In the first quarter that has just passed, while the prevention and control of the epidemic situation has been carried out nationwide, the speed of resuming work and production has continued to accelerate. Among the various indicators that reflect this economic change trend, there is a very unique "excavator index", which uses big data and Internet of Things technology to connect the sales and use of large construction machinery with the network. Each step of these machines and a shovel will form data traces, accurately depicting the rate of infrastructure construction and other conditions. The latest "excavator index" shows that the Chinese economy is picking up speed.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, at present, the operating rate of large industrial provinces and large-scale industrial enterprises in the country has exceeded 90%, and industrial provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong have exceeded 95%.
This is the Zoomlion Industrial Internet of Things platform, which connects nearly 280,000 construction machinery equipments distributed in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and cities in the country in real time. The data returned from the real-time can be seen. Restored to pre-epidemic level.
A group of research reports from the China Macroeconomic Research Institute also confirmed this. Starting from March, the national resumption of work and production began to accelerate, especially the national key plans of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Xiong’an New Area became the earliest. Resume production area. The Sany "Excavator Index" also confirms this.
It is not only in the field of traditional large-scale infrastructure that it is booming. According to the latest set of data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in March, sales of small excavators used for small and delicate projects such as new rural construction and municipal engineering increased the most. It can be seen that rural infrastructure areas and urban public service short-board areas will also be weak. Become the starting point of investment this year.
At the same time, new infrastructure such as 5G, new energy charging systems, and the Internet of Things are accelerating in various places, and many provinces have increased investment in the digital economy. Not long ago, a "cloud investment" for new infrastructure projects was launched in Chengdu, Sichuan. Through webcasts, cloud inspections, etc., a number of major projects of more than 1 billion were signed. In Jiangxi, the first cloud computing data center in the province received a data custodian order just after it was put into use, and it can also provide intelligent transformation solutions for enterprises in the future. It is expected that annual revenue will reach 5 billion yuan.
Sany Heavy Industry's "Excavator Index" shows that the national infrastructure situation has returned to the average level of last year from March 20, and the situation in the past three days has surpassed that of last year.
Specifically, the provinces with the highest operating rates in the country are Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Henan and Sichuan. Among them, due to the transfer of industrial industries in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and some Huimin infrastructure (such as high-speed rail projects), the operating rates in Anhui, Jiangxi and Henan all exceeded 65%. As the epidemic slows down, the cities in Hubei are rapidly resuming infrastructure construction, and the operating rate has risen rapidly since March 30, and has risen to 58% by April 9.
According to industry statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics from January to March 2020 sold a total of 68,630 sets of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year increase of -8.2%. In March 2020, a total of 49,400 excavating machinery products were sold nationwide. In March last year, the nationwide sales of excavators once set a record high of 443,000 units. This means that in March this year, sales of mining machinery products increased by 11.6% on the original record.
Dongxing Securities predicts that as domestic counter-cyclical policies continue to exert strength, especially in the field of infrastructure construction and other investments, it is expected to provide incremental demand for construction machinery. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will be 251,100, 266,100 and 279,400 from 2020 to 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.52%, 6% and 5%, respectively. Among them, the main driving factors include new demand, replacement of old models, and overseas export demand.
Zou Xi, Rongtong Industry Prosperity Fund Manager, said that he is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the core assets of the cycle, especially the industries that have obvious structural industry trends and are driven by the strong cycle boom, including construction machinery, heavy trucks, cement, and consumer building materials. . After experiencing the impact of exogenous extreme factors, the continuity and stability of the profit growth of the above industries are expected to be verified again, and there is an opportunity for valuation enhancement.
