Lithium mine, the strategic resource in the new energy era - "white oil", has witnessed unprecedented disputes over price inflation and profit explosion, stock price inflation and decline, cycle and growth, the expected involution of institutions and retail investors, and the discrimination between the present and distant poetry, one mu of land and the security of the industrial chain.
The divergence of views on lithium ore can be called the first of the four major periodic differences (shipping, rare earth, phosphorus chemical industry, lithium ore).
The strong contrast between ice and fire is not only reflected in the bullish and bearish view of stock prices, but also in the continuous breakthroughs in prices, the continuous highs in profits and the continuous decline in stock prices, and the possible sharp decline in expected prices and expected profits, which has formed a huge scissors gap.
Let's first look at the scissors difference between lithium ore price and stock price trend, which is almost never seen in the market.
1. Scissors difference between price and stock price trend
The price increase of 10 times a year is beyond even the peak of real estate and rare earth.
A 7-fold increase a year may not be so prominent in a shares, but it is very rare for the entire lithium sector to approach this increase on average.
At first glance, it doesn't matter: which stock only rises but doesn't fall? Which stock will not be adjusted or halved after rising 10 times?
The controversy lies in the comparison between the time point of peaking, the length and range of adjustment, the price of lithium salt and the performance of lithium companies.
Price represents profit and share price represents valuation.
Take Tianqi lithium as an example to see this strange price, profit and share price scissors.
2 take Tianqi lithium as an example, history has not been repeated
In the last round of business cycle, after the price of lithium carbonate first stood in the top range (150000) in September 2017, the share price of Tianqi lithium reached a high of 60 yuan. The peak profit of Tianqi lithium was in the first quarter of 2018 after 16 consecutive quarters of rising profits -- deducting 693 million yuan of non net profit. The inflection point of lithium carbonate price was in April 2018. Since then, profits have continued to decline, and losses have continued for eight quarters since the third quarter of 20219.
If we think this is dominated by institutions, it seems that the institutions have indeed made half a year's advance and expected the decline in prices and profits after half a year.
The key point is that the price reached 160000 in September 2021. 160000 has exceeded the high point of the previous round, and the organization believes that it is the top area. In the last round, it turned down after 6-7 months of sideways trading in this area.
Institutions are very familiar with history, and all kinds of analysis and statistics are naturally clear in their minds. Taking history as a mirror, high prices are inevitably unsustainable. Therefore, it is natural to judge that the top of the price has come, the ceiling of future performance has also been clear, and the stock price has been too high relative to future performance, so sell.
It seems to be very reasonable and institutional: expect your expectations, one wave is full, and start harvesting and retreating.
If history repeats itself, it will perfectly demonstrate the level of the institution.
But history did not repeat itself.
In terms of price, September 2021 was not the peak. After a sharp increase of 160000 in September 2021, it rose steadily to 180000 in October, 190000 in November, 240000 in December at the end of the year, and accelerated to 350000 in January, 440000 in February, 460000 in March, and 490000 in April.
In terms of profits, after eight quarters of losses totaling about 8billion, Tianqi lithium ushered in its first quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, about 1.4 billion, twice the peak profit of the previous cycle of 693 million. In the first quarter, Tianqi lithium deducted non net profit of 2.83 billion, four times the peak profit of the previous cycle of 693 million.
However, the peak share price of Tianqi lithium in this cycle is 143 yuan, which is about 2.4 times that of the previous round of peak share price of 60 yuan. At present, the share price of Tianqi lithium has fallen to 66 yuan, 10% higher than the peak share price of the previous round, and 30% higher than the top central 50 yuan share price of the previous round.
Therefore, in the recent twoorthree quarters, there has been a "miracle of lithium scissors": prices and profits have risen sharply, and share prices have fallen sharply.
3 safety mat of lithium ore
Institutions look at what will happen in twoorthree years, and we also look at what will happen in twoorthree years.
Both institutions and downstream recognized that the price of lithium salt at 100000-150000 is very suitable. Not this year, an average of 400000 should be about the same. Let's assume that the price of lithium carbonate will start to fall at the beginning of next year. The price of lithium carbonate in 25 years is calculated by the upper limit of 15 and the lower limit of 10.
As for lithium carbonate falling below 100000 in the future, few people seem to think so. If lithium, the core metal of new energy, should not make money, which energy metal, or which metal, or which mineral should make money? Mining and refining are hard work after all. Not many people are willing to do hard work now. They must have a decent income. The upstream cannot always work for the downstream free.
The price of lithium carbonate in 25 years is calculated according to the upper limit of 150000:
From the perspective of PE, even as a cyclical stock, it is still attractive. Because this is the PE with low price. The price of 150000 lithium carbonate is much lower than pe10.
It can be seen that according to the current production expansion plan, the price of 100000 lithium carbonate, most of the lithium ore PE is still below 20, and some are below 10pe.
Dalong Ganfeng lithium 19pe, Erlong Tianqi lithium 36pe, salt lake lithium boss 10pe, cangge mining 10pe, jiangte electric 38pe, Tibet Chengtou 21pe, tibet everest 5pe (equity), Keda 15pe, China mineral resources 10pe, Rongjie 30pe, Tibet Mining 31pe (not ppt lithium), Tianhua ultra clean 15pe, chuanneng power 47pe, Yongxing material 25pe, Yahua group 11pe, Shengxin lithium 19pe, Jinyuan 16 PE.
Some may be a little wrong. The cost of mines in Sichuan and Jiangxi may be high. But in general, it's this range.
In addition, it should be noted that the profit release of lithium stocks in U.S. stocks is much slower than that of a shares because long-term association accounts for the majority. For example, this year, the spot price in China is 400000-500000, and the long-term association is 250.3 million. The long-term association of lithium mines in U.S. stocks is the mainstream. The price change is slow, and the profit release is slow. For example, sqm and Yabao have an average lithium carbonate ton price of 60000 in 21 years, no more than 100000 after Q4 price adjustment, and the price of q2022 long-term association is about 150000-200000, However, sqm long-term cooperation will decrease in 2022, and profit release may accelerate.
The US lithium mine not only has a slow profit release, but also the feedback of the stock price to the price and profit is slow. There will be no A-share market that is expected to rise three times and five times. It can be considered that the stock price will not move in advance if there is no rabbit or eagle, and if there is no profit release.
For example, sqm's profits have increased in recent quarters, and its share price has increased in recent half a year. Tianqi's share price has fallen. Last year, a wave of expectations of domestic lithium mines filled the market, and its share price has risen. Sqm's profit release is slow, and its share price trend is slow. Sqm's share price will probably continue to rise with the release of profits this year.
Now, the Pb of Tianqi lithium is 7.44, the static PE is 70, the static PE of Ganfeng lithium is 27.9, the Pb is 6.66, the Pb of American pure lithium lac is 6.73, the loss, the living P / E ratio is 5763, pb4.54, the Yabao P / E ratio of the main lithium mine is 187, Pb 4.18, the sqm P / E ratio of the main lithium mine is 38, pb6.98. With the release of the first quarterly report, their PE will decrease.
It can be considered that the valuation of mainstream A-share lithium stocks is similar to that of U.S. lithium stocks, reflecting the cashed performance. At present, it is the valuation of typical cyclical stocks.
We won't discuss which is better or worse here, because PE is not the only factor that affects the value and stock price, as well as production expansion expectations, reserves and other factors.
In the medium and long term (25 years), due to the increase in volume, when the price of lithium salt of lithium ore falls back to the lower limit of a reasonable consensus within and outside the industry, under the existing valuation, the PE of lithium ore is below 20, and some are around 10. Is there a certain safety cushion?
No matter what cycle stocks, no matter what metals, when the price is in the low range, 10-20pe is already very good.
Of course, under the expectation of 100000 price, the downward fluctuation range of these lithium stocks is indeed limited in the next few years.
In this way, is it good to be able to stabilize in any price range above 100000?
If the price center increases, the profit will increase, and the valuation center will also increase.
As for the short-term trend, it may also depend on the face of ningwang, lithium battery sector, the market and funds.
Lithium cannot and does not need to squeeze the profits of the entire industrial chain, let alone raise prices until demand is comprehensively and continuously curbed, and can earn very good profits at a price that is very acceptable both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
This is very harmonious and balanced. It should be, and no one will shout this and that every day. It should be, and no one will go to pick up some poor lithium ore with a taste of 0.1 in China.
By increasing the volume of money, you can earn good profits at prices that are comfortable in both upstream and downstream. With good PE and valuation, can you also be regarded as a growth stock?
4 institutional arrogance and Prejudice
The Organization recognizes the manufacturing industry and does not recognize mineral resources; The high valuation and high gross profit of manufacturing industry are recognized, and the high valuation and high gross profit of minerals are not recognized. For example, BYD, Ningde times and GuoXuan high tech can continue to overestimate, but lithium cannot. There are many reasons. After the lithium price rises, ghost stories are one after another.
Under your expectation, you start to reverse the dilemma. Real estate, pig breeding, tourism, etc. the worse, the worse. It's already so bad. How bad can it be? It must return to the center of history after all.
In contrast, the price is already so high, how much higher can it be? The performance has been so good, how can it be better?
For example, lithium ore has been hyped and is expected to be full. It is time to find the next explosive industry. For example, you can buy copper. Copper will be endowed with the attribute of energy metal by crud and become a growth stock. For example, you can buy "inheritable" traditional Chinese medicine.
For example, lithium ore is a cyclical stock after all. The rapid expansion of production soon leads to oversupply, and high prices and high gross margins are unsustainable. For example, it is frightening to see sqm and Yabao expand production by 200000 tons and Yichun expand production by 400000 tons.
Another example is that the price of lithium salt is too high, which will eat back the demand, and the demand will decrease. Lithium salt will still be in excess, and the price will naturally fall. There is even a farce about the reduction of battery production in March, and there are rumors that BYD Ningde and manufacturers in the industrial chain are boycotting lithium salts with a price above a certain price (refer to the previous column).
For another example, the high price of lithium salt will be detrimental to the healthy development of the new energy industry, and the middle and lower reaches will not make money, which will affect the expansion of production and the release of demand. Even boss Zeng of Ningde era, a large factory, directly called for "ensuring supply and stabilizing price" of lithium ore at the meeting, and he was more looking forward to the rumors of the above-mentioned collective mining.
Another example is, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Association: lithium should be killed "Demon price, xinguobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology: resolutely crack down on hoarding, speculation and speculation, and promote the return of the price of key raw materials for new energy vehicles to rationality. Another example is Li Zhen, chairman of GuoXuan high tech: Yichun will form a lithium development with an annual output of 500000 tons, completely ending China's lithium shortage. It is expected that by 2040, with the development of battery recycling and reuse, mankind will no longer need to ask for unlimited battery manufacturing resources from nature.
Even Mars' great God musk is involved in this ghost story.
Musk said, "the price of lithium is crazy. Unless the price of lithium drops, Tesla may have to directly enter the mining and smelting field of lithium on a large scale. Lithium itself is not in short supply. The earth is full of lithium, but the expansion speed of mining and smelting is slow.".
This means that Tesla will end up doing lithium by itself if lithium ore and lithium salt do not reduce prices
The institution has been cutting the leeks of retail investors with expectations that are ahead of retail investors. A wave of expectations of lithium mine is full. After cutting the leeks, go to find an expectation, which may be copper, aviation, pork, real estate, tourism. In short, the institution should expect your expectations. Otherwise, how can it reflect the level of the institution?
Since at a time when lithium prices and profits are soaring, institutions look at lithium from a cyclical perspective, look at it from a cyclical perspective.
After the end of last year's lithium share price rise cycle, based on the perspective of the cycle, the institution used the lithium price of 100000-150000 to make a medium and long-term valuation of lithium.
5 from a cyclical perspective, lithium may be underestimated
Many people do view lithium stocks in terms of the cycle of pigs or other minerals. There are two core issues in the cycle: 1. Expansion of production and supply growth. Minerals have a cycle, but it is slower than pork. Now the expansion of mature bulk minerals is better than lithium minerals. After all, there are many mines in production, and expansion of production is easier than new construction. 2. Demand growth. The demand for pork will fluctuate but will not increase several times in consecutive years. Other bulk minerals, too, may have demand growth and decline, but the range will not be doubled and doubled. Lithium minerals correspond to a compound growth rate of more than 30% for consecutive years.
Therefore, it is inappropriate to use pork and bulk minerals to compare lithium. Many cyclical products already have a large production and demand base, while the production and demand of lithium ore is in its infancy. Whether in terms of electric vehicles or energy storage, there is still 5 times and 10 times space, which is the main demand area of lithium ore.
Of course, everything has a cycle, nothing can always be high profits, but the length of the cycle.
From a cyclical perspective, the longer the price rises or remains high, the higher the certainty of profit release.
Combined with the above prediction of lithium mine profits in 2022 and the recent first quarter forecast of lithium mine dynamics, PE reached about 10pe. Excluding the valuation of the pig cycle, the PE valuation corresponding to the high share price of the metal resources sector (the profit corresponding to the high price release) averaged more than 30 times. After the profit release of lithium this year, the average PE is 10pe.
From the perspective of periodic operation, lithium may be underestimated.
6. Hidden troubles of lithium ore
The future of lithium is not without hidden worries.
The first is the supply and demand cycle, which may lead to oversupply by expanding production beyond expectations.
In terms of demand, it seems that the growth rate of electric vehicle energy storage is no problem, which is basically no doubt, but the growth rate. Supply elasticity is the biggest suspense. According to the current supply growth rate, the probability is in tight balance in the next three to five years. However, if China, Australia, South America, Mexico, Africa and other countries and regions break the conventional mineral approval procedures and expand production at full capacity, especially the extreme expansion of Salt Lake production, the supply is likely to increase significantly, or even slightly exceed the demand.
Some institutions predict that there will be a surplus of 50000 tons this year, 150000 tons next year and 300000 tons the following year.
But this possibility is too small. Firstly, it is not in line with the general trend of environmental protection, and secondly, it is not in line with the maximization and sustainability of the interests of mineral lands.
Secondly, the route of lithium battery was denied. Now sodium ion batteries have shown the possibility of energy storage applications, and hydrogen energy vehicles are also the future strategic route supported by the state.
The third is the source of lithium, which has developed from mining to recycling. So far, no metal can be developed from mining to recycling, but the most important use of lithium in the future, accounting for more than 70%, may be the relatively single scenario of battery, which creates the possibility of large-scale recycling. When the total scale of batteries reaches a stable stage, the theoretical recovery rate has now reached 91%, so the mining volume required is not much, and the supply may be in excess of demand at this stage. However, there is another limitation to this problem, that is, recycling also has costs, which may be between 80000 and 100000. Then the economic competitiveness of recycling method is not strong near the price of lithium ore. However, there is a problem that if the lithium recovery cost is so low, there is no large-scale recovery.
The boss of Ningde era, who has great influence in the lithium battery industry, expressed in the conference call of the first quarterly report: the lithium recovery rate of Bangpu has reached 91%, and the nickel and cobalt have reached 99%. In the long run, the penetration rate of electric vehicles has reached 80-90%. There is no need to dig new mines. In the medium term, the company relies on sodium ion batteries, and in the short term, Ningde has won two big mines; Lithium carbonate has no technological breakthrough. It sold for 350000 yesterday and 500000 today, which is due to speculation.
7 understanding of lithium ore
The understanding of institutions only stays at the primary level, and lithium is a cycle. Books and history tell them that lithium = lithium + ore = proper cyclical stocks. When the price of lithium ore and lithium salt rose to the previous high (2017), they thought it was a sign of retreat. They regard lithium stocks as pure lithium stocks, but this is a complete mistake.
Let's first look at the preconditions.
First of all, will the lithium battery industry be completely overturned?
Theoretically, the application of lithium battery in the two most important directions of power battery and energy storage may be replaced by nano battery, aluminum battery, antimony battery or some battery and other energy storage methods, such as hydrogen energy storage.
However, in practice, the most popular nano battery has obvious defects in energy density and cycle times, and hydrogen energy has obvious defects in cost, safety and conversion efficiency, which cannot be completely solved in 10 years.
The number of cycles of sodium ion battery is 2000, and that of lithium iron phosphate battery is 6000 at present. In addition to accepting the special situation that low density and low cycle times also require low cost, sodium ion batteries basically have no chance to emerge before lithium runs out.
As for hydrogen fuel cells. The energy loss of hydrogen produced by electrolysis is more than 20%, but the efficiency of direct charge of lithium battery is 99%, with a significant gap. For the storage and transportation of hydrogen, either pressurize it and compress it into the high-pressure tank with 790 times of atmospheric pressure, and the energy loss in the process is about 13%, or liquefy it and cool it to - 253 ℃, and the hydrogen will condense, and the energy loss in the process is great, about 40%. The conversion efficiency of hydrogen energy into electric energy is about 60%, while the efficiency of lithium tram is about 75% considering the conversion of AC and DC.
Therefore, in the foreseeable future, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will not be commercially available in terms of efficiency and cost.
Whether investing in stocks or national energy strategy and security, it is impossible to build on a technical route that cannot be commercialized on a large scale within 10 years, let alone an uncertain technical route.
Now pickup trucks have large-scale lithium battery planning, and heavy trucks are also trying lithium batteries.
However, both investment and national strategies pay attention to timeliness. What may happen in 10 years is meaningless to 99.99% of investors. The technical route that will not be finalized until 10 years later has no significance for the recent new energy strategy.
Since the electrode potential is the most negative, lithium is the metal with the strongest activity and the lowest density among the known elements (including radioactive elements), so the power battery must be a lithium-ion battery.
On this route, whether it is ternary batteries, including high nickel ternary batteries including 4680, lithium iron phosphate batteries, including lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries, or semi-solid solid state batteries in the future, the proportion of lithium in them will only increase rather than decrease.
In the visible future, there is no possibility that the large-scale application of lithium will be overturned. In the future visible to the naked eye, lithium, as the name of "white oil", will exist for a long time.
Lithium batteries will not be overturned in the foreseeable future.
Second, and most importantly, the supply and demand trend of lithium ore.
Since the lithium battery industry will not disappear and the demand for lithium exists for a long time, the ultimate force that affects the price of lithium ore and lithium salt and the profits of manufacturers still comes from the supply and demand situation.
The global penetration rate of electric vehicles is 8% in 2021, and will exceed 10% to 12% in 2022, that is, China's electric vehicles have just passed the start-up period and entered the acceleration period; Electric vehicles around the world are about to pass the start-up period, and will enter the acceleration period later, with a five-year period of rapid development; China's electric vehicles are developing faster than the global average, and the competitiveness of the overall industrial chain is at the leading level in the world.
The energy storage is still in the start-up period of 1-10, and the total amount is not large for the time being, but the growth rate is more considerable. The compound annual growth rate of the new installed capacity is about 104.5% from 21 to 25.
Therefore, the current price of lithium ore and lithium salt is mainly affected by the demand for electric vehicles, especially the sales volume of electric vehicles in China.
Data of the prospectus Research Society:
From 2021 to 2024, with the continuous launch of new global production capacity, the lithium supply shortage will not exceed 100000 tons. In 2025, with the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, the sales volume will increase significantly, and the supply and demand gap will expand to 290000 tons.
Indeed, some domestic institutions (or many? Data are limited and cannot be counted) predict that there will be excess lithium mines in 2025. There are all kinds of predictions abroad. The prediction range of lithium market prospect in 2025 ranges from 13% demand gap to 17% excess demand:
Such a large gap between different forecasts shows that lithium is a small market on the edge of rapid expansion.
As for the high price of lithium ore, it has backfired on demand. First of all, for every 100000 yuan increase in lithium price, the cost of lithium iron phosphate vehicle will increase by 3807 yuan, and the cost of three yuan vehicle will increase by 5363 yuan. Even if it increases by 300000 yuan, in theory, the cost of lithium iron phosphate vehicle will increase by 11421 yuan, and the cost of three yuan vehicle will increase by 16089 yuan.
I won't list it. Basically, all brands and models are raising prices. Even Wuling Hongguang miniev has increased by 4000-8000, and the starting price is 28888.
However, does this backfire on demand, decline in sales, and consumers do not recognize electric vehicles? No, sales volume in March has come out. Sales volume of the head electric vehicle brand is still 100% higher than that of the previous year. Electric vehicles are still hard to get. Waiting time for collection ranges from oneortwo weeks to oneortwo months.
Buying electric vehicles is not for subsidies, nor for license plates, but for the comprehensive competitiveness of electric vehicles, especially in terms of vehicle cost, which has advantages over fuel vehicles. Of course, I said that electric vehicles, to some extent, are a kind of consumption degradation compared with fuel vehicles, but at least they can afford it. The consumption of electric vehicles has entered a virtuous cycle of self driving, and even price increases and queuing cannot stop this cycle.
As for rising to 800000, 1million, will it reverse the demand? What is backfire? Supply exceeds demand. Is it called backfire to rush to buy when prices rise? This only shows that the demand is strong and the comprehensive competitiveness of electric vehicles is strong.
But there are so many lithium mines. The demand is too large. Who will give them to? Low end electric vehicles may be under pressure, but since lithium cannot meet the needs of everyone, it can only meet the needs of people with higher price acceptance, such as medium and high-end vehicles. Lithium production has been expanded, and then the demand for low-end electric vehicles can be further met.
Electric cars are actually a kind of consumption degradation. For a few people, electric cars are an experience upgrade, but for most people, they are a choice of consumption degradation. Electric vehicles may have some inconvenience at present, but as long as the comprehensive cost of purchase and use is lower than that of fuel vehicles, even if the high price of lithium ore is transmitted to the price rise of terminal electric vehicles, electric vehicles are still more attractive in terms of economy and practicality. This is the core reason for the soaring demand for electric vehicles, indicating that electric vehicles have entered the self driving development stage, rather than relying on subsidies and coercion.
Finally, the reality is the most accurate, and the price rise and fall is the most accurate number to reflect the relationship between supply and demand.
Lithium is the metal element with the lowest standard electrode potential, the largest electrochemical equivalent and the lightest in nature, so it is a natural battery metal with long-term demand rigidity.
Lithium has abundant global resources, which can shoulder heavy responsibilities and support large-scale power and energy storage applications around the world.
However, the total amount of resources is abundant ≠ the immediate production capacity is abundant, and the high-quality lithium resource projects with large-scale aggregation, high-grade and easy exploitation are scarce, and the global distribution is uneven.
Lithium is a low-grade mineral. In addition to resource endowment, the lithium extraction process also has an important impact on the cost; Lithium is a new mineral, and the development potential of various lithium extraction technologies is still great.
Prices may have cycles, and demand and output are growing.
Whether in theory or in reality, lithium is an unprecedented super cyclical growth metal!
8 electric vehicles restructure the global industrial and economic center
Automobile is the most important bulk product in the world. The automobile is undergoing a cross era transformation from a fuel vehicle to an electric vehicle, which has never been seen in a century.
So far, the automobile is still the most complex civil product produced on a large scale. In terms of the number of parts and manufacturing difficulty, mobile phones are far inferior to cars. Cars have tens of thousands of parts, and their design life is often more than ten years. During this period, they have to experience wind, frost, rain and snow, summer heat and winter cold. One of the wonders of modern industry is that such a complex thing can be made so reliable, so maintainable, and so low in cost.
The complexity and reliability requirements of medium and large aircraft are indeed higher than those of automobiles, but these are commercial products rather than civil products. Compared with civil products, commercial products are characterized by small production scale, relatively low Maintainability requirements and relatively insensitive price.
The automotive industry has very high requirements for production management, which can radiate other manufacturing industries. The automobile industry is a highly integrated industry, which will bring almost the whole industrial chain.
From the perspective of national defense, since World War I, the overall war mode has still dominated the war. In this mode of war, a country's industrial strength, especially the strength of the manufacturing industry, often determines the country's war strength. The automobile industry itself just marks the strength of a country's manufacturing industry.
The automobile industry is the symbol of a country's manufacturing industry and industrial strength.
Automobile is the largest pillar industry in Germany, directly creating nearly one million jobs for the German economy and contributing about 12% of the tax revenue. One in every seven jobs in Germany is related to the automotive industry.
The automobile industry is the largest pillar industry in Japan, accounting for nearly 40% of the total industrial output value. Automobile and related industries provide about 5.3 million jobs in Japan, accounting for 8.3% of the total employed population. Among the world's top 500 Japanese industrial enterprises, half of their profits come from the automotive industry.
The automobile industry is also an important pillar industry of the United States, the United States and South Korea.
Whenever an economic power rises, it will produce the most advanced management system in the world at that time. When the United States surpassed Europe, Ford produced a large-scale assembly line production system in the 1920s-1930s. When Japan challenged the United States, Toyota produced a lean production system in the 1950s-1960s.
The automobile industry is compared to the industry in the industry. If the parts and auto afterindustry are included, the automobile industry accounts for about 15% of the world GDP. The number of employees accounts for about 10% of the total employment.
Mobile phones can create several companies, such as apple, oppo and vivo, while cars, to some extent, can create several countries, including South Korea, Japan, Germany and part of the United States.
The market size of traditional cars (US $1.8 trillion) is more than three times that of smartphones (US $500billion).
It is not too much to say that the United States and the West are countries on the wheel. But this car used to be a fuel car, and later it will be an electric car.
Whether China can become an industrial power and a manufacturing power, it can be said that the battle of electric vehicles will largely determine the outcome.
Electric vehicles are not only the biggest focus of terminal products in the new energy reform, but also will become the world's largest consumer market and the most important manufacturing industry in the future new energy era, just like the previous traditional energy era.
The rise of China's electric vehicle industry chain in the world will mean that China's comprehensive national strength will be raised to a big level.
40% of the cost of electric vehicles is batteries, and the core raw material of batteries is lithium ore and lithium salt.
9 lithium ore is a strategic resource of new energy
We are in a new era of energy transformation that is unprecedented in the world in a century.
Carbon neutralization and carbon peak move from global consensus to global action. With the electrification of energy consumption and the cleaning of power production, the world is ushering in an era of transformation from fossil fuel dependence to clean and renewable energy (the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is only a short-term disturbing factor); Electrochemical energy storage and other new energy storage, chemical power supply represented by lithium battery system is the basic equipment in the green revolution; The double carbon target will also have a profound impact on the future global cycle, the trend of the global supply chain, and the idea of process design.
Global new energy vehicles have entered a period of rapid growth from the start-up period.
With regard to energy transformation and new energy vehicles, we have been at the forefront of the world and have a competitive industrial chain. If this is the fourth industrial revolution, we may succeed in turning over the tide of this revolution, leading the global trend, taking the national strength and industrial competitiveness to a higher level and successfully stepping into the ranks of developed countries.
New energy and new energy vehicles may be the war of national fortune!
Electric vehicles are currently the main battlefield. Energy storage is the battlefield of the future.
The core of electric vehicles is batteries. The core of energy storage is also batteries. The core of batteries is lithium.
Lithium is "white oil", which is a non renewable strategic resource in the industrial chain of new energy, just as coal, oil and natural gas are to traditional energy and traditional fuel vehicles. However, due to its generally low grade, its scarcity and strategic value far exceed that of coal, oil and gas.
Recyclable?
Whether it is rare metals with high unit price or bulk metals with low unit price, gold and silver, rare earth cobalt and nickel, iron and aluminum, which metal can account for the bulk of metal production? It's not even too much to ignore. How many years has iron been widely used by human beings? How many years has it been widely used in China? Is the recycling process technology mature? Can it become the mainstream source of iron metal instead of iron ore?
Like all other metal minerals, recycling does not affect the scarcity of lithium ore.
Cyclical?
Everything has a cycle, and new energy, electric vehicles and lithium mines are in a super growth cycle. Resource = cycle? Mine = cycle? Is there a cycle? Does the iron ore have a cycle? Is it easy to expand the production of petroleum iron ore or lithium ore? Is traditional energy a typical cycle? Is it going to decline? BHP Billiton earns more than $10 billion a year, Rio Tinto earns more than $20 billion a year, Vale earns more than $20 billion a year, and Saudi Aramco earns more than $100 billion a year. Over the years, there has been no loss in a year, and the profit has increased year by year. Is this the cycle? This is a mine that has no threshold, and the supply exceeds the demand as soon as the production is expanded?
Cyclical fluctuations do not affect the growth of lithium mines, because the demand is growing significantly.
Lithium ore is the most important strategic resource in the new energy era, and lithium salt is the most important raw material composition of electric vehicles!
In the new energy era in the future, lithium mine is no less important to our energy security, raw material security and global competitiveness of the new energy industry chain than oil and iron ore.
10 taking history as a mirror: iron ore and oil
Why are we so passive in oil and iron ore? Why do you have to import at such a high cost?
In 2021, China spent more than 1.66 trillion yuan on imported crude oil, and its dependence on foreign countries was 72%.
In addition to the United States, the western developed countries are not major oil producers, but they are powerful in oil resources. In addition to Saudi Aramco, which became a global oil giant after oil nationalization, the real global oil giants are the five major oil companies: BP in the UK, shell in the Netherlands, dowell in France, ExxonMobil in the United States and Chevron in the United States.
The net profit of the five major oil companies in 2021 was US $89 billion, about 540billion yuan, not to mention China's three barrels of oil, which is different in nature. What money do you earn from three barrels of oil? The five major oil companies have interests in oil wells all over the world. What money do they make?
The transnational index of "three barrels of oil" is only about 30%, while the transnational indexes of BP, Exxon, total and other major international companies reach 84%, 76% and 76% respectively. In addition, although Chinese oil and gas enterprises actively expand overseas, the proportion of overseas oil and gas production in all oil and gas production is only about 30%, while BP, Exxon and total's overseas oil and gas production account for 89%, 84% and 70% respectively.
Before oil became the supporting energy, western countries explored, exploited and controlled oil resources all over the world. Even though some oil resources have been nationalized by the local government for decades, oil companies in western countries still control many oil exploitation rights and usufruct, because oil exploration, design, construction, exploitation and sales require investment, professional technology and sales network, These are basically in the hands of Western oil majors.
In fact, the United States is rich in oil and natural gas resources, and has rapidly become the world's largest oil producer in recent years. But before that, the United States has frozen domestic oil exploration, including offshore oil exploration, for decades.
China is known as a big steel country. China is the world's largest steel producer. In 2020, China's crude steel production accounted for 56.5% of the world, accounting for 1.053 billion tons. Japan's crude steel output is only 83.2 million tons, accounting for only 4.4% of the global total.
2021 is the year with the best performance in the history of China's steel industry. The net profit of all steel enterprises is about 110billion yuan, and all steel workers are elated. But only three iron ore giants, BHP Billiton of Australia, Rio Tinto of Britain and vale of Brazil, have a total net profit of US $61.7 billion in 2021, about 380billion yuan!
The demand for iron ore in recent years is not at its peak, and the epidemic has also inhibited various construction activities. In the recent year, the gross profit of iron ore is still more than 90%, while that of Baosteel, China's best steel company, is 9.58%.
But Japan, whose output accounts for less than 5%, holds the pricing power in the global steel market! First of all, Japanese steel enterprises are high-tech and leading, which can create better quality steel. More importantly, Japan has mastered the upstream resources of global steel.
Japan is poorer in resources, but it has long sought to control resources globally. Mitsui consortium invested in vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton respectively, and held certain shares in the three global iron ore giants, especially vale. In 2003, Mitsui invested US $850million to acquire 15% of the shares of Vale's parent company, entered the company's Administrative Committee, and became the actual business decision-maker of the company. Although there is no iron ore in Japan, Japan has finally become the third largest iron ore resource power in the world. Rio Tinto's robu river company has 43% of the shares held by three Japanese companies, Nippon Steel, Mitsui and Sumitomo, and Vale's MBR company has 50% of the shares held by Mitsui, etc.
Although we knew it later and tried our best to get out of the iron mine, however, due to non economic factors and the late time, we were seen through and targeted the sniper. The effect was not obvious, and we were still very passive. Kangaroos often follow beautiful countries to disgust us, but no matter how angry we are, no matter how flowers are used to punish kangaroos, no matter how the price of kangaroos rises, we can't touch its iron ore.
From January to December 2021, China imported 112.4315 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year decrease of 45.19 million tons, or 3.9%. However, in terms of import volume, in RMB terms, the import volume of iron ore in 2021 increased by 338.52 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 39.6%, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan (the first time to exceed 1 trillion yuan), accounting for 7% of China's total import volume of 17.4 trillion yuan. In dollar terms, the import of iron ore in 2021 was US $184.67 billion, an increase of US $60.94 billion year-on-year, with an increase of 49.3%.
In 2021, our imports of oil and iron ore totaled nearly 3trillion yuan. The net profits of our oil and iron ore enterprises overseas can almost be ignored. Overseas oil and iron ore are profiteering. With the import of 3trillion yuan, they should earn at least 2trillion yuan, while our national factory's foreign trade surplus for a hard year is only 4.5 trillion yuan.
2 trillion is equivalent to 1.3 billion people across the country, each of whom contributes 1500 yuan annually to foreign companies and governments on oil and iron ore. The total population of developed countries in the world is only 1billion. They also control other resources and high-profit technological products. Why don't they worry about a high-income and high-quality life?
We are the largest oil consumer and the largest steel consumer. We have the largest petrochemical production and the largest steel production in the world, but we have no pricing power for oil and steel. We have to use the hard-earned money of the manufacturing industry to pay for the expensive and profitable oil and iron ore.
11 lithium ore pattern is very severe
In the era of new energy, how can we go through the mistakes of iron ore and oil again?
You know, China's iron ore resource reserves are 20billion tons, accounting for 12%, ranking fourth in the world, second only to kangaroo, Brazil and Russia. But there are many poor mines and few rich mines. According to the data, the three countries with the best taste of iron ore are South Africa (63%), India (62%) and yi Lang (56%) and Russia (56%), of course, Brazil and kangaroo are also good, 52% and 48% respectively. China's iron ore tastes only 35%.
Now we are angry again, no matter how we change the flower to punish kangaroos, no matter how the price of kangaroos rises, we just can't move its iron ore. Because China imports more than 1 billion tons of iron ore every year, 80% of the world's iron ore is collected by China. China's iron ore import dependence is about 70%, and 67% comes from kangaroo.
South American lithium triangle Chile, Bolivia and Argentina account for nearly 60% of the global lithium resources, and the salt lake resource endowment is excellent, with large reserves, high concentration and low magnesium lithium ratio. It can be produced by low-cost spreading method, and the cost of lithium extraction is only 3000-4000 US dollars / ton.
Other countries with rich resources include kangaroo country and the United States. Kangaroo country has 6.3 million tons of lithium resources, and most of them are hard rock lithium mines. It is the world's largest exporter of hard rock lithium mines, with high taste. In China, spodumene lithium mica salt lake lithium is basically of low taste, low content and difficult to mine.
The situation of lithium ore is more serious than that of iron ore. our lithium ore reserves account for only 6% of the world.
From the perspective of enterprises, the concentration of lithium resources in the world is relatively high. The main production capacity is monopolized by ALB of the United States, living of FMC, talison of kangaroo (Tianqi lithium accounts for 51%, ALB accounts for 49%) and sqm of Chile mining and chemical industry (Tianqi lithium shares 25%), accounting for about 90% of the world's production capacity. We have a gap.
In 2020, China's lithium raw material output accounted for only 24% of the world, while the basic lithium salt smelting capacity reached 69% of the world. China has mastered the vast majority of the world's lithium processing capacity, but the self supply capacity of lithium resources is obviously insufficient, and the self supply rate of raw materials in 2020 is only 32%.
In addition to Ganfeng lithium and Tianqi lithium, the self supplied lithium carbonate capacity of all domestic lithium mining companies this year is less than 25000 tons, Ganfeng lithium is only 46000 tons, and Tianqi lithium is 55000 tons. Yabao's lithium production in 2022 is expected to be 100000 tons of LCE, all of which are self supplied; In 2025, the production capacity will be 370000 tons, and the target output will be 200000 tons, all of which will be self supplied; Sqm has a sales volume of 140000 tons of LCE in 22 years, a sales volume of 180000 tons in 23 years, and a production of 300000 tons in 25 years, all of which are self supplied. From the perspective of production capacity and self supplied ore, we still have a gap and need to work hard.
On April 1, the White House said Biden would sign an executive order authorizing the use of key materials required by the defense production act to ensure the promotion of clean energy transformation. Should it be OK to include the minerals required by new energy into the list related to national defense production?
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States is only 4%, which has been recognized.
China's dependence on lithium ore imports is about 70%. In the past year, lithium concentrate has increased by more than 10 times, from less than $500 in the first half of last year to more than $5000 / ton in the second quarter of this year.
On April 1, Australian lithium miner allkem announced a significant increase in the price guidelines of lithium concentrate. The company expects the average selling price of lithium concentrate in the second quarter of 2022 to be as high as $5000 / ton (SC6%, CIF), a sharp increase of about 125% month on month.
At the fourth auction of Pilbara bmx4, an Australian lithium miner, on September 27, the transaction price of 5000 tons of concentrate was $5650 / ton (sc5.5%, FOB, about 555 tons of lithium carbonate). After adding US $90 (to most domestic ports) freight and appropriate processing costs, the cost of lithium carbonate is expected to be about 410000 yuan / ton (including tax). By the end of this year, lithium may be pushed up to $10000 through auction, and the basic cost of lithium salt will exceed 600000.
Australian miners publicly admit that they want to grab all the profits of lithium salt and only pay processing fees to lithium salt processing plants. Moreover, they are deploying lithium mines in Africa and salt lakes in South America. They are indeed masters of mineral resources.
Australian miners are already rolling our wool.
This is just the initial stage of new energy. If there is no control over resources, the profits of batteries, electric vehicles and energy storage may have to be significantly transferred to the most upstream lithium mines in the future, and lithium mines may also become a bottleneck node, following the example of petroleum and iron ore.
The iron ore has been stable above $120 for a long time, with the highest ever reaching $233. The production cost of iron ore is $14 (excluding freight). The offshore cash cost of iron ore of the four major international mines is very low, basically around $20 / ton. From the perspective of the average landed cash cost, the average landed cash cost of iron ore from the four major international mines in China from 2015 to 2020 did not exceed $40 / ton.
In other words, in the case of sluggish demand in recent years, iron ore still maintains a gross profit of 67% - 83%.
Is there a cycle of iron ore? Is it profiteering? Is the demand declining? Is it easy to oversupply by slightly expanding production? In theory, there is iron everywhere. China also has iron ore, but as long as we can't control a large number of low-cost mines, and just this mine is what we need a lot, the foreign resource side will certainly make profiteering. This cycle may only be a question of 70% or 80% or 90% gross profit.
In the first quarter of 2022, an iron ore company in Vale earned 50% more money than all our A-share steel companies. If there is no sufficient layout in the upstream of lithium ore, the future results can be imagined.
12 correct posture
Lithium ore situation is grim.
Although our lithium reserves are not rich, we cannot let others completely control the strategic resource of new energy - lithium in the future.
Vigorously exploit domestic lithium resources, suppress domestic lithium salt prices and profits of related companies, "ensure supply and stabilize prices", suppress the market value of lithium companies, and establish a lithium mining system for bargaining, which represents the current mainstream views and voices.
But this may be wrong.
For lithium, the most important strategic resource in the new energy era, which has not been seen in a century, our focus at this stage may not be to suppress its price in an all-round way to ensure the profits of the middle and lower reaches.
We want to use a global perspective, upstream and downstream of the domestic lithium battery industry chain, work together to explore, cooperate and control more lithium resources worldwide, so as to lay a foundation for the stable development and even survival of the lithium battery industry chain in the future for a longer time, and lay a foundation for our new energy security and independent control of new energy in the future!
The price is determined by the market and supply and demand.
Profits are determined by the development of the market and enterprises.
Valuation, let the capital market decide.
The price of lithium ore is high, and eventually the price rise will be transmitted to the downstream and terminal. The most vulnerable demand in the terminal may be temporarily suppressed, but the strong demand can still be met. After lithium ore has capital expansion, a few years later, most of the demand will finally be met, and lithium ore can also return to a relatively reasonable price.
New energy is a major trend that has not been seen in a century to change the global geographical pattern and energy situation. At the beginning of the trend, lithium, as the core strategic resource, is unlikely to become an ordinary cyclical metal, is unlikely to rapidly oversupply, and is unlikely to just obtain the same gross profit as other metals.
Electric vehicles and energy storage have crossed the start-up period and are about to enter a high-speed development period. The expansion speed of the middle and lower reaches of lithium batteries is the fastest miracle of industrial capacity expansion in history. The terminal demand and manufacturing demand are increasing by tens of percent every year. However, how can lithium mines keep up with this epic surge in demand from exploration, exploration to mining, environmental assessment, design, construction and capacity climbing?
Since the output of lithium ore is difficult to match the demand, the price is bound to rise, clearing out some demand with weak price tolerance.
To solve the price problem and the long-term supply-demand matching problem, we need active and even radical lithium mine capacity expansion. To expand, we need funds.
If lithium mines quickly return to the so-called "reasonable price", there will be no attraction of high profits, and lithium companies will not be able to invest without rich profits. After losing a few years and earning a little, it will soon return to normal profits. If it takes a few years, there may be no profits again. It's not that it hasn't happened before. There's no need to venture for this meager profit.
Only lithium battery upstream and downstream companies, traditional mining companies, and other industry companies, including lithium mining companies, continue to invest in the exploration, approval, design, and construction of lithium mines, can they produce more lithium mines in three, five, and ten years, and meet three to five times the demand for terminal lithium mines!
This is the only way for China's upstream and downstream lithium batteries to open up the last mile of lithium mines and win the commanding heights of global lithium resources. With the help of the middle and downstream lithium batteries, which are already not weak and are still on the rise, our lithium battery industry chain will become the world leader, and our electric vehicles will have a solid rear area to cut through thorns and thorns all over the world!
At present, China's lithium mining companies are still younger brothers in front of global giants.
The main production capacity of lithium resources in the world is monopolized by American Yabao ALB, American fumeishi (live under FMC), kangaroo guotalison talison (Tianqi lithium accounts for 51%, ALB accounts for 49%) and Chilean mining and chemical sqm (Tianqi lithium shares 25%), accounting for about 90% of the global production capacity.
There is a big gap between our lithium companies and global giants now, and it may be even larger in the future. They are American companies, Australian companies and South American companies. In Australia and South America, the rich lithium mining region, that is their home.
We are not united, structured, and farsighted. In the future, lithium, the core strategic resource in the new energy era, will inevitably be controlled by others. No matter how powerful the middle and lower reaches of our lithium battery industry chain are, they are also lame and will be choked by others at any time.
We may not be able to control the high price of lithium ore, but it seems not a problem to give a higher valuation to domestic lithium ore and lithium salt companies. Not only is it not a problem, it is also just needed to solve the problem.
From 2019 to 2020, the vast majority of lithium mines are in deficit, so many mines have been closed, so the mines have been insufficient in the past two years.
After just making a quarter of money, I haven't caught my breath, and I haven't started to add new production capacity in a large area. The downstream began to say that I can't stand it. The two giants joined hands with their younger brothers to resist the price rise of lithium ore. is it a little early and a little urgent?
If you earn money, you have to pay off your debts, collect mines, build production lines, and repay shareholders appropriately.
Otherwise, you will never make money, or you will never see the hope of making big money. Will shareholders expand their production? Will investors pay for the high share price? Can fixed growth be passed in industries and projects without profit prospects? Can someone answer the debt financing?
Neither.
Mineral investment has always been an investment with large capital demand, long cycle and high risk.
Hundreds of millions, billions of funds, two-year and three-year production cycle, five-year and ten-year return cycle, and even when the supply exceeds the demand, you have to sell a ton of Coptis to lose a ton? Why? Because of production stoppage and bankruptcy, it means more losses, and even hundreds of billions of investment in the early stage has been lost.
However, such a large investment, capital cost, time cost and price risk. From the perspective of investment income, such a large risk must match the very considerable profit potential before anyone is willing to open up mines and expand production.
Other industries don't mention that when lithium mine was at a low tide a few years ago, many good mines and large mines lost money, closed down and went bankrupt. The price has come up in the past six months. Do you think they have reopened? Yes, but there are mines, and I still can't help it. It costs money to close the door, and it takes time to open the door. I was afraid a few years ago. What if I just spent a lot of money to open the door and the price goes down? Mine owners are also afraid of being cut repeatedly by the market. There is no place to cry.
Tianqi lithium industry and lithium mines in Australia should have something to say. Tibet everest and zangge mining should also have something to say. China mineral resources, Rongjie shares, jiangte electric, lithium mine expansion line, whether it is loans or fixed increases, tibet everest, Tibet Mining, Tibet urban investment, Tibet grid mining, Salt Lake expansion?
A mine from exploration, approval to design, construction, production capacity, the construction of a lithium salt production line of tens of thousands of tons, which is more than 1 billion dollars. The cash on hand of the lithium salt lithium mine that just took a breather is far from enough.
Without a good profit prospect and the prospect of making big money, these money can't be raised. These companies have just turned profitable, and the money in their hands is far from completing these expansion projects.
With such a small number of mines now, whether electric vehicles or energy storage, when can large-scale development be popularized?
Therefore, in order to match the lithium ore needed for the sustainable and rapid development of the lithium battery industry in the future, the price of lithium ore and the company's profit must be kept high for a long time, such as three to five years. Let the current lithium salt companies, upstream and downstream companies of lithium batteries, and even companies outside the industry have interest and confidence to enter the lithium industry, so as to realize the continuous expansion of lithium ore production in three to five years and meet the needs of new energy development, A group of lithium ore and lithium salt giants with resources and strength were born.
Our salt lake lithium extraction technology originally came from Russia and the west, but after years of investment, now our salt lake lithium extraction technology is not inferior to the west at all.
Our ore taste is not high, but our technology of extracting lithium from ore has also made great progress in recent years. Whether it is extracting lithium from lithium permeable feldspar, lithium mica, or even clay, we are at the top level in the world.
If the industry has profits, high profits, and reasonable or even high valuations, domestic lithium mining companies will have a steady stream of funds, which can attract top talents, develop leading technologies, and constantly obtain control of global lithium resources.
Some people say that most of the profits of high priced lithium salts are distributed by high priced lithium mines, and most of the profits of lithium mines are distributed by foreign companies or local ZFS with high resource taxes. Therefore, under high priced lithium salts and lithium mines, our money is earned by foreign companies or local ZFS! This is unreasonable!
This is reasonable.
Whoever owns and controls lithium ore must own most of the profits. The enterprise owns lithium ore, and most of the profits are from the enterprise; Local governments have the ownership of lithium mines, and most of the profits will be distributed to local governments.
You should develop new energy, environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction. These are very big. But you also need lithium ore in the upstream. Mining, mining and beneficiation will damage the environment to varying degrees. You don't give these companies, places and local residents enough returns, such as environmental restoration funds and considerable material returns. Otherwise, why should local non renewable resources be excavated and why should the local environment be permanently destroyed? In order to achieve new energy and environmental protection in other places?
Even with brine, people have contributed to the global new energy with non renewable resources. It is not too much to get a high income.
Based on the current understanding of minerals, resources and environmental protection around the world, it is impossible to obtain mineral resources at the price of cabbage. Before the awareness of new energy and environmental protection is further awakened, we still have a final time window to make guaranteed strategic investment for the future sources of lithium minerals.
Back home, why should we vigorously exploit the low-grade lithium resources that are not abundant in China? Is it to meet the profit growth demands of some companies?
Our lithium resource reserves are not much, and we will mine all the good ones. Once the international situation changes dramatically in the future, will our lithium mine situation be more passive? Can our energy security be guaranteed? Will it be stuck in the neck of energy security like iron ore, oil and natural gas now?
The taste of many lithium mines in our country is less than 1%, or even about 0.3%, the tailings of better mines abroad are more than 1%, and the taste of some lithium mines that were previously considered to be worthless is also more than 1%, such as the mines acquired by China mineral resources and Huayou cobalt in foreign countries in the past two years.
As for foreign salt lakes, the taste is higher than most of our Salt Lakes by more than one order of magnitude. For example, the concentration of Chaerhan Salt Lake is 37mg/l (0.21g/l in the old brine), while the lithium concentration of Argentina sdla Salt Lake project in Mount Everest, Tibet is 479mg/l. The lithium content of the main salt lakes in South America is between 321-1500mg/l. The lithium content of salt lakes in China is generally significantly lower than that in South America. Only the lithium content of East Taijinar and Zabuye salt lakes is close to that in South America, It is 850mg/l and 489mg/l, and the rest of the salt lakes in Qinghai Tibet are not higher than 300mg / L.
Such a low taste, not to mention the cost, and not to mention the impact of unfinished projects and invalid investments on the local economy and financial resources, that is, the destruction of the environment and the disposal of residues, are great problems in the event of lithium ore prices falling in the future. Jiangxi lepidolite, Sichuan spodumene, Xinjiang spodumene, these are 1.5-2 million tons of raw ore, which can produce a ton of lithium carbonate. But now the price of lithium ore is high, and some enterprises are rushing to mine it. More because of the slow progress of mining in some places due to environmental protection and other reasons, some leading enterprises use a large amount of capital investment as chips, taking advantage of the local psychology based on development and some people's desire for political achievements, We want to forcibly and quickly promote the large-scale development of lithium ore and lithium salt projects.
With this courage, you can be more patient and go global to do exploration, development, acquisition, and even underwriting cooperation.
Have you found a problem? Over the years, most of our lithium ore and lithium salt companies, whether they underwrite high-quality mine salt lakes or purchase ordinary mine salt lakes, have bought them from exploration and mining companies in Australia, Canada and the United States? Moreover, most of them are mines in Africa and salt lakes in South America, not necessarily the domestic resources of these exploration and mining companies.
This first shows that they are not only a big country in resources, but also a powerful country in exploration. We are very lack of these basic work.
In addition, why can some successful acquisitions? Because the markets of Australia and Canada are small, and the capital market is less developed than ours, there is not enough capital, so we need external capital injection. Then why are there many acquisitions that can't or can only be underwritten or cooperative development? I think that people also see the huge prospects and benefits of lithium mine, and don't want to do a one-off deal, but also share the future income.
Expand and strengthen lithium ore and lithium salt companies, give them a certain valuation advantage, let them have capital, confidence, team, dare to go out, have patience to do exploration and development, and have the strength to do acquisition cooperation!
Like China National Mining Corporation, go global to explore resources. Like Tianqi lithium, Ganfeng lithium, Yahua group and Shengxin lithium, go global, underwrite or take shares. Like Mount Everest, Zanger mining and Jinyuan, go global to explore salt lakes with low cost, high taste and large reserves. More importantly, like Tianqi lithium, Ganfeng lithium and Zijin mining, go global and try to dance with global giants, Dare to compete with global giants.
Midstream and downstream giants BYD, Ningde times, and GuoXuan high tech have also made a few moves abroad, but the main ones are still at home. For example, Ningde times plans to mine 200000 tons of lithium carbonate in Yichun and 100 million tons of lithium carbonate a year. Can we look at the world, or cooperate or bind with upstream companies, and be more patient to support professional lithium mines and lithium salt companies to develop globally.
Lithium companies need not only profits, but also valuations. Is it not easy to value the lithium company?
We rely on the huge market and the complete lithium battery industry chain. Why can't we give some valuation premiums to the upstream?
Is lithium not a demand driven increase in both volume and price?
Specifically, in terms of individual stocks, Ganfeng lithium's equity reserves are large enough, the mine grade of Tianqi lithium is high enough, Zijin Mining's Salt Lake investment is large enough, the independent control of Salt Lake shares is very good, nazange mining's five-year plan is bold enough, jiangte Electric has great incremental space, Huayou cobalt industry is fully integrated, the new owner of Tibet Mining has strength, the output of Mount Everest in Tibet is increased fast enough, the starting point of urban investment in Tibet is low Both of the two made by Keda are hard, Tianhua super clean thighs are very thick, the prospecting of China mineral resources is very strong, the progress of Rongjie shares needs to be accelerated, the controlling shareholder of chuanneng power has strength, the output of Yahua group is very radical, the prospecting can also be done, the self owned mine output of Yongxing material has increased greatly, and Shengxin lithium energy is also good at prospecting.
With a good understanding of the industry pattern, we can always find some reasons for valuation premium.
With valuations and profits, go out and don't roll in China, let alone follow the middle and lower reaches. That's not a long-term plan.
Our lithium reserves are unlikely to occupy the main part of lithium supply now or in the future, but these reserves are still very useful at critical moments. The knife that never falls is the most threatening, and the resource that never exploits is the most effective means to suppress the threat of resources.
For the purpose of technical research and public opinion attack and defense, we can mine lithium ores in a small amount or appropriately, but we must not mine in a large amount. This small amount of lithium reserves is the ballast for our future new energy security!
Don't be afraid that now lithium mines and lithium salts companies have more profits. With high profits and appropriate overestimation, domestic companies will have the capital and strength to search for and obtain minerals globally, especially high-quality mines and high-quality salt lakes, to catch up with and surpass the global lithium mining giants, and a real global lithium mining and lithium salts giant will be born in Chinese companies, which will escort the whole new energy industry chain and become the solid cornerstone of the world's leading China's lithium battery industry chain, Let's go faster and further on the road of leading the development of the global new energy and electric vehicle industry chain!
