China's construction machinery market is still in the annual cyclical peak season, but compared with last month, demand has weakened.
In May 2020, the China Construction Machinery Market Index, or CMI, was 135.07, an increase of 0.68% year-on-year and a decrease of 2.85% from the previous month (according to the CMI judgment standard, 130
In May 2020, China's construction machinery market index decreased slightly month-on-month and slightly increased year-on-year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is still in an annual cyclical peak season, but compared with last month, demand has weakened. As of May 22, the operating rates in South China, East China, Southwest, Central China and North China have all exceeded 73%; the operating rate in Northeast China has exceeded 66%; however, in late May, the operating rate in some areas has decreased.
In the CMI index, the inventory index for surveys and feedbacks from manufacturers is basically the same as the previous period, and the production index remains at a high level, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period. It fell by 2.7 percentage points, and the user price index for the first-line market research increased by 4.4 percentage points.
Overall, the out-of-stock situation at the terminal in the first-line market has eased, but a small number of models of some brands still have out-of-stock phenomenon.
According to the current data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Excavator Branch, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the statistics in April 2020, in April 2020, sold a total of 45,426 excavating machinery products, an increase of 59.9%. The domestic market sold 43,371 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%. Export sales were 2,055 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Among them, sales in the domestic market were higher than our expectations of 12,682 units. The market's popularity in April continued to exceed expectations, and this trend is expected to continue in May.
Judging from the situation of the market terminal, the hours of operation of the market monitoring excavator in the domestic circulation sector increased by 5.92% year-on-year in the first two decades of May 2020.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, from January to April 2020, national fixed asset investment (excluding farm households) was 1368.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, and the decrease was 5.8 percentage points narrower than that of January-March. In terms of chain speed, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.19% in April.
From January to April 2020, the investment growth rate of the mining industry reached -9.2%; in particular, the fixed investment in the coal mining industry still maintained a positive growth rate of 3.7%. Infrastructure investment fell by 11.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 7.9 percentage points from January to March. Among them, investment in the water conservancy management industry decreased by 6.0%, and the decline narrowed by 7.6 percentage points; investment in the public facilities management industry decreased by 13.6%, the decline decreased by 6.9 percentage points; investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 9.4%, the decline decreased by 8.1 percentage points; Industry investment fell 16.1%, and the decline narrowed by 12.5 percentage points.
From January to April 2020, national real estate development investment was 3.3103 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points from January to March. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 740.568 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The floor space of houses newly started was 47.768 million square meters, a decrease of 18.4%, and the decrease narrowed by 8.8 percentage points. The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 31.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, and the decrease was 10.6 percentage points narrower than that in January-March.
In terms of different regions, investment in the eastern region decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 5 percentage points from January to March; investment in the central region decreased by 20.3%, a decrease of 7.5 percentage points; investment in the western region decreased by 4.5%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points. Percentage point; investment in Northeast China fell by 7.5%, and the decline narrowed by 6.7 percentage points.
From the perspective of new construction projects, in April, there were 22,693 new construction projects (excluding real estate development projects, the same below), an increase of 10,695 from March; of which 5,614 new construction projects with a value of more than 100 million yuan, an increase of 2,660 from March, were above The same period of the year increased by 1509. From January to April, the total investment of newly-started projects increased by 1.1%, from negative to positive, reflecting the steady improvement of investment activities.
From the summary information of all parties, the growth rate of the solid investment field, which is closely related to the construction machinery industry, has continuously narrowed. . Most construction machinery regional markets still maintained high temperatures in May, but some regional markets have slowed down relative to April. It is expected that the market will gradually enter the annual cyclical off season in June. This year's off season may be shorter than previous years.
Incorporating April 2020 excavator sales data into the Chinese construction machinery market monitoring and forecasting data model, we predict that in May 2020, domestic excavator market sales will be 25,944 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%. The forecast data will be updated monthly based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from the first-tier market.
