year-on-year increase of 24.69%, a market share of 8.29%, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%.
In addition, Zoomlion sold 1,392 excavators in March, with a market share of 2.82%. After the start of the earthwork business in 2019, the growth trend is gratifying.
The epidemic compresses the construction period and the investment intensity increases
The new crown epidemic that has continued to spread from before the Spring Festival has had a large negative impact on China's macro economy. The pressure on the government to grow steadily throughout the year has increased, and infrastructure is expected to become an important means of counter-cyclical adjustment. Since the epidemic, the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission have revealed that they will expand the scale of special real estate debt. The special debt is expected to be tilted towards infrastructure projects in terms of scale and structure, driving the growth of infrastructure investment throughout the year.
According to the general situation, after the Spring Festival is the concentration period for infrastructure construction, but this year affected by the epidemic, the actual construction period was compressed for at least one month, coupled with policy-driven, resulting in increased actual investment intensity this year, driving more demand for construction machinery, because the same The amount of investment will require more construction machinery and equipment in a shorter period of time, not to mention that some new construction projects need to be started.
Predicted that the annual excavator growth will be greater
Some media predict that the domestic and foreign sales of excavators will show different characteristics throughout the year: (1) Domestic demand will be considered for update on the background of the average monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment and real estate development investment of 16.73% and 10.84% respectively. The demand for replacement is expected to grow at a faster rate in domestic sales. (2) Exports are expected to further reflect the impact of the epidemic from the second quarter, and the export growth rate has been revised down from more than 30% to 20%. It may now be further reduced to zero growth. The implicit assumption here is that the overseas epidemic will end at the end of the second quarter Before being able to control it, the overseas market will gradually return to normal in the third and fourth quarters. In 2019, the domestic sales, export sales, and total sales of the excavator industry were 20.91, 2.66, and 235,700 units, and the domestic sales, export sales, and total sales of the excavator industry were expected to be 23, 2.66, and 256,600 units in 2020, and the total domestic sales A year-on-year increase of 8.87%.
Forecast of sales of excavators in April: Since March 15th, sales have risen rapidly, and some models have begun to be out of stock. With the recovery rate of key projects basically in place, it is expected that the sales of excavators in April will be comparable to that in March Flat, this will be historic, because in previous years, March was the high point of the year, and it may also be a high point in April this year. It is expected that the sales volume of the excavator industry in April will increase by about 55% year-on-year.
Colleagues in the machine tool industry can further pay attention to relevant information in the user field and adjust their own development strategies in a timely manner.
