Yingda securities released a research report saying that with the guidance of national policies, the electrification process of construction machinery will continue to accelerate. At present, the penetration rate of domestic electric engineering machinery is relatively low. Referring to the explosive growth of new energy passenger vehicles, the bank believes that the battery cost will be further reduced, and the penetration rate of electric engineering machinery will increase rapidly in the next three years. It is expected to increase to 35% by 2025. Head construction machinery enterprises around the world have made in-depth layout of electrification equipment, and global construction machinery leaders such as Caterpillar, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, Zoomlion and so on continue to launch various types of electrification construction machinery products. The bank believes that the construction machinery industry will develop in the direction of electrification and intelligence in the future. The market will be driven by stock substitution and penetration improvement. The construction machinery market will enter a new round of development cycle.
Yingda securities' main views are as follows:
Policies promote the electrification of construction machinery.
From the perspective of policies, the relevant policies of the construction machinery industry in recent years mainly favor the clearance of old and highly polluting construction machinery products, and guide the clean and high-tech development of the construction machinery industry. The central government points out the direction for the development of electric construction machinery from the aspects of emission reduction targets, prevention and control technologies and support policies. The relevant policies and plans of various provinces and cities for the construction machinery industry have been issued successively. According to the policies and plans of various provinces and cities for the construction machinery industry, most provinces and cities have proposed to replace high emission construction machinery, support energy-saving and environmental protection related products, and improve the green manufacturing capacity of construction machinery products.
The construction machinery market is still on the rise.
China has a huge space for economic development, a huge scale of infrastructure construction, and the construction machinery market is still in the rising period. Both stock renewal and new demand are emphasized. During the "14th five year plan" period, construction machinery is still promising. In recent years, the sales volume of major construction machinery products in China has increased significantly, and the market is running well. In 2021, the total sales volume of major construction machinery products in China exceeded 1.67 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The number of construction machinery in China is nearly ten million, and the future demand has entered a new era. In 2021, the operating revenue of China's construction machinery industry reached 800billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 3.21%. The 14th five year plan for construction machinery proposes that the overall operating income of the construction machinery industry will reach 900billion yuan in 2025, with an average annual growth of 3-5%.
The incremental space and replacement space of new energy engineering machinery are huge.
At present, the number of major domestic construction machinery products is more than 9million, and the annual growth rate is more than 400000. The penetration rate of new energy construction machinery is less than 1%. Referring to the rapid increase in the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles, the bank believes that under the background of policy promotion and environmental protection pressure, the penetration rate of electrification of construction machinery will also increase rapidly in the next few years, and it is expected that the penetration rate will exceed 30% in 2025. The bank believes that as the lithium battery industry chain continues to mature, the battery cost will further decline, and the electrification penetration rate of construction machinery can be increased to 35% by 2025.
New energy engineering machinery has obvious advantages in economic benefits.
On the cost side, batteries account for 40% - 50% of the total cost of electric construction machinery. With the gradual improvement of the lithium battery industry chain, the price of lithium-ion battery packs has decreased rapidly. The electric construction machinery market broke out driven by policies. Compared with the traditional fuel engineering machinery, the economy of electric construction machinery is reflected through the use process. The comprehensive total cost during the use period, electric construction machinery has more advantages. The bank believes that cost saving at the operation end is the main economic factor for electric engineering machinery to truly replace traditional fuel engineering machinery. Through calculation, the current electric construction machinery has greater advantages in the use end cost than fuel engineering machinery, and the saved cost can completely cover the purchase end cost. Taking loaders as an example, the bank calculates that the operating cost of pure electric loaders is more than 1.089 million yuan and that of fuel loaders is more than 2.762 million yuan in the five-year cycle, which can fully cover the price difference of 450000 yuan at the purchase end.
Traditional construction machinery manufacturers have obvious advantages in electrification.
The market concentration of the construction machinery industry is high, and the market concentration of China's construction machinery shows an increasing trend year by year. In 2021, the total global market share of the top ten enterprises in the construction machinery industry was 65.3%, of which caterpillar ranked first with a market share of 13%, followed by Komatsu and XCMG, with market share of 10.4% and 7.9% respectively. The new energy construction machinery market has shown a situation of competition, and traditional construction machinery OEMs have deployed in the field of new energy construction machinery. Global construction machinery leaders such as Caterpillar, Volvo Construction equipment, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, etc. have launched several electric construction machinery products.
