In May, the heavy truck and trailer markets increased month on month, but they were still "significantly lower" year on year. In June, the situation of epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, and market demand was slowly recovering. Although the heavy truck market continues to decline, it has achieved growth for two consecutive months month on month. What is the situation of the trailer market? Please see the analysis report.
29300 vehicles were sold in June, up 25% month on month and down 64% year on year
According to the latest information, according to the data of China Automobile Association (the caliber of enterprise Invoicing, the caliber of non terminal actual sales, the same below), in June 2022, China's heavy truck market sold 55100 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 65%. Among them, as the most concerned segment of the heavy truck market, the trailer market also showed a month on month increase and year-on-year decrease in June: Sales of 29300 vehicles, a month on month increase of 25%, a year-on-year decrease of 64%, a decrease of 8 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month (-72%), and the decline finally fell below 70% after the trailer market suffered a sharp decline of more than 70% for three consecutive months. As of June 2022, the trailer market has been declining for 15 consecutive months.
Looking at the sales volume and growth trend of the trailer market in June in recent five years, in June of the last five years, the trailer market has achieved continuous growth in 2019 and 2020. 85900 units in June 2020 was the peak sales volume of the trailer market in June of recent five years. In June 2021, the trailer market fell by 5% and the sales volume also exceeded 80000 units. Therefore, there is no doubt that the trailer market will continue to decline in June this year. In June this year, the sales volume of 29300 trailers in the trailer market was at the lowest level in recent five years, which was only equivalent to about 35% of the sales volume in June of the previous two years, and it was also much worse than that in June of 2018 and 2019.
After June, the cumulative sales volume of the trailer market this year was less than 200000, down 67% from 530800 in the same period last year, with a net decrease of more than 350000, less than one third of the cumulative sales volume in the first half of last year. According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, the heavy truck market has been depressed for a long time due to the low road freight rates (especially the impact on the trailer market) and the national six-year switch. Although the market demand is slowly recovering, it does not seem obvious. Although the impact of epidemic factors on the market is much better than that of previous months, the trailer market will not perform well even without epidemic factors when the demand is weak. Therefore, it is not easy for the trailer market to achieve a month on month growth of 18% and 25% respectively in May and June (the month on month growth rate is better than the overall growth rate of the heavy truck market). It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the trailer market this year has been expanding since February, and has fallen by 68% since May. This momentum finally "stopped" in June. The cumulative sales decline of the trailer market from January to June narrowed slightly compared with that from January to May. Although it narrowed by only 1 percentage point, it is too "precious" in the current market environment of continuous sharp decline.
None of the enterprises sold more than 10000 yuan, and XCMG increased alone in the top six
In June, the trailer market fell by 64% year-on-year, 8 percentage points narrower than last month (the trailer market fell by 72% year-on-year in May), and about 52000 vehicles were sold less than the same period last year, only equivalent to 36% of the sales in the same period last year. In terms of the top ten enterprises in sales volume in June, 1 increase and 9 decrease: XCMG heavy trucks achieved growth. XCMG sold 761 vehicles in June, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. You know, the trailer market has been "completely destroyed" for four consecutive months, and the last time an enterprise achieved growth was in January; The decline of enterprises reached double digits. Five of the top ten enterprises in sales fell by more than 60%. The sales volume of the enterprises with the most serious decline fell by 92% year-on-year in June. However, many enterprises, including Shaanxi Automobile, Futian, Universiade, beiben, Hanma technology and so on, fell less than the overall decline of the trailer market, outperforming the "overall market".
Like the heavy truck market, the sales volume of the trailer market in June increased significantly month on month, with a growth rate of 25%. The month on month growth rate continues to be higher than that of the heavy truck market as a whole. In terms of mainstream enterprises, most enterprises achieved month on month growth. Eight of the top ten enterprises in sales volume achieved growth in June, of which Shaan auto increased by 62% month on month, and Jiefang and Futian also achieved 37% month on month growth in sales volume in June compared with May.
In June, no enterprise sold more than 10000 vehicles in the trailer market, and no enterprise sold more than 10000 vehicles in the trailer market for five consecutive months. In June, the total share of the top ten enterprises in trailer sales reached 98.88%, and only about 1% was shared by enterprises outside the top ten. In June, the monthly share of the top five enterprises in the trailer market sales exceeded 10%, with a total share of 87.62%. The total share of the top five enterprises in the industry continued to exceed 85%, which was also expanded from the previous month (86.26%).
In terms of cumulative sales, the trailer market sold a total of 173200 vehicles in the first half of this year, down 67% year-on-year. The cumulative decline was slightly narrower than that in the previous may (-68%), a decrease of about 358000 vehicles compared with the same period last year, less than 1/3 of the cumulative sales in the same period last year. In terms of the top ten enterprises in terms of sales volume, all 10 enterprises are in the decline range, and the cumulative decline has reached double digits. The decline of heavy truck, Futian, Universiade, XCMG, beiben, Hanma technology and other enterprises is lower than 67% of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "overall market". Among them, the cumulative sales volume of Dayun heavy truck and Hanma technology in the first half of this year decreased by 35% and 32% respectively, making them the only two enterprises in the top ten enterprises in terms of sales volume with a cumulative decline of less than 40%.
In terms of cumulative share, the total share of the top ten enterprises in sales reached 98.95%, the total share of the top five enterprises in sales reached 87.53%, and the total share of the industry top5 in the trailer market in the first half of this year was close to 90%. Among them, the shares of Jiefang and heavy truck both exceeded 20%, reaching 22.24% and 22.07% respectively, and the cumulative share gap was only 0.17%; Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng and Futian respectively shared 16.22%, 13.54% and 13.46% of the trailer market in the first six months of this year. The gap between adjacent enterprises has not been widened, and the final ranking of the top five seats in the industry is still in suspense.
In the first half of this year, the cumulative share of heavy truck, Universiade, Futian, Hanma technology, beiben and other enterprises in the trailer market increased, of which the cumulative share of heavy truck in the first half of this year increased by 5.97 percentage points over the same period last year; This year, Universiade heavy truck has maintained the top six of the monthly list in the trailer market for six consecutive months, and its "play" is very stable, with its cumulative share increased by 2.97% over the same period last year. In addition, the cumulative shares of Foton, XCMG, beiben and Hanma technology in the first half of this year increased by 1.64%, 0.67%, 0.42% and 0.57% respectively compared with the same period last year.
From the perspective of industry structure, the top ten members of the trailer market in June this year are the same as the top ten members in May, and the ranking has changed a lot: Shaanxi Automobile jumped to the top of the list from the second place in May, which is the first time that Shaanxi Automobile won the champion of the monthly list of the trailer market in the year; Liberation rose 1 place to the second place from the third place in May; Fukuda rose 1 place to 3 from the 4th place in May; Hanma technology rose 1 place to 9 place from the 10th place in the monthly list in May.
Like the heavy truck market, the trailer market experienced a bleak "peak sales season" in March and April, and achieved month on month growth for two consecutive months in May and June. However, in terms of the sales volume of less than 30000 trailers in June, it is still too early to say "recovery". In the first six months of this year, the average sales volume of the trailer market was only 28800, which was slightly better than that in the last few months of last year (the average monthly sales volume of trailers from August to December 2021 was only 22300), but it was still at a low level. In July 2021, the sales volume of the trailer market was only more than 30000. Combined with the current market situation, the first growth of the trailer market this year is very likely to be achieved in July.
