This year, the reversal in the farm machinery market is not coming. After the "golden ten years" ended, the growth rate of the agricultural machinery industry slowed down, especially in the traditional industries supporting areas, the tractor and harvester industry declined significantly. In the case of market saturation, weakening of the pulling effect of subsidy policy and gradual improvement of traditional management means, it is very important to find new exploding points.
Recently, the "2018 China Agricultural machinery high end forum" (CAIF2018), jointly organized by the agricultural machinery magazine and the China Agricultural machinery society, was held in Beijing. More than 200 people from all over the country participated in this forum.
This forum, with the theme of "the new age of agricultural machinery", explores how the agricultural machinery industry should break down under the new environment of "13th Five-Year" planning, supply side reform, emission upgrading and market downlink.
A sluggish market or a normal state
There is a comprehensive analysis of the new situation and new problems in the development of Agricultural Mechanization in China. It is believed that in a long period of time, the development of agricultural machinery market will be a big probability event unless there is a special stimulating factor in the future.
First of all, from the analysis of the mainstream products that have the greatest impact on the growth of the agricultural machinery market, there is a lack of demand to support the expansion of the market scale. Since the implementation of the subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase in 2004, the agricultural machinery market has entered a rapid expansion period. From the stock point of view, after more than ten years of growth, the main products of the main products, such as tractors and combine harvesters, have been able to meet the needs of production. In the future, we will enter the market with product update and technical upgrading. The mainstream farm machinery products market tends to be saturated, and the possibility of continued expansion is limited.
From an incremental perspective, the market size of the future mainstream farm machinery products depends largely on the size of the update. However, due to the promotion of moderate scale operation, the actual renewal amount of small farmers will be less than the theoretical deduction value. Then from the value analysis of the farmers' investment tractors and the combine harvesters, the increase of the insured quantity makes the possibility of the operation of the cross district becoming smaller and smaller. According to the analysis of the agricultural machinery production and the agricultural machinery ownership of the annual statistical annual report of the national mechanization, the average of 78.34 Mu and 56.91 mu of machine sowing per tractor per tractor are completed in 2016, and each rice and wheat harvest is harvested. The actual machine harvester 238 mu of wheat and 276 mu of rice, each corn combine harvester 776 mu, with little investment value.
Besides, niche agricultural products other than mainstream products can not shoulder the heavy responsibility of industrial growth. The mechanization of the production of potato, cotton, rape, peanut, soya bean, sugarcane and herbage, with the exception of the traditional three major agricultural mechanization stages in China, is also on the agenda of the mechanization of the production of ginger and garlic. Big development, and may form a local market prosperity, create a small industry with hot fire, but its impact on the growth of the whole agricultural machinery industry is limited and can not bear the "heavy responsibility" to support the growth of the whole industry. The small public machinery products with a wide variety and limited amount are very difficult to realize large-scale production in spite of the high profit of the unit, but it is only an important factor of the agricultural machinery market. Small public machinery products can produce a prosperous subdivision market, but it is only a fluctuation factor of the agricultural machinery industry. The rapid growth of several small products may not offset the slight decline of the mainstream products.
Therefore, although China is at the stage of comprehensive and full mechanization of agricultural mechanization, many fields have obvious development needs, some areas still need to fill in the gap and have great potential for development, but the stock of the mainstream agricultural machinery products determines the agricultural machinery market in a long period of time and will be in the downturn.
Push forward the innovation and upgrade of industry
At the forum, three top executives at home and abroad jointly discussed how to break through in a bad market environment.
AlistairMcLelland, the global vice president and managing director of China, believes that the growing population is growing, and the demand for food is getting higher and higher, which will make technology a driving force for the development of agricultural machinery. Lin Qionghua, the general manager of the agricultural machinery trade (Beijing) limited liability company, said that the free competition of the market economy will help the agricultural machinery industry jump out of the predicament and enter a benign development. Zhu Weijiang, deputy general manager of First Tractor Company Limited, believes that the whole industry needs to cross the gateway and innovate to promote transformation.
At present, the market of agricultural machinery industry is dismal, industry experts believe that the agricultural machinery industry has changed from high speed to deepening structural adjustment and optimizing industrial upgrading. The demand of users and the factors of competition are undergoing profound changes.
Transformation and innovation are the survival path of agricultural machinery enterprises in the future. The downturn in the agricultural machinery market means that the era of large slope growth of agricultural machinery sales has become a history, the market competition will be more intense, the agricultural machinery enterprises make more difficult to make money, and the real test of agricultural machinery entrepreneurs has come. Objectively, the industry will be forced to upgrade the industry, improve the innovation ability and product quality, better meet the multifaceted demand of agricultural production, and promote the healthy development of the industry. Since the implementation of the subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase, the state will be improving with the characteristics of scale verification and the production of products around the subsidy policy.
The depressed agricultural machinery market has forced the mainstream agricultural machinery products to speed up industry integration and industrial upgrading. The market of the mainstream agricultural machinery products has changed into a new market. Although the imbalance of economic development in our country determines the diversity of the demand for agricultural machinery products, the most influential customers of the market are mainly agricultural machinery cooperatives, agricultural production enterprises, large agricultural operators and so on. The demand for products and the scale of the market will be reduced. The intense collision between excess capacity and insufficient demand will inevitably undergo a shuffle to rebuild the market competition pattern.
With the continuous adjustment and improvement of the agricultural machinery subsidy policy, the agricultural machinery subsidy funds will focus on the rural cooperatives and other large-scale agricultural subjects and the high-end, green and intelligent products. The leading enterprises with brand, technology, scale and service advantage will usher in the development opportunities, and the agricultural machinery market will change from speed to quality.
