"After the adjustment in the first half of the year, the construction machinery industry has basically come out of the trough. Next, we are beginning to be optimistic." On July 28, facing the visiting Shanghai Securities News reporter, the relevant person in charge of a leading construction machinery enterprise said.
For the construction machinery industry, June to August is the traditional off-season. But this year is a little different - in the first half of the year, the construction machinery industry was not prosperous enough, but now it is not so weak in the off-season.
Recently, the reporter visited several leading construction machinery enterprises. Although there is no clear data to show that the construction machinery industry has recovered, the signs of recovery and the confidence and confidence of enterprises have significantly increased.
On the one hand, more and more construction sites have started construction, and the operating rate, operating hours and monthly sales volume of construction machinery and equipment have gradually recovered; On the other hand, the steel price showed a downward trend. In late June, the steel price fell below the 5000 yuan / ton mark (taking 3mm hot-rolled ordinary sheet as an example).
Leading enterprises of construction machinery have set their sights on a longer distance. "Internationalization, electrification and digitalization are the next key battles for China's leading construction machinery enterprises, which is a big opportunity and space for the future of China's construction machinery industry." A relevant person from a leading construction machinery enterprise said.
"In the long run, we are more confident"
"In the present, we are more rational; in the long run, we are more confident." A relevant person from Zoomlion said, "first-line data show that June this year was generally better than may, and July was slightly weaker than June, but the year-on-year decline of some products was narrowing."
"In June, our excavator sales have increased month on month." A construction machinery enterprise excavator sector related people told reporters.
It is understood that in the first half of this year, the construction machinery industry encountered delays in the peak season, and many customers placed orders in advance and delayed delivery. "In the first half of this year, we did have many customers who paid the deposit but delayed picking up the goods because the construction site did not start. At present, with the construction site starting in succession, these customers began to pick up the goods in succession." A construction machinery enterprise said.
Based on the high outlook and high performance base of the construction machinery industry in the first half of 2021, the performance of major construction machinery leading enterprises was generally under pressure in the first half of this year. Sany Heavy Industry estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of the year was 2.2 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.16% to 70.22%. Zoomlion predicted that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of the year was about 1.6 billion yuan to 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.76% to 66.88%.
When the industry is at a low ebb, confidence is more valuable. On the evening of July 20, Zoomlion issued a share repurchase plan, which plans to repurchase A-share shares with its own funds with a total amount of no more than 3.987 billion yuan. The repurchase amount is 2.5% to 5% of the total issued share capital of the listed company, and the price of the repurchased shares does not exceed 9.19 yuan / share.
Zoomlion said that the repurchase of shares mainly reflects the firm confidence of the company in the long-term intrinsic value and enhances investors' confidence in the long-term investment of the company. It is understood that the shares repurchased by Zoomlion will be used for the employee stock ownership plan.
The operating rate, operating hours and monthly sales volume have gradually recovered
Signs of recovery in the construction machinery industry are gradually emerging.
First, the operating rate and operating hours of construction machinery and equipment are improving. According to the latest data of "CCTV financial excavator index", the average monthly operating rate of construction machinery in the first half of 2022 was 60.37%, and 66.77% in the second quarter, significantly higher than 53.98% in the first quarter.
From the perspective of equipment type, the average operation volume of pavers has increased for five consecutive months, and the cumulative average operation volume increased by 124% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. The average monthly operating rate of truck cranes was 73.94% in the first quarter and 80.21% in the second quarter, an increase over the first quarter.
"The number of operating hours of construction machinery and equipment has also rebounded significantly. In the past three months, it has rebounded at a rate of about 5% per month. According to the current trend, it should continue to rebound." A construction machinery leading enterprise excavator sector related sources said.
Secondly, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly sales of construction machinery represented by excavators is expected to return to positive in the second half of this year, and at least the decline will be significantly narrowed.
According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 20761 excavators of various types were sold in June 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. Among them, there are 11027 sets in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 35%; 9734 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 58.4%.
The above statistics show that from January to June 2022, 26 excavator manufacturers sold 143094 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 36.1%. Among them, domestic 91124 units, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9%; 51970 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.2%.
Data shows that the monthly sales volume of excavators has fallen for six consecutive months this year, but the decline has narrowed in the last two months.
A research report pointed out that under the background of steady growth, infrastructure construction will continue to work, and more quantities will be concentrated in the second half of the year. The centralized commencement of engineering projects may bring new demand for excavators. It is expected that the sales of excavators in the second half of the year will achieve positive growth year-on-year.
Liu Gong said that with the continuous increase of the national steady growth policy, the construction machinery industry has ushered in substantial benefits. It is predicted that the decline rate of the industry will narrow in the second quarter and usher in a better transformation in the second half of the year.
New space of construction machinery industry: internationalization, electrification and digitalization
"After the last cycle, the development quality of everyone is obviously different from that in the past, and credit sales are also extremely restrained, so this round of adjustment will not be deep or long." The relevant person in charge of a leading construction machinery enterprise said.
The relevant person in charge of Liugong believes that the industry will no longer show a "V" shaped change as before, but enter a platform period, showing a relatively volatile situation.
Leading enterprises of construction machinery will further enhance their concentration and gain greater competitive advantages. Leading construction machinery enterprises have set their sights on internationalization, electrification and digitalization.
Sany said at the performance presentation meeting held in late June that the construction machinery market is cyclical, but the industry cycle is gradually weakening. Internationalization, electrification and digitalization have become the development trend of China's construction machinery industry, which has ushered in a long-term technological rise cycle.
"In June, almost half of the monthly sales of excavators were used for export. Leading enterprises are getting better and better at going to sea, which will greatly stabilize the cyclical fluctuations in China's construction machinery industry and bring broad development space." A construction machinery industry researcher said.
In the record of investor relations activities disclosed on July 26, China railway construction heavy industry said that from January to June 2022, the newly signed contract amount of overseas business reached 903 million yuan, an increase of 126.25% over the same period last year.
On July 22, CIMC and XCMG reached a strategic cooperation to jointly layout innovative businesses such as hydrogen energy machinery and low-carbon recycling vehicles.
According to the Research Report of BOC securities, in the context of business diversification, leading construction machinery enterprises represented by Zoomlion have accelerated the layout, transformation and upgrading of internationalization, electrification and intelligence in recent years. The overseas market has further promoted the global localization strategy, focused on key countries and regions, and built an overseas business system based on end-to-end, digitalization and localization. The overseas market has achieved sustained high growth. Under the background of "double carbon", the electrification trend of construction machinery in the future is obvious. At present, the penetration rate of electrification products is very low, and electrification will inject new impetus into the development of the industry in the future. In addition, the construction of digital platform is expected to accelerate the intelligent upgrading of production and manufacturing, and further consolidate the foundation of high-quality development.
