According to the latest statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in June 2021, a total of 23,100 units of various excavation machinery were sold, down 6.19% year-on-year, and excavator sales fell for three consecutive months. Despite this, the cumulative sales of 223,833 units in the first half of the year still increased by 31.30% compared to the same period in 2020, reaching more than 68% of the total sales of excavators in 2020.
Domestic market: first rise and then fall, the contrast is obvious
From January to June 2021, the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 193,700, a year-on-year increase of 24.30%. Among them, 113,565 units were sold in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 85.3%; in the second quarter, 80,135 units were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 15.30%.
From the perspective of single-month sales, due to the low base in the same period in 2020, coupled with factors such as this year's "in-situ Chinese New Year" policy that has promoted the traditional spring sales season, excavator sales surged from January to March. Among them, in March, the domestic market excavators sold 72,997 units and a year-on-year growth rate of 56.60%, setting a new monthly sales record for excavators in China. The sales in one month even far exceeded the total sales in 2016 (70,320 units, including 70,320 units). Exit).
The ultra-high sales volume in the first three months preempted the market demand in the second quarter to a certain extent, and the decline in infrastructure investment in the second quarter clearly superimposed the high base of the same period in 2020. The domestic excavator market experienced a varying degree of decline in the second quarter. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic excavator sales in May hit a record low in nearly a year, at 14.30%. In June, although domestic excavator sales fell again, the growth rate picked up slightly. It is worth noting that with the continuous increase in steel prices, the prices of construction machinery products have risen. Since May this year, many leading construction machinery companies including Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong, Liugong, Shandong Lingong, etc. The products have all undergone price increases of 5% to 10%, but whether this wave of price increases can actually be implemented remains to be seen.
Some industry organizations have analyzed that the decline in sales for three consecutive months means that terminal demand has weakened. Perhaps this market performance also reveals to the market that the five-year-old excavator boom cycle has reached an inflection point?
Export market: Open high and go high, continue to be hot
In the first half of 2021, a total of 30,133 excavators were exported, a year-on-year increase of 107.00%. The export sales volume reached more than 80% of the total export sales of excavators in 2020.
Benefiting from the improvement of epidemic control in overseas markets and the economic stimulus policies of many countries and regions, overseas demand has recovered relatively quickly, and the export of excavators has achieved rapid growth, which is far exceeding market expectations.
In a single month, the growth rate of excavator export sales in April was as high as 166.30%, which became the highest month of growth this year. In June, the export sales of 6,135 excavators became the highest month of export sales in the first half of the year. It is worth mentioning that since March, the export sales of excavators have achieved rapid growth for three consecutive months, and the growth rate has remained above 110.00%, and the internal and external demand has clearly differentiated. According to forecasts by professional analysts, with the gradual relief of the global epidemic after the popularization of vaccines in the future, the export data of excavators will maintain a steady recovery. It is expected that the overall sales of excavators in 2021 are expected to achieve a growth of more than 10%.
Tonnage structure: medium digging has a significant growth rate, and small digging continues to lead
In terms of tonnage structure, the sales volume of large digging (≥30t) in the domestic market from January to June 2021 is 21,913 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; the sales volume of medium digging (20-30t) is 39,090 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%; small digging (<20t) The sales volume was 96,854 units, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year.
Comparing with the cumulative sales growth of excavators of various tonnages from January to June 2020, the cumulative sales volume of mid-excavators from January to June 2021 has the largest year-on-year increase, and the increase is more than twice that of the same period in 2020. The growth rates of the other two models are lower than in 2020.
In terms of market share, the cumulative sales of large, medium and small digging in the domestic market from January to June 2021 accounted for 14%, 25%, and 61%, respectively, and small digging continued to lead the market with a large share. According to single-month data, in the first half of 2021, the sales volume of large, medium and small digging will fluctuate by about 5%.
The excavator market in the first half of 2021 ended with three consecutive months of sales decline, which seems to have added a touch of calm to the continuously hot domestic excavator market. In the secondary market, the share prices of leading construction machinery companies such as Xugong Machinery, Sany Heavy Industry, and Liugong have fallen successively recently. Among them, Sany Heavy Industry closed at 25.32 yuan per share on July 8, reaching the highest point compared with February 19, 2021. Compared with the 50.3 yuan/share, it is nearly cut in half. According to industry insiders, from the perspective of industry operational risks, the hidden worries accumulated under the rapid growth of the market may slowly emerge. The safety and stability of the mining machinery industry chain will become increasingly prominent, and future market competition may be more brutal. Despite this, the continued increase in the export situation also reflects the accelerated globalization of domestic brands and the improvement of competitiveness. The Chinese excavator market still has room for improvement and resilience. In this regard, professional organizations estimate that the domestic market will be in the second half of the year. Although the growth rate of the excavator market will see a big "downshift", the excavator is expected to maintain double-digit growth throughout the year.
