According to the latest statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, a total of 20761 mining machinery products were sold in June 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. The year-on-year decrease in excavator sales slowed down for three consecutive months, and market demand continued to improve. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales of 143094 excavators decreased by 36.1% compared with the same period in 2021, accounting for only 40% of the total sales of excavators in 2021 (41.7%).
domestic market
"Bring the dead back to life", showing a positive trend
From January to June 2022, the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 91124, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9%. Among them, 51890 units were sold in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%; In the second quarter, 39238 units were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 51.0%.
From the perspective of monthly sales, due to the domestic epidemic in the first half of this year, the adverse effects were significantly increased, and the economic development was extremely unusual. Unexpected factors had a serious impact on the excavator sales. In addition, the high base factor in the same period in 2021 led to the downturn in the downstream demand of the excavator market. Although the excavator sales volume in March was the highest in the first half of 2022, the year-on-year decline of 63.6% was also the largest in the first half of the year, and even exceeded February (-60.0%) which was most seriously affected by the initial epidemic in 2020, becoming the month with the largest year-on-year decline in the past two years.
In April, the new downward pressure on China's economy increased, resulting in a deep decline in excavator sales, with a year-on-year decline of more than 60.0%. In May, with the efforts of all regions and departments to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the supply chain of the industrial chain was gradually dredged, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of enterprises continued to increase, and the decline in domestic excavator sales in the month narrowed (-44.8%). In June, a number of economic stabilization package policies related to construction machinery were effectively implemented, and infrastructure projects continued to land, which had a positive impact on domestic excavator sales. In that month, domestic excavator sales stabilized and rebounded (-35.0%).
export market
The highest monthly sales volume exceeded 10000, showing strong toughness
In the first half of 2022, a total of 51970 excavators were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.2%. The cumulative export sales accounted for 36.3% of the total sales, more than twice the same period in 2021 (13.5%), and reached 75.9% of the total export sales of excavators in 2021. Undoubtedly, the export market has become an important growth point of the excavator industry at present.
In the first quarter, although the export growth rate narrowed, it started smoothly as a whole. The export sales of 10529 units in March became the highest and the only month with export sales of more than 10000 in the past two years. In the second quarter, due to the logistics interference brought by the epidemic, the export sales of excavators were affected in April. However, since May, with the overall improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the effects of various steady growth policies have gradually emerged, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises has been promoted in an orderly manner, especially the rapid recovery of imports and exports in the Yangtze River Delta and other regions, which has led to the overall growth rate of excavator export trade to rebound, and quickly reversed the downward trend of growth rate in April, It has laid a solid foundation for the stability and quality improvement of excavator exports throughout the year.
Since 2022, factors such as the COVID-19 and the international situation have led to an increase in external environmental risks and challenges. Blockages and breakpoints in the supply chain of the global industrial chain still exist, and bulk commodities such as energy and raw materials continue to operate at a high level. In particular, inflation pressure in major global economies such as the United States and Europe remains high, further compressing demand. In this context, China's Excavator exports have overcome the short-term impact of the epidemic and the tightening of the external environment, and maintained rapid growth, reflecting the strong toughness of China's Excavator foreign trade.
Tonnage structure
The proportion of large-scale mining sales is gradually increasing, and small-scale mining continues to lead the market
In terms of tonnage structure, 10341 units (≥ 28.5t) were sold in the domestic market from January to June 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%; The sales volume of medium excavation (18.5~28.5t) was 20589 units, a year-on-year decrease of 63.8%; The sales volume of small excavation (<18.5t) was 60194 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47.6%. The year-on-year growth of sales of large, medium and small excavators was negative, among which, the year-on-year decline of China excavators was the largest, more than 60%.
In terms of market share, the cumulative sales of large-scale excavation, medium-sized excavation and small-scale excavation in the domestic market from January to June 2021 accounted for 11%, 23% and 66% respectively. Compared with the same period in 2021 (large: 14%, medium: 25%, small: 61%), the proportion of small-scale excavation changed the most, floating to 5%. At the same time, small-scale excavation continued to lead the market with a large proportion.
In a single month, the proportion of medium mining sales in the first half of 2022 fluctuated slightly, and the fluctuation remained at about 1%; The proportion of sales volume of large-scale excavation has been on the rise since February, while that of small-scale excavation has decreased with the recovery of large-scale excavation demand.
In the first half of 2022, the international environment was complex and severe, superimposed on the epidemic of the century, the development of globalization encountered a counter current, the domestic economic restructuring and transformation were in a critical period, and it was more difficult for China's economic growth to reach the potential level.
In this context, China's construction machinery industry has also encountered multiple pressures, such as shrinking domestic demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. These effects are also reflected in the semi annual performance forecasts disclosed by a number of listed construction machinery companies recently - the net profits of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, China Longgong, and Shanhe intelligent have all been significantly reduced by more than 60%. Among them, Sany Heavy Industry is expected to decline by more than 70%, the lowest since 2018, while Shanhe intelligent is expected to decline by as much as 85% - 100%. It is worth noting that despite the decline in net profit, the overseas performance of major listed companies continued to grow at a high rate in the first half of the year.
Based on the situation in the first half of the year, it is a challenge for China's excavator industry to achieve the expected annual growth target, but we should also see that the fundamentals of the whole industry with strong toughness, sufficient potential and long-term improvement have not changed.
The development of excavator export trade still has obvious competitive advantages, and the ability to cope with uncertainty is continuously enhanced. Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the effective coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects of various policies and measures to effectively promote the stabilization of the economy continue to appear, and China's excavator market is expected to continue to warm up, so that sales remain within a reasonable range.
