Since 2017, the domestic construction machinery industry has been in a boom for three years. Industry companies have not only ushered in a sales recovery, but also achieved a business breakthrough.
It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators in 2020 will be 256,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, the growth rate of the concrete industry will be 10%-15%, and the growth rate of the truck crane industry will be 5%~10%. The sales growth rate of the entire Q2 excavator industry is expected to reach 45%, and the entire Q2 construction machinery industry is expected to maintain a high prosperity. The leading domestic host and parts companies will continue to increase their share of the trend. The second half of the year is expected to continue in the three stages of peak demand season, overseas resumption, and economic recovery.
Leading OEMs are expected to usher in higher valuations as their global competitiveness improves.
Take Sany Heavy Industry as an example. In 2019, the return on net assets was as high as 29.52% and the net operating cash flow was 13.265 billion yuan. It has experienced industry troughs and internal improvements, and the industry recovery has quickly restored the balance sheet. A typical example of high-efficiency development, global competitiveness is improving. The global construction machinery market has a space of about 200 billion US dollars. Caterpillar has a share of more than 10%, while domestic manufacturers have a very low share. Taking the excavator as an example, Sany only has a 2% overseas market share, and there is broad room for future development. Carter's average historical valuation is 17-20 times, and Sany's valuation is only 10 times this year. As its global competitiveness appears, it is expected to usher in an increase in valuation.
Rapid import substitution of core parts and components, giving growth valuation.
Insufficient supply in the industry has accelerated the import substitution of domestic components. Hengli's small digging pump valves are relatively mature, and Zhongda digging pump valves are also advancing rapidly. Import substitution + domestic market share increase + follow OEMs to increase global market share triple Under the growth logic, parts companies have switched to growth valuation this year, and the market value will continue to grow with their high performance.
The vast stock market brings leasing space, and the valuation of leading leasing companies is improving.
Tower crane leasing leading construction machinery valuation increased to 20 times this year, under the dual growth logic of assembling construction penetration rate increase + market share increase, the valuation is still cost-effective. At present, the tower crane leasing market has a space of about 70 billion yuan. Pangyuan's leasing equipment and personnel management are leading, and it will face a broader construction machinery equipment leasing market in the future.
In summary, the domestic construction machinery industry chain is mature and competitive. In the future, the domestic periodicity will be weaker than the previous round, and the overseas development space is broad. The leading OEMs Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, core parts Hengli Hydraulic, Eddie Precision, the leading construction machinery for tower crane rental, deserves attention.
