The manufacturing industry is the main body of the real economy, an important field of supply-side structural reform and the main battlefield of technological innovation, and the main content of the construction of a modern economic system. The high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is an important part of the high-quality economic development. It is related to key strategies such as building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. It fundamentally determines my country's future comprehensive strength and international status.
Since the reform and opening up, my country's manufacturing industry has completed primitive accumulation under the competitive environment of survival of the fittest and has achieved a relatively high level of manufacturing. The development of the manufacturing industry has achieved world-renowned achievements. The added value of the manufacturing industry has been ranked first in the world since 2012. In 2019, the added value of my country's manufacturing industry has reached approximately US$4 trillion. The manufacturing industry is still the industry that drives my country's real GDP growth the most, driving economic growth by 1.6 percentage points. , And its contribution to global manufacturing is as high as 35%, surpassing the United States and Japan. At present, my country is the only country in the world that has a complete industrial system with all products in 39 major categories, 191 medium categories, and 525 sub-categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, including 220 types of steel, automobiles, and mobile phones. The output of the above manufactured products is the largest in the world, and the import and export volume has ranked first in the world for many years. At the same time, the competitiveness of my country's manufacturing industry has continued to increase, and the number of manufacturing patent applications has maintained a rapid growth for 14 years. In 2019, my country has ranked among the top 15 global manufacturing innovation indexes for the first time. The "Mozi" quantum scientific experimental satellite, the third-generation nuclear power "Hualong One", the C919 large aircraft, and the Jiaolong deep-sea manned submersible...... Many major powers demonstrate the strength of independent innovation and strong competitiveness made in China. During the 2020 new crown pneumonia epidemic, a strong manufacturing foundation played a vital role in my country's rapid defeat of the epidemic, and also provided strong support for global epidemic prevention and control. But on the other hand, with the profound changes in the international and domestic political and economic environment, the development of my country's manufacturing industry has slowed down, the domestic and foreign constraints faced by the country are increasing, and the challenges facing the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry continue to rise.
1. The development of the manufacturing industry is slowing down, and the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry may be affected
At present, my country has entered the later stage of industrialization, and the manufacturing industry is the main body of my country's real economy and the key and driving force for high-quality economic development. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, my country’s manufacturing industry’s added value as a percentage of GDP has remained between 28% and 33%. However, in recent years, my country’s manufacturing industry’s share of GDP has shown signs of declining, which was once in 2013. It fell by 2.55 percentage points to 30.10%, rebounded briefly to 30.50% in 2014, and remained below 30% for the next four years. In terms of exports of advanced manufacturing, from 2008 to 2018, my country’s exports of high-tech products accounted for the proportion of exports of manufactured goods fluctuating upwards, from 29.39% in 2008 to 31.44% in 2018, an increase of only 2.05 percentage points in ten years ( see picture 1). From 2017 to 2019, the growth rate of my country's manufacturing value added dropped from 7.2% to 6.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points in just three years. The analysis of business registration data also shows that the number of newly registered manufacturing companies in my country has continued to decline in recent years, while the number of closed and cancelled companies has increased. In terms of the number of company registrations, from 2017 to 2019, the scale of my country's newly registered manufacturing companies dropped from 524,600 to 471,600, which is equivalent to an average annual decrease of 5.2%. Among them, in terms of different types of enterprises, newly registered enterprises of foreign-funded enterprises and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises decreased the most, with an average annual decrease of 8.8% and 8.3%; the decrease of newly registered manufacturing enterprises of private enterprises was relatively low, but also an average annual decrease of 5.1%. From the perspective of the volume of business closures and cancellations, from 2017 to 2019, the scale of my country's annual closure and cancellation of manufacturing enterprises rose from 129,000 to 20,300, which is equivalent to an average annual growth of 24.6%. Among them, the write-offs and closures of private manufacturing enterprises have the fastest growth, with an average annual growth rate of 25.8%; the number of foreign-invested manufacturing companies and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan manufacturing companies that write-offs and shut-downs also increase on average by 11.0% and 6.6% each year. Foreign investment and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan manufacturing enterprises have entered the stage of inventory reduction. Further analysis shows that domestic factor supply constraints are becoming increasingly tight, international competition pressure is rising, and my country's manufacturing industry continues to slow down, affecting its growth from large to strong and high-quality development.
2. Domestic: The constraints on the supply of labor and land elements have increased, and the competitive advantage of the manufacturing industry has weakened
(1) The labor force advantage of the manufacturing industry is gradually weakening
Abundant and relatively cheap labor has always been an important source of my country's manufacturing industry's international competitiveness. However, with the accelerated transformation of my country's population structure and industrial structure, the development of the manufacturing industry is facing the continuous decline of the total labor supply and the accelerated rise of costs. In terms of the total labor supply, due to the rapid rise of related service industry companies, labor demand has increased significantly. At the same time, due to the steady decline of my country's total labor force, the labor problem in the manufacturing industry is increasing. Enterprise Internet recruitment data shows that from 2017 to 2019, service industry companies accounted for an average of 85.2% of the country's total recruitment, compared with manufacturing companies that accounted for only 12.1%. Statistics also show that due to the impact of industrial transformation, the scale of employment in manufacturing in urban non-private enterprises is accelerating, from 52.79 million at the peak in 2013 to 41.783 million in 2018, an average annual decrease of 2.159 million. The proportion of employed persons in urban non-private organizations also fell from 29.0% in 2013 to 24.2% in 2018. In terms of labor costs, corporate Internet recruitment data shows that from 2017 to 2019, my country’s manufacturing-related companies’ hiring willingness salary rose from 6070.3 yuan to 7344.4 yuan, a cumulative increase of 20.4%. In the secondary and tertiary industries, manufacturing wages increased. The magnitude is only lower than the financial industry and scientific research and technical service industries. This also shows that in order to cope with the shortage of labor supply, manufacturing companies are attracting relevant practitioners by increasing wages. Related research shows that with the accelerated rise of wages in my country, the labor cost gap between my country's manufacturing industry and developed countries such as Europe and the United States is gradually narrowing. After taking into account the labor productivity gap, European and American countries are even becoming more advantageous in some manufacturing sectors. .
(2) The cost of land for manufacturing development has risen significantly
Land cost is an important part of manufacturing enterprise cost. From the perspective of land cost, the level of each country is different. Restricted by factors such as small land area and relatively large developed land area, the land prices of Germany, South Korea, Japan and other countries are all between 110-310 US dollars per square meter, and the overall land cost is relatively high; land resources such as India and Malaysia Relatively abundant, the price of industrial land is generally low. The cost of industrial land in India is US$50-150/m2, and that of Malaysia is US$26.91-236.81/m2; however, industrial land in the US and Japan is still at a low level. Column, the price of industrial land is only 50 US dollars per square meter. With the continuous improvement of my country's urbanization level and the acceleration of land prices, the cost of land elements for the development of manufacturing enterprises is also rising significantly. An analysis of the average listed price of industrial land in 100 large and medium-sized cities across the country shows that since 2012, the price of industrial land in major cities in my country has been rising significantly. Taking 2012 as a benchmark, the average listed price of industrial land in major cities in 2019 has risen by an average of 13.6%. Comparative studies by the China Electronics and Information Industry Development Institute and others show that the current industrial land price in my country is comparable to Germany, South Korea, India, etc., but much higher than the United States, Malaysia and other countries.
(3) Tightening of the capital chain of manufacturing enterprises affects short-term debt solvency
Since 2020, the revenue of my country's manufacturing enterprises has been significantly affected by the epidemic in terms of production and sales. From the perspective of production, affected by the epidemic prevention policies of various regions, the resumption of work and production of upstream and downstream enterprises is uneven, the transportation of goods is blocked, the supply chain is not functioning smoothly, and the phenomenon of enterprises not reaching production after resuming work is more common. From the perspective of sales, due to the impact of the epidemic and the impact of control measures, the consumption capacity of domestic residents has declined, which has dragged down domestic demand; at the same time, overseas orders have plummeted and exports have become more difficult, and the dual pressures of domestic and foreign demand have dealt a greater blow to enterprises. Quick ratio is an important indicator to measure a company's short-term debt solvency. It measures the ability of a company's current assets to be immediately realized for repaying current liabilities. The higher the quick ratio, the stronger the company's short-term debt solvency. The monitoring of the financial indicators of manufacturing companies shows that among the manufacturing companies that have a tight capital chain, 83% of companies have a quick ratio that has dropped by 5 percentage points from the same period in 2019. Monitoring public opinion discusses the tension of the manufacturing capital chain mainly focused on: First, the increase in inventory takes up funds. From the demand side, the shrinking demand for consumer goods and investment goods will gradually be transmitted to the manufacturing industry. After the resumption of production and production in some industries, such as automobiles and household appliances, the inventory backlog problem has emerged. The reduction in downstream orders will also be transmitted to the upstream. If the demand cannot be effectively expanded, As the cost of capital occupation of inventory increases, some companies' capital chains will be under greater pressure. The second is the increase in corporate current liabilities. According to the China Securities Finance Research Institute, the decrease in revenue in the second quarter of 2020 will superimpose the need for companies to pay rigid expenses such as wages, rents, and interest to employees during the suspension of the epidemic, which will increase the company's current liabilities and reduce short-term debt solvency.
3. International: Global manufacturing competition is intensifying, and international competition pressure continues to rise
(1) Manufacturing exports are facing double squeeze from developed and developing countries
At present, major countries in the world are paying more and more attention to the development of the manufacturing industry, and actively promulgating relevant policies to encourage the development of their own manufacturing industries and increase competition in the international market. my country's manufacturing industry is facing increasing pressure from international competition. In order to further analyze the international competition situation faced by my country’s manufacturing exports, based on the export product structure of various countries, the similarity of China’s export product structure with major countries such as the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and India has been calculated. The results show that my country The similarity with the export products of related countries has been continuously improved. In the high-end manufacturing sector, my country and developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are facing shortcomings in the international market; while in the low-end manufacturing sector, my country's related product exports are facing fierce competition from related developing countries.
Specifically, compared with developed economies, in 2017-2019, in addition to a slight decrease in the similarity of my country's exports with Germany, the similarity of exports with the United States, Japan, and South Korea increased by 38.3%, 46.9%, and 40.1% respectively. To 39.6%, 49.9% and 42.2%. This shows that with the continuous improvement of my country's industrial development level, the structure of exports between my country and the major developed economies continues to converge, and competition in the international market is becoming fierce. Taking Japan and South Korea as an example, according to the HS2 code of the customs, among the top 10 commodities with the highest proportion of my country’s exports in 2019, 5 categories of commodities are also the top 10 commodities exported from Japan and South Korea, in some subdivided manufacturing product areas , China, Japan and South Korea are in a situation of direct competition where they are close to each other. For example, motors, electrical equipment and their parts are my country's largest export commodities in 2019. The export value accounted for 27.0% of my country's total export value, but the proportions of Japan and South Korea's export value during the same period also reached 14.7% and 28.7% respectively. . Similarly, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, mechanical appliances and their parts are the second largest category of export commodities in my country. In 2019, exports accounted for 16.7%, while Japan and South Korea also accounted for 19.5% and 13.2%, respectively. Compared with developing economies, the similarity of my country's exports with countries such as India and Indonesia has also increased significantly in recent years. Among them, the similarity of exports between my country and Indonesia increased from 17.4% in 2017 to 20.6% in 2019; the similarity of exports with India increased from 45.7% to 48.9%. Especially in the low-end manufacturing sectors such as textiles, garments and toys, my country's relevant export market space is being eroded by relevant countries such as Southeast Asia and South Asia.
(2) The development of high-end manufacturing is constrained by the import of key parts and equipment overseas
Electronic information, automobiles, aviation, equipment manufacturing and other industries are key areas for the high-quality development of my country's manufacturing industry. However, relevant import and export data show that among my country's imports from Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries in 2019, the import volume of integrated circuits and related machinery and equipment, cylinders, gearboxes, aero engines, and various machine tools are relatively large. Among them, Some of the key core components, materials, equipment and processes required for the development of industries are monopolized or even monopolized by countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. Once the import of related products is interrupted, it will inevitably have a huge impact on the development of my country's industry. Taking the electronic information industry as an example, in 2019, my country's imports of integrated circuits used as memory only from Japan and South Korea totaled US$50.79 billion (including US$44.35 billion imported from South Korea), accounting for 53.7% of my country's global imports of such products. The scale of imports of integrated circuits and other integrated circuits used as processors and controllers from Japan and South Korea is also large, reaching 15.93 billion U.S. dollars and 11.32 billion U.S. dollars respectively in 2019, accounting for 11.1% and 19.8% of my country's global imports of two types of products, respectively. . At the same time, the lithography machine necessary for my country's semiconductor chip manufacturing industry is mainly produced by ASML in the Netherlands, and its market share accounts for more than 80% of the world.
(3) Industrial technology upgrading faces pressure from developed countries
Technological innovation is an inexhaustible driving force for the manufacturing industry to achieve high-quality leap-forward development. From the perspective of patent data, compared with Western patent powers, my country's manufacturing core technology is still lagging behind, and it has been repeatedly "patent ceiling" and "technical blockade", which has seriously hindered the improvement of my country's manufacturing industry's independent innovation capabilities. Specifically, the current core technology patent applications in my country are mainly concentrated in the field of electronic communications. Among them, the number of “digital communications” patent technology applications ranked first in 2013-2017, with a total of 28,463, but in medicine, medical technology, biotechnology, engines, and environment The distribution of core technology patents related to strategic emerging industries, such as technology, is still at a low level. From the perspective of the level and scale of patents, my country’s strategic emerging industries have weak technological innovation capabilities and low patent “gold content”. The overall scale of R&D investment in my country is still less than half that of the United States, and R&D investment and intensity are lower than those of the world's manufacturing powers3 % Around the level. Although my country's global ranking in the Innovation Index rose to 13th in 2019, it still deviates from its status as the world's second largest economy and the number one manufacturing country. Compared with Japan, although the performance of Japanese manufacturing industry is not outstanding from the perspective of total data, Japanese companies focus on long-term inheritance and continuous innovation. Therefore, their strength in the field of advanced manufacturing is still very strong. Japan is among the top 100 manufacturing companies in the world. Forty companies, in the field of raw materials and equipment upstream of the industry, both the quality and quantity of patents are very prominent. Comparatively speaking, the development of my country's manufacturing industry is often easily restricted.
Due to the low level of utilization of advanced technology in my country's manufacturing industry and its weak product development and technological innovation, the labor productivity and profit margins of my country's manufacturing industry are low. In terms of labor productivity, the labor productivity of China's manufacturing industry was US$28,974.93 per person in 2018, which was only 19.3% in the United States, 30.2% in Japan and 27.8% in Germany. In terms of profit rate, in 2019, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 619.955 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3% from 2018; the average profit rate of China's manufacturing industry was 2.59%, while the average profit rate of the Fortune 500 was 6.57% , The profit rate of companies outside the top 500 has also reached 4.37%. China's manufacturing industry is "big but not strong", and there is still a considerable gap with manufacturing powers. The overall total factor productivity growth rate of China's manufacturing industry is 2%— Between 6%, the average annual growth rate is 3.83%, which is not at the “top level” in the world.
4. Policy recommendations to promote the high-quality development of manufacturing
Manufacturing is the foundation of a country, the foundation of a strong country, and the source of a rich country. It shoulders the historical responsibility of creating material wealth and is a solid foundation for technological innovation and the development of people's livelihood. Therefore, it is recommended to increase efforts in technological innovation, talent training, and competitiveness enhancement to achieve high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.
(1) Consolidate the foundation for high-quality development and innovation in the manufacturing industry
Innovation is the “bull nose” for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. It is necessary to further improve the innovation input mechanism, innovation incentive mechanism, and innovation protection mechanism, strengthen the continuity of innovation input and the guidance of innovation planning, and effectively create an open innovation ecological environment. Carry out a comprehensive safety assessment of the manufacturing industry chain on a regular basis, focusing on key manufacturing areas and key manufacturing links, and promoting relevant leading enterprises, universities and research institutes to strengthen core components, advanced basic technologies, and key foundations in a way of sharing risks and sharing benefits Breakthroughs in the research and development of materials and equipment to create an independent and controllable industrial chain. It is necessary to accelerate the formation of a manufacturing standard system compatible with high-quality development, actively promote the docking of domestic standards and international advanced quality standard systems, and improve the quality supervision and accountability system. Promote the cultivation of manufacturing brands, create a number of world-class well-known brands with leading and exemplary roles, and improve the system and mechanism for domestic high-quality well-known brands to expand overseas.
(2) Strengthen the cultivation of leading skilled talents in the manufacturing industry
Talent is the key and support for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Focusing on leading talents and talents in short supply, we must focus on cultivating and attracting high-end management talents, establish an efficient and orderly skilled immigration system, and encourage enterprises, research institutes and local governments to introduce top global talents to work in China with institutional support. Innovate education and scientific research system reform, accelerate the construction of a high-end talent training mechanism combining scientific research institutes and enterprises, combine the orientation of talent cultivation with the needs of enterprises, and actively participate in the talent cultivation process, so as to make a good reserve of high-end practical talents in my country. Further increase the intensity and investment in vocational education and skills training, focus on the current shortage of skilled workers, update training plans in real time, improve the vocational education and skills training system, and explore the promotion of networked, open and independent vocational education and skills training , To effectively solve the current shortage of skilled workers in my country. Explore preferential policies for personal income tax for employees of manufacturing enterprises, and encourage outstanding talents to stay in the manufacturing industry. Strengthen the guidance of public opinion, encourage the spirit of practical work, and attract more young talents to join the great cause of promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.
(3) Accelerate the cultivation of comprehensive competitive advantages for high-quality development of the manufacturing industry
Modern competition is multi-domain and multi-dimensional competition. At the same time, various factors that determine a country's competitive advantage will also continue to change in a dynamic environment. In the face of increasing constraints on factors such as labor and land, we must establish a sense of crisis, vigorously promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, promote the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, and accelerate the active cultivation of comprehensive competitive advantages based on multiple factors to ensure Our country is invincible in the international manufacturing competition. In this regard, we should continue to stimulate the potential of the domestic consumer market, expand the scale of the domestic market, and increase the domestic market’s attractiveness to manufacturing companies at home and abroad; focus on new infrastructure, continue to increase investment in infrastructure construction, and continue to improve infrastructure conditions; Improve the construction of industrial clusters, optimize industrial layout, and enhance industrial synergy; accelerate the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, vigorously improve the business environment, and strive to reduce the comprehensive tax burden and institutional costs of enterprises.
Note: ①That is, the amount of enterprise cancellation divided by the amount of enterprise registration. When the cancellation ratio exceeds 100%, the net stock of the enterprise will decrease.
②The structural similarity coefficient is proposed by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. It is used to measure the similarity of the industrial structure of various countries. The value is between 0 and 1. The larger the value, the higher the convergence of the industrial structure of the two countries and the stronger the competitiveness.
