In terms of big data, the overall sales decline of excavators is not obvious due to the excellent performance of overseas exports (at present, the monthly export volume has approached 10000 units, and the monthly export volume has been very close to the annual export volume of previous years). The overall domestic sales decline should be 40%. The worst part of the overall construction industry should be the real estate sector, and the index of newly added housing has declined in a large area. Therefore, the sales of concrete equipment and tower cranes should decline very seriously, with an estimated decline of about 60%. These two types of products are rarely used in foreign developed markets, and the process of sales recovery in the future should be very slow.
Crane equipment, on the one hand, due to the pressure of the real estate industry chain, on the other hand, due to the large promotion of wind power construction, the two phases are superimposed. On the whole, it should be small and medium tonnage cranes, which are difficult and difficult. There is no work, and there is excess equipment. Large tonnage cranes still have opportunities. It is estimated that the profit performance of the production end of crane equipment depends on the further domestic replacement of parts.
Aerial work platform equipment is still in the state of demand expansion, but it is obvious that the sharpness of expansion is declining. The cause of formation is very complex, so I won't repeat it here.
At this time point, the overall construction machinery sector can see more reversals, and the hope is actually excavators.
In my understanding, there are only two issues worthy of in-depth study and consideration.
1. If there is a large-scale infrastructure stimulus, can the sales performance of excavators rise rapidly in the short term?
2. Can the high growth of overseas exports be sustained?
The first question has been answered after a long discussion with several senior people in the industry. The second question, I really don't understand.
On the first question, the key to understanding this problem is that in this round of construction machinery cycle, the product form has undergone great changes, and the whole industry is switching to economic products. The change of product form has caused the rapid decline of value center and price center. This decline has brought about a problem. Although they are all cycles, from the perspective of the previous cycle, this cycle looks a little similar on the surface, and the actual evolution logic is completely different.
For example, the market clearing problem.
Now, in order to repay the machine loan, many excavator owners obtain additional income repayment by delivering takeout, opening Didi, and working as machine operators for others. These things did not appear in the last round.
In the last cycle, in the high price system dominated by foreign brands, the derivation of risks mainly depends on the down payment link, which is essentially to grasp the sunk costs of customers. This round of decline is in the price system dominated by economic models. The derivation of risk has changed, the buffer zone has become very narrow, and there is little room to move.
The cycle will not disappear, and the risk is only in another form.
I think this is the key point to understand the first question. If you understand this key point, you can get a good answer to the first question.
The second question is really not clear. After asking several friends, they all think it is difficult to continue, but it is difficult to explain the internal logic.
My personal vague feeling:
In overseas markets, especially in the best European and American markets, the key driving factors of sales are likely not to be very short delivery time and good cost performance. If these two are the key drivers, in fact, the current overseas sales growth rate should be much higher than 100%. You know, it takes two years for the United States to buy a bulldozer now.
If the sales volume of domestic brands cannot increase explosively in this way, it may be far away from the next time such a rare supply chain is in an emergency.
