At the broker's morning meeting, Guojin Securities found that the activity of national infrastructure construction far exceeded market expectations through big data monitoring; CICC believes that the construction machinery industry will usher in accelerated import substitution in 2020.
Guojin Securities: The big data monitoring indicators are strong, and the national infrastructure activity is far beyond market expectations
The monitoring indicators of infrastructure-related big data are strong, and the national infrastructure activity is much higher than market expectations: According to the monitoring of the big data model, Xu Junyi of Guojin Securities found that China's current traditional infrastructure-related indicators continue to be strong and domestic infrastructure activities are very active.
China is fully operational, and the central and western regions are leading the recovery of infrastructure activities: through retrospective and model analysis of truck logistics strength and heavy truck terminal retail strength in various provinces and cities, the occurrence of heavy truck retail strength and truck logistics strength in various provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China has emerged before and after the epidemic As a result of the obvious changes, the provinces and cities that increased truck logistics intensity at the beginning of the year were mainly in Shanghai and Beijing. The heavy truck retail intensity in the southwest region increased year-on-year. However, after the epidemic, the truck logistics intensity and heavy truck retail intensity of most of the provinces and cities in the country have become obvious The year-on-year growth of the central and western regions is the region that recovered for the first time after the epidemic and is currently the region with the largest growth in the retail intensity of heavy truck terminals and the intensity of truck logistics, and this trend is in line with the latest State Council "Guidelines" agree.
China's economic vitality has basically returned to normal levels: Through the capture and modeling analysis of national emissions data, city traffic, and tanker data, Guojin Securities believes that China's economic activity has basically returned to normal levels.
CICC: Project demand exceeds expectations in April, and high boom is expected to continue in May
The excavator utilization hours in April continued to grow at a rate of 34.3% after returning to positive growth in March, the year-on-year growth rate hit a record high since February 2018. CICC expects sales and utilization hours of construction machinery industry to continue to exceed expectations in May, maintaining its judgment on the steady growth of construction machinery industry throughout the year.
In terms of sales volume, in April 2020, the sales volume of China's excavator industry was 45,426 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%. Domestic demand has become an important support for the industry's prosperity. In April, the mainland market sold 43,371 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%.
Leading component manufacturers have been operating at full capacity since March, and their orders are scheduled to far exceed the peak season level of last year. They are actively working to increase production capacity through overtime, overtime, and technological transformation. At present, the localization rate of high-end hydraulic parts in China is only about 10%. CICC believes that the industry will usher in accelerated import substitution in 2020. Investors are advised to focus on OEMs and parts suppliers that benefit from the trend of import substitution.
China Everbright Securities: Technology rebounds rapidly
Yesterday, chip-leading technology stocks made a comeback. Everbright Securities Xie Chao and others believe that for the technology sector, in the short term, the upgrade of Sino-US trade friction to a technical blockade will suppress market risk appetite to some extent, but the recent risk premium has peaked and fell. This means that the most difficult time for the technology sector may have passed.
In the medium and long term, the stock market's ups and downs do not depend on the technical blockade. It more measures the ability of companies to create monetized profits. With the end of the US dollar index panic and inflationary pressures continue to fall, the market is returning to the "data strong The first phase of the economic policy cycle of “Policy Looseness” and the rapid growth of M2 and the increased domestic investment in science and technology in the context of the technical blockade will all help science and technology companies to enhance their ability to create monetized profits.
In addition, from the perspective of cash flow, affected by the epidemic, the revenue of the technology sector declined significantly in the first quarter, but the proportion of cash flow decreased slightly, and even the proportion of cash flow in the computer, electronics, and communications sectors rose sharply. The forward-looking indicators of revenue improvement, and the better cash flow performance of the technology sector mean that it will still have investment value in the medium and long term.
