From January to April 2022, China's new energy heavy truck market continued its good performance in the second half of last year. From January to April, the cumulative actual sales reached nearly 6000, a year-on-year increase of 531%. However, at the same time, the epidemic situation spreading in many places has also seriously affected this highly expected segment. The sales growth in March and April has slowed down significantly compared with the previous two months. In May, the impact of the epidemic was not as serious as in the previous two months. The commercial vehicle industry achieved double-digit growth month on month compared with April. From this perspective, the new energy heavy truck market should perform better? How much can it increase? Which heavy truck brand can win the monthly sales list? Please see the analysis report brought by the first commercial vehicle network.
In May, actual sales increased by 63% month on month and 383% year on year
According to the latest data, in May 2022, the domestic new energy heavy truck market sold a total of 1825 vehicles (traffic compulsory insurance terminal sales caliber, excluding exports and military vehicles, the same below), an increase of 63% month on month compared with April, and continued to increase significantly year-on-year, with an increase of 383%, which was significantly larger than that of the previous month (265%), and much better than that of 336% in March. Looking at the sales volume alone, there is no doubt that the sales volume of 1825 new energy heavy trucks in May this year is at a high level, which is the second highest monthly sales volume of this year. In fact, there are still a large number of orders waiting to be delivered and licensed in the new energy heavy truck market. In particular, affected by the epidemic in March and April, the production supply, regional terminal demand and local licensing progress of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have been significantly hindered. This situation improved in May, and the orders previously "pressed" by the epidemic have also begun to land gradually.
It can be seen from the above figure that the new energy heavy truck market has ups and downs in the three years from January to may 2019-2021, and the pace is basically the same, but the monthly sales volume has always been at a low level, and the highest level has not exceeded 500 vehicles (the highest monthly sales volume from January to may in previous years was 378 vehicles in May 2021). As can be seen from the above figure, the red line representing 2022 is always above any color in the previous three years. No matter what month, compared with the sales performance in the same period of previous years, it stands out from the crowd. It can also be seen from the above figure that since 2021, especially in the second half of the year, the new energy heavy truck market has always shown a continuous positive development trend. The year 2022 will soon be more than half, and the "positive" trend of the new energy heavy truck market continues. This year, the new energy heavy truck market has completed nearly three quarters (73.5%) of the "workload" of last year in five months.
In 2022, the terminal demand for fuel and gas heavy trucks continued to be weak. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the actual terminal sales in the heavy truck market in the first five months of this year averaged only about 38000 vehicles / month. From January to April, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals accounted for 7.5%, 3%, 2.9% and 3.3% respectively; In May, the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminal sales increased to 4.2% compared with previous months. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy heavy trucks reached 7677, a year-on-year increase of 488%, accounting for 4% of the sales volume of heavy truck terminals. This is a figure that was unimaginable a year ago. In a market with a sales scale of one million vehicles, it goes without saying what 4% represents.
From January to may 2022, 28 provinces (cities and districts) in China have new energy heavy trucks on the road, but the regional distribution is extremely uneven. More than 100 new energy heavy trucks have been licensed in 16 provinces (cities and districts) including Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Shanghai, Shanxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Xinjiang, Zhejiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Beijing and Fujian, among which more than 3500 new energy heavy trucks have been licensed in Hebei Province; More than 100 new energy heavy trucks have been licensed in 18 cities, including Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Handan, Changsha, Shanghai, Qinhuangdao, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Cangzhou, Linfen, Xingtai, Tianjin and Beijing, of which more than 1600 have been licensed in Tangshan. From January to May this year, more than 20% of the new energy heavy trucks licensed nationwide were licensed with Tangshan's "Ji B" brand; From January to May this year, the number of new energy heavy trucks in Shijiazhuang and Zhengzhou reached 727 and 523 respectively. They are the other two cities responsible for the sales of new energy heavy trucks. Among the top 12 cities (more than 150) in the number of new energy heavy trucks from January to May this year, Hebei province accounted for 6.
The proportion of pure electric fuel cells is nearly 98%, and the fuel cells are "dead" for two consecutive months
From the perspective of fuel types, the new energy heavy truck technology route from January to May this year is still dominated by pure electric vehicles, and only 160 fuel cell vehicles and hybrid vehicles are sold in total from January to May this year. As shown in the figure below, from January to May this year, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in new energy heavy trucks reached 97.92%, an increase of 15.9 percentage points compared with 81.99% in the same period of last year; Fuel cell heavy trucks and hybrid heavy trucks accounted for 1.93% and 0.16% of new energy heavy truck terminal sales from January to May this year, respectively.
In 2021, fuel cell vehicles accounted for 7.46% of the sales of new energy heavy truck terminals. In the first two months of this year, only 30 fuel cell vehicles were sold. In March, there was a small upsurge in the sales of fuel cell heavy trucks, with 76 vehicles sold in a single month. In March, the sales of new energy heavy truck terminals accounted for 5.05%; 4. In May, the fuel cell heavy trucks were "dumb" again, and only 16 and 26 were sold in the two months respectively. From January to May this year, 148 fuel cell heavy trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
Although the fuel cell heavy truck is still in a declining state, under the national "double carbon" strategy, the scope of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application city cluster is becoming wider and wider, and more and more heavy truck brands choose to enter this segment. From January to May this year, Foshan Feichi, Suzhou Jinlong, Sany, Shaanxi Automobile, Zhilan automobile, Xiamen Jinlong, Dongfeng, Nanjing Jinlong and sinotruk sold hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks in the subdivision field of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks. These hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks have been listed in Taiyuan, Shenzhen, Ordos, Beijing, Foshan, Yulin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Baoding and other places.
The top three variants of the monthly list are Dongfeng's top three, Sany / Hongyan, only 7 vehicles short
In May this year, the monthly sales champion of the new energy heavy truck market changed hands again. Dongfeng won the monthly sales champion of the new energy heavy truck market with 319 vehicles, surpassing the second place with 46 vehicles. This is also the first time that Dongfeng won the monthly sales champion of the new energy heavy truck in 2022. In the first five months of 2022, four heavy truck enterprises have tasted the champion of the new energy heavy truck market. It is worth mentioning that, in addition to Dongfeng, which won the monthly list for the first time, SAIC Hongyan, which ranked third in the new energy heavy truck sales list in May, also entered the top three of the monthly list for the first time this year. The top three members of the monthly list of new energy heavy trucks in May are a big change.
In May, the sales volume of 7 enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market exceeded 100, an increase of 2 compared with April. It is worth mentioning that in May, the top three enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market sold more than 200 vehicles, which is another "grand occasion" after three enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market sold more than 200 vehicles in January this year.
In the first five months of this year, 8, 5, 7, 5 and 7 enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market sold more than 100 vehicles per month. You know, in the first five months of last year, only one enterprise in the new energy heavy truck market, Hanma technology, had experienced the "taste" of selling 100 vehicles per month. In May, the sales gap between neighboring enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market did not open: Sany group ranked second and third and SAIC Hongyan ranked only 7, and beiben ranked fourth and fifth and XCMG ranked only 1; In addition, there are four enterprises with monthly sales of 40-60 vehicles, and the gap is also very small. There is only one vehicle difference between heavy truck and BYD, and ranking exchange may occur at any time.
In the whole year of 2021, there were 13 "players" with sales volume of 100 or more in the new energy heavy truck market. After May this year, there were 13 "players" with sales volume of more than 100 vehicles, of which 9 enterprises had sold more than 300 vehicles in total. However, Foshan Feichi, Shaanxi Automobile and other enterprises are not far away from 100 vehicles, and the record of 2021 will soon be broken.
In terms of growth rate, from January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the top three XCMG, Sany and Hanma technology increased by 1208%, 4852% and 205% respectively year-on-year. XCMG and sany both significantly outperformed the "big market" of the new energy heavy truck market; In addition, SAIC Hongyan, Fukuda Zhilan automobile, Universiade, heavy truck and other enterprises saw an astonishing growth in the first may of this year due to their small sales in the same period last year.
In terms of market share, from January to May this year, XCMG heavy trucks ranked first in the industry with a cumulative sales volume of 1177, with a cumulative share of 15.33%, an increase of 8.43 percentage points over the same period last year; Sany ranks the second in the industry with the cumulative sales of 1040 vehicles. In the first may of this year, the cumulative share was 13.55%, an increase of 11.94% over the same period of last year. XCMG and sany are also the only two enterprises in the new energy heavy truck market with the cumulative sales of more than 1000 vehicles as of May; The cumulative sales volume of Hanma technology and Yutong group, ranking No. 3 and No. 4, is also close to 1000, reaching 913 and 906 respectively, with cumulative shares of 11.89% and 11.80% respectively. The gap is very small; The sales volume gap between enterprises ranking No. 5 and No. 6 is also only a single digit. Beiben heavy truck and Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. sold 749 and 740 new energy heavy trucks from January to May this year, with cumulative shares of 9.76% and 9.64% respectively; In addition, the cumulative sales gap between SAIC Hongyan and Zhilan ranked 7th and 8th is only 9 vehicles, and the cumulative share difference is only 0.12%; The cumulative sales gap between Universiade and BYD, ranking 10th and 11th, is only 6 vehicles, and the cumulative share difference is only 0.08%. The gap between adjacent enterprises has not been widened. In the 2022 qualifying competition of new energy heavy truck, each enterprise still has many opportunities to catch up.
From January to May of 2022, the overall market of new energy heavy trucks achieved a growth of 488%. Some enterprises' shares increased significantly, while some enterprises' shares declined. According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, on the one hand, the emergence of this situation is due to the increasingly fierce competition and the continuous and great changes in the sales structure of new energy heavy truck products, which is also a major factor affecting the industry pattern.
In 2021, the market share of new energy tractors will continue to rise month by month, reaching 52.91% in the whole year; In the first month of 2022, the proportion of new energy tractors in the new energy heavy truck market exceeded 50%, reaching 51.6%. After May, the proportion of new energy tractors has reached 60.54% (as shown in the figure above), while the proportion of new energy tractors in the new energy heavy truck market in the same period of last year was 46.44%; On the other hand, the proportion of new energy heavy-duty special vehicles above 12t in the first may was only 16.99%, a decrease of more than 13 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
The main reason for this is that under the national "double carbon" background, the commercial operation of tractors with high transportation efficiency in fixed line scenarios such as mines, steel mills, power plants and ports is becoming more and more mature, and the scope of implementation is becoming wider and wider.
Tractor increased by 376% year-on-year in May, and Hongyan won the first place in the monthly list
In 2022, the most eye-catching new energy heavy truck market is the tractor. In May, the "report card" of new energy tractors was: 1360 units were actually sold, creating the highest monthly sales volume this year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 376%, which was significantly higher than that of the previous month (271%). According to the data of the first commercial vehicle network, 1360 new energy tractors licensed in May this year accounted for 74.52% of the whole new energy heavy truck market.
In May, SAIC Hongyan won the champion of new energy tractor terminal sales, with 265 licensed vehicles, which is the first time Hongyan won the champion of new energy tractor monthly list this year; Sany and XCMG sold 181 and 162 new energy tractors respectively in May, ranking second and third respectively in the monthly list. The gap is not large. In May, six enterprises in the new energy tractor market sold more than 100 vehicles, and Hanma technology, beiben and Zhilan automobile, ranking No. 4-6, sold 144, 141 and 111 vehicles respectively.
In 2021, there will be 12 tractor brands with more than 100 licensed vehicles throughout the year; In the first month of 2022, the number will reach 5. After May, the number will reach 10. Yutong, Nanjing Jinlong and other enterprises are not far from accumulating sales of 100 vehicles. There is no doubt that there will be more than 100 new energy tractors in 2022, and the club members will soon surpass the scale in 2021.
In terms of growth rate, all the participating enterprises in the new energy tractor market achieved substantial growth in the first may of this year. Due to the small base in the same period last year, all the enterprises increased by more than one hundred, thousands or even tens of thousands. It is worth mentioning that the number of "participants" of new energy tractors has also increased significantly: in the first may of 2021, there are only 14 "players" in the new energy tractor market, such as Hanma technology, beiben, BYD, Dongfeng, Futian and Nanjing Jinlong; In the first month of 2022, the number of "players" in the new energy tractor market reached 14. After May, the number of participants in this segment has reached 19. From the growth trend of the number of participating enterprises, it is also not difficult to see that the industry is optimistic about the future prospects of this segment. The participation of powerful "players" such as SAIC Hongyan and FAW Jiefang has made the competition in the field of new energy tractors more intense this year, and the championship battle is becoming more and more suspense.
In terms of market share, from January to May this year, XCMG ranked first in the new energy tractor industry with a cumulative sales volume of 775 vehicles, with a cumulative share of 16.67%; Hanma technology, beiben, Sany group and SAIC Hongyan ranked second to fifth in the new energy tractor market. Their cumulative shares from January to May this year were 15.10%, 13.08%, 12.37% and 10.82% respectively. They are the other four enterprises with cumulative shares of more than 10%. It is worth mentioning that after SAIC Hongyan won the champion of the new energy tractor monthly list in May, the cumulative sales of new energy tractors this year also rose to the top 5; In addition, Zhilan automobile, FAW Jiefang and Dongfeng, the three enterprises with cumulative sales of more than 200 vehicles, respectively gained 9.77%, 4.99% and 4.95% of the new energy tractor market from January to May this year. The gap between adjacent enterprises is not large. The industry pattern after June may be another picture.
From January to may 2022, the new energy heavy truck market and new energy tractor market basically continued the good performance in the last few months of last year. In May, as the impact of the epidemic on the industry became less and less, the growth rate of market sales increased significantly compared with the previous two months, creating the second highest monthly sales volume of this year (new energy tractors created the highest monthly sales volume of this year). There is no doubt that the cumulative sales of 7677 new energy heavy trucks in the first five months of the market have made the "dream" of breaking the annual scale of 20000 more and more realistic. At the same time, both large and small "players" in the heavy truck industry have won in the new energy heavy truck "competition" in 2022, and the championship competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the excellence continues!
